隨著氣候的驟變，造成許多無法挽回的災難，永續發展管理逐漸顯現其重要性。擁有27個會員國的歐盟，涵蓋大部分歐洲地區，賡續執行「歐洲空間發展遠景」(European Spatial Development Perspective)政策，以確保歐洲大陸能永續發展。雖然永續指標已被歐盟運用在「驅動力-壓力-現況-衝擊-回應 (Driving forces-Pressure- State- Impact- Response, DPSIR)」架構內，系統化地描述環境問題，並在歐盟環境政策週期中扮演重要角色。但由於DPSIR架構因果關係解釋能力缺乏實證基礎，與預測性指標系統建立的必要性，本研究擬進ㄧ步探討DPSIR架構，以滿足上述兩項需求。
首先，本研究參照DPSIR架構各構面特性，自「歐盟永續發展指標」內選取28個指標，並採用歐盟27國2005與2006年間28個指標資料，以部份最小平方法(Partial Least Squares, PLS)方式，驗證DPSIR架構各構面間之因果關係，為後續的DPSIR架構發展提供實證基礎。再者，為建立DPSIR預防性聯合永續指標系統，將本研究發展之社會回應積極性指標，搭配Tapio脫鉤指標，建立一個3x3的「社會回應積極性－脫鉤聯合分析表」，以調查目標國家環境、經濟、與社會三者之互動情況，依照環境問題直接性與嚴重性，擬定施政優先順序；最後，以溫室氣體排放議題作案例模擬，運用歐盟23國2006與2007年5個指標資料，驗證預防性聯合永續指標之可行性。
本研究有兩項主要貢獻：第一，為DPSIR架構構面間之因果關係賦予實證基礎；此外，決策者的政策邏輯、政策發酵遞延、政策貫徹情況、與受損環境回復力等因素影響，可能會使得社會回應的成效不如預期，值得決策者於採取政策回應措施前事先預防。第二，發展社會回應積極性指標，並據以建立「社會回應積極性－脫鉤聯合分析表」，以深入研究經濟、社會發展所衍生之環境問題，並對不同社會回應積極性與脫鉤狀況的國家，建議政策處理優先順序，使決策者將有限資源做最即時、有效之運用。此預防性聯合永續指標系統有數項優點：瞭解社會對環境問題積極性、同時觀察經濟與社會對環境問題態度、比較多國經濟、社會永續的發展情況、以宏觀角度整理與歸納問題、和提供警訊與鼓勵永續學習。

Managing environmental sustainability gradually reveals its importance along with the increasing and irreversible destructions to the ecosystem. With 27 member countries, the European Union (EU) has applied indicators and the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to manage sustainable progress. Though the sustainable indicators in the DPSIR framework systematically structure environmental problems in the EU policy lifecycle, the DPSIR framework remains subject to certain criticisms. Moreover, the policymaker still needs more information to detect future environmental risks and take measures in advance. To meet the needs above, this study plans to further explore the DPSIR framework.
To begin with, the DPSIR framework was used to select 28 indicators, as well as to collect corresponding data for 27 member states between 2005 and 2006.The partial-least-squares (PLS) technology will be applied to determine the cause-and-effect relationships among constructs. Next, this study refers to Tapio’s decoupling concepts and then develops the idea of societal response initiative. By integrating these categories of societal response initiative and decoupling, a 3x3 joint “Societal Response Initiative- Decoupling Joint Analysis Table” is formed. This table can help understand the sustainable attitudes of economy and society towards environmental problems and further decide policy priority to effect risk preventions. The study finally designs a scenario of greenhouse gas emissions to demonstrate the new DPSIR indicator system with the aggregate EU-23 data between 2006 and 2007.
This study has two main contributions: First, this study provides the DPSIR framework with an empirical foundation for its explanatory ability of causal links among constructs. Secondly, this article develops jointly sustainable preventive indicators in order to systematically seek the possible causes of environmental problems derived from the development of the economy and the society. By doing so, the decision-maker can detect future environmental problems and allocate resources most timely and effectively.

論文審定書………………………………………………………………………………i
誌謝…………………………………………………………………………...………....ii
中文摘要………………………………………………………………………...……...iii
英文摘要.……………………………………………………………………………….iv
目錄…………………………………………………………………...…………………v
圖次………………………………...…………………………………………………..vii
表次………………………………………………………………...………………….viii
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………..1
第一節 研究背景與動機………………………………………...………………..1
第二節 研究目的…………………………………………………...……………..4
第三節 研究流程…………………………………………………………...……..5
第四節 研究範圍與限制……………………………………………...…………..7
第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………...………….8
第一節 環境永續指標之意義與運用範圍…………………………………...…..8
第二節 DPSIR指標架構之演進與應用………………………………..…….….11
第三節 歐盟永續指標之發展與政策運用……………………………...………14
第四節 社會對環境問題回應力之影響因素……………………………...……18
第五節 減緩與適應策略…………………………………………….…..………21
第六節 經濟活動與環境壓力脫鉤概念………………………………….…..…24
第三章 研究設計………………………………………………………….…..…...27
第一節 研究架構……………………………………………………….……..…27
第二節 研究方法………………………………………………………….…..…29
第三節 資料蒐集原則與過程…………………………………………….…..…33
第四章 以歐盟資料實證DPSIR架構之因果關係………………..……….36
第一節 DPSIR架構構面間關係與研究假說………………………………...…36
第二節 部分最小平方法之運用……………………………………...…………39
第三節 實證資料………………………………………………...………………40
第四節 以部分最小平方法實證DPSIR架構………………..…………………45
第五節 實證結果討論……………………………………………...……………47
第五章 以社會回應積極性-脫勾聯合指標探討環境潛在問題…………49
第一節 社會回應力積極性指標彈性與分類………………………………...…49
第二節 社會回應積極性－脫鉤聯合分析表………………………………...…52
第三節 歐盟溫室氣體排放議題案例模擬………………………...……………55
第四節 實證結果分析與探討…………………………………...………………57
第六章 結論與建議………………………………………………...……………67
第一節 結論…………………………………………………...…………………67
第二節 建議……………………………………………………...………………70
第三節 管理意涵…………………………………………...……………………73
參考文獻…………………………………………………………...……………..….74

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