Responsive image
博碩士論文 etd-0118110-105845 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0118110-105845
論文名稱
Title
線上英式拍賣兩人競標之買家策略
The Bidding Strategy of Two-people English Online Auction
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
145
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2010-01-04
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2010-01-18
關鍵字
Keywords
英式拍賣、線上拍賣、買家策略、順序決策、進場決策、出價決策
Jump Decision, Sequence Decision, Bid Decision, Bidding Strategy, English Auction, Online Auction
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5820 次,被下載 2088
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5820 times, has been downloaded 2088 times.
中文摘要
線上英式拍賣受到眾多買家的歡迎,創造比傳統拍賣更大的商機。然而其特性迥異於傳統拍賣:歷時長、幅員廣、風險高、情蒐容易、進出門檻低等,造成買家搜尋商品容易,得標困難,買家的交易成本結構,也由資訊收集階段轉為交易契約階段,顯示買家為了獲得預期的競標結果,更需要精準的決策工具。
本研究旨在為競標者提出最佳買家策略,分為三個維度:順序決策(要先出價嗎?)、進場決策(出價或放棄?)、出價決策(增額多少?)。本研究將競標者簡化為2人,在討論三個維度的策略組合時,以「底價、最小遞增金額」作為賣場的屬性,「願付價格、出價成本」作為競標者的屬性,藉以觀察這些屬性參數,對拍賣結果的影響,包括誰得標、回合數、成交價、得標和放棄效益、得標率,以及效益期望值等,以歸納出,不同特性的買家,適合採用何種策略組合。
研究結果顯示,在順序決策方面,先、後出價者,分別有其弱優勢策略,然而其對競標結果的影響,低於進場決策;在進場決策方面,放棄效益恆以保本進場較高,競標回合、得標機率恆以樂觀進場較高,而得標效益與效益期望值不必然何者較高;在出價決策方面,緩增及躍進出價各有價值,當競爭舒緩或是商品價格分歧時,宜採緩增出價,反之,宜採躍進出價。與以往文獻相較,本研究產生數個新結論,包括線上英式拍賣不總是具有交易效率、躍進出價亦是理性行為及最佳出價額等。
藉由本研究之模式,競標者得以視自身條件,以及標的物屬性,在競標前即推估出得標機率及期望效益,並針對不同競價情境,找出自己所適合的競價策略。
Abstract
The English online auction creates great business opportunities. However, it’s different from traditional English auction in long bidding time, wide area, high risk, massive information, and low switching cost. It makes bidders easy to search information of the goods but difficult to win the auction. The bidders' transaction cost structure has changed from information phase to agreement phase. So, the bidders need more precise supporting tools to help them make decisions.
The aim of this research is to investigate two-person optimal bidding strategies under three dimensions of the decision space: the sequence decision (bid firstly or later), the bid decision (bid or quit), and the jump decision (minimum increase or jump bid). It is assumed that there are two bidders competing in one auction. Variables associated with the auction system include the floor price and the minimum increase. Variables associated with the bidders include the private value of the bidding object, and the cost of bid per turn. Strategies were evaluated based on the following criteria: who wins, how many turns to win the bid, the deal price, the utility of the winner and the loser, the probability of winning, and the expected utility.
The results indicate that every strategy has its advantages and disadvantages under certain conditions. This research provides guiding rules for the bidders to choose a better strategy.
目次 Table of Contents
目錄 1
圖目錄 3
表目錄 5
誌謝 7
摘要 8
Abatract 9
第1章 緒論 10
1.1 背景說明 10
1.2 研究動機與目的 16
1.3 論文架構 17
第2章 文獻回顧 18
2.1 拍賣理論的發展 18
2.2 交易市場的效率與柏拉圖最適 19
2.3 不對稱競爭與競價者出價行為 20
2.4 決策準則 21
2.5 最適出價策略 23
2.6 拍賣成本、願付價格與效益 24
2.7 贏家的詛咒 27
2.8 躍進出價與緩增出價 28
2.9 本研究與相關文獻之關係 29
第3章 競標模式 31
3.1 競標者的決策組合 31
3.2 模式變數定義 35
3.3 出價流程圖 36
第4章 情境分析 41
4.1 S1:兩方均採「樂觀進場、緩增出價」 41
4.2 S2:雙方均「樂觀進場」,A「躍進出價」,B「緩增出價」 59
4.3 S10:雙方均採「保本進場、緩增出價」策略 69
4.4 各情境總歸納 80
第5章 結論 85
5.1 研究發現 85
5.2 討論 86
5.3 研究限制 87
5.4 研究之過去與未來 89
參考文獻 92
附錄 99
附錄.1 S3:雙方均「樂觀進場」,A「緩增出價」,B「躍進出價」 99
附錄.2 S4:雙方均「緩增出價」,A「保本進場」,B「樂觀進場」 101
附錄.3 S5:A「保本進場、躍進出價」,B「樂觀進場、緩增出價」 115
附錄.4 S6:A「保本進場、緩增出價」,B「樂觀進場、躍進出價」 117
附錄.5 S7:A「樂觀進場」,B「保本進場」,兩人「緩增出價」 123
附錄.6 S8:A「樂觀進場、躍進出價」,B「保本進場、緩增出價」 132
附錄.7 S9:A「樂觀進場、緩增出價」,B「保本進場、躍進出價」 138
附錄.8 S11:A「保本進場、躍進出價」,B「保本進場、緩增出價」 140
附錄.9 S12:A「保本進場、緩增出價」,B「保本進場、躍進出價」 142
參考文獻 References
2008資訊服務產業年鑑編纂小組. 2008資訊服務產業年鑑, 經濟部, 2008.
2009資訊服務產業年鑑編纂小組. 2009資訊服務產業年鑑, 經濟部, 2009.
Avery, C. "Strategic Jump Bidding in English Auctions," The Review of Economic Studies (65:2), 1998, pp. 185-210.
Bajari, P., and A. Hortacsu. "Economic Insights from Internet Auctions," Journal of Economic Literature (42:2), 2004, pp. 457-486.
Bandyopadhyay, S., J. M. Barron, and A. R. Chaturvedi. "Competition among Sellers in Online Exchanges," Information Systems Research (16:1), 2005, pp. 47-60.
Bapna, R., P. Goes, and A. Gupta. "Analysis and Design of Business-to-Consumer Online Auctions," Management Science (49:1), 2003, pp. 85-101.
———. "Insights and Analyses of Online Auctions," Communications of the ACM (44:11), 2001, pp. 42-50.
———. "Replicating Online Yankee Auctions to Analyze Auctioneers' and Bidders' Strategies," Information Systems Research (14:3), 2003, pp. 244-268.
Beam, C., and A. Segev. "Auctions on the Internet: A Field Study," Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley, 1998.
Bosnjak, M., D. Obermeier, and T. L. Tuten. "Predicting and Explaining the Propensity to Bid in Online Auctions: A Comparison of Two Action-Theoretical Models," Journal of Consumer Behaviour (5:2), 2006, pp. 102-116.
Capen, E. C., R. V. Clapp, and W. M. Campbell. "Competitive Bidding in High-Risk Situations," Journal of Petroleum Technology (23:6), 1971, pp. 641–53.
Coppinger, V. M., V. L. Smith, and J. A. Titus. "Incentives and Behavior in English, Dutch and Sealed-Bid Auctions." Economic Inquiry (18:1), 1980, pp. 1-22.
Cox, J. C., B. Roberson, and V. L. Smith. "Theory and Behavior of Single Object Auctions," Research in Experimental Economics (2), 1982, pp. 1-43.
Cox, J. C., V. L. Smith, and J. M. Walker. "A Test that Discriminates between Two Models of the Dutch-First Auction Non-Isomorphism," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (4:2), 1983, pp. 205-219.
Cox, R. "Bid Increments in Second-Price Sealed Bid Auctions," Microeconomics 0506008, EconWPA, 2005.
Dodds, W. B., and K. B. Monroe. "The Effect of Brand and Price Information on Subjective Product Evaluations," Advances in Consumer Research (12:1), 1985, pp. 85-90.
Dodds, W. B., K. B. Monroe, and D. Grewal. "Effects of Price, Brand, and Store Information on Buyers’ Product Evaluations," Journal of Marketing Research (28:3), 1991, pp. 307-319.
Dodonova, A., and Y. Khoroshilov. "Jump Bidding in Takeover Auctions," Economics Letters (92:3), 2006, pp. 339-341.
Easley, R. F., and R. Tenorio. "Jump Bidding Strategies in Internet Auctions," Management Science (50:10), 2004, pp. 1407-1419.
Frank, R. H., B. S. Bernanke, and R. T. Kaufman. Principles of Economics, McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2001.
Friedman, D. "On the Efficiency of Experimental Double Auction Markets," The American Economic Review, 1984, pp. 60-72.
Friedman, L. "A Competitive Bidding Strategy," Operations Research (4:1), 1956, pp. 104-112.
Grewal, D., R. Krishnan, J. Baker, and N. Borin. "The Effect of Store Name, Brand Name and Price Discounts on Consumers' Evaluations and Purchase Intentions," Journal of Retailing (74:3), 1998, pp. 331-352.
Griesmer, J. H., R. E. Levitan, and M. Shubik. Toward a Study of Bidding Processes: Part IV, Games with Unknown Costs, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University, New Haven, Conn., 1968.
Harris, M., and A. Raviv. "Allocation Mechanisms and the Design of Auctions," Econometrica (49:6), 1981, pp. 1477-1499.
Harstad, R. M., and M. H. Rothkopf. "An" Alternating Recognition" Model of English Auctions," Management Science (46:1), 2000, pp. 1-12.
Hofacker, C. F. Internet Marketing, Digital Springs, Incorporated, 1999.
Isaac, R. M., T. C. Salmon, and A. Zillante. "A Theory of Jump Bidding in Ascending Auctions," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (62:1), 2007, pp. 144-164.
Kagel, J. H., R. M. Harstad, and D. Levin. "Information Impact and Allocation Rules in Auctions with Affiliated Private Values: A Laboratory Study," Econometrica (55:6), 1987, pp. 1275-1304.
Kagel, J. H., and D. Levin. Common Value Auctions and the Winner's Curse, Princeton University Press, 2002.
———. "Independent Private Value Auctions: Bidder Behaviour in First-, Second-and Third-Price Auctions with Varying Numbers of Bidders," The Economic Journal (103:419), 1993, pp. 868-879.
Kannan, P. K., and P. K. Kopalle. "Dynamic Pricing on the Internet: Importance and Implications for Consumer Behavior," International Journal of Electronic Commerce (5:3), 2001, pp. 63-83.
Karni, E., and Z. Safra. "Dynamic Consistency, Revelations in Auctions and the Structure of Preferences," The Review of Economic Studies (56:3), 1989, pp. 421-433.
Klein, S., and R. M. O'Keefe. "The Impact of the Web on Auctions: Some Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Considerations," International Journal of Electronic Commerce (3:3), 1999a, pp. 7-20.
———. "The Impact of the Web on Auctions: Some Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Considerations," International Journal of Electronic Commerce (3:3), 1999b, pp. 7-20.
Klemperer, P. "Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys (13:3), 1999, pp. 227-286.
———. "Auctions with almost Common Values: The ‘Wallet Game’and its Applications," European Economic Review (42:3-5), 1998, pp. 757-769.
———. The Economic Theory of Auctions., Edward Elgar2000.
Laffont, J. J., and E. Maskin. "Optimal Reservation Price in the Vickrey Auction," Economics Letters (6:4), 1980, pp. 309-313.
Lopomo, G. "The English Auction is Optimal among Simple Sequential Auctions," Journal of Economic Theory (82:1), 1998, pp. 144-166.
Lucking-Reiley, D. "Using Field Experiments to Test Equivalence between Auction Formats: Magic on the Internet," The American Economic Review (89:5), 1999, pp. 1063-1080.
Mankiw, N. G. Principles of Economics, South-Western Pub, 2008.
Maskin, E. S., and J. G. Riley. "Auctions with Asymmetric Beliefs," Working Paper no. 254, University of California, Los Angeles, 1983.
Massad, V., and J. Tucker. "Comparing Bidding and Pricing between in-Person and Online Auctions," Journal of Product and Brand Management (9:5), 2000, pp. 325-340.
McAfee, R. P., and J. McMillan. "Auctions and Bidding," Journal of Economic Literature (25:2), 1987, pp. 699-738.
McCain, R. A. Game Theory: A Non-Technical Introduction to the Analysis of Strategy, South-Western Educational Publishing, 2003.
Mester, L. J. "Going, Going, Gone: Setting Prices with Auctions," Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review1988, pp. 3–13.
Milgrom, P. "Auctions and Bidding: A Primer," Journal of Economic Perspectives (3:3), 1989, pp. 3-22.
Milgrom, P., and R. J. Weber. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica (50:5), 1982, pp. 1089-1122.
Myerson, R. B. "Optimal Auction Design," Mathematics of Operations Research (6:1), 1981, pp. 58-73.
Oh, W. "C2C Versus B2C: A Comparison of the Winner's Curse in Two Types of Electronic Auctions," International Journal of Electronic Commerce (6:4), 2002, pp. 115-138.
Oren, M., and A. Williams. "On Competitive Bidding," Operations Research (23:6), 1975, pp. 1072-1079.
Pinker, E. J., A. Seidmann, and Y. Vakrat. "Managing Online Auctions: Current Business and Research Issues," Management Science (49:11), 2003, pp. 1457-1484.
Prince, D. How to Sell Anything on eBay... and make a Fortune! Organizer, McGraw-Hill Pub. Co., 2005.
Reichert, A. O. "Models for Competitive Bidding Under Uncertainty," Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Operations Research Technical Report no. 8, Stanford University, 1968.
Riley, J. G., and W. F. Samuelson. "Optimal Auctions," The American Economic Review (71:3), 1981, pp. 381-392.
Rothkopf, M. H., and R. M. Harstad. "Modeling Competitive Bidding: A Critical Essay," Management Science (40:3), 1994, pp. 364-384.
Turban, E. "Auctions and Bidding on the Internet: An Assessment," Electronic Markets (7:4), 1997, pp. 7-11.
Vickrey, W. "Auctions and Bidding Games," Recent Advances in Game Theory (29), 1962, pp. 15–27.
———. "Counterspeculation, Auctions, and Competitive Sealed Tenders," The Journal of Finance (16:1), 1961, pp. 8-37.
Ward, S. G. "Bidding Behavior in on-Line Auctions: An Examination of the eBay Pokemon Card Market," International Journal of Electronic Commerce (6:4), 2002, pp. 139-155.
Wilson, R. "A Bidding Model of Perfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies (44:3), 1977, pp. 511-518.
———. "Incentive Efficiency of Double Auctions," Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1985, pp. 1101-1115.
Wilson, R. B. Competitive Bidding with Disparate Information, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, 1968.
Wolfstetter, E. "Auctions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys (10:4), 1996, pp. 367-420.
Zeithaml, V. A. "Consumer Perceptions of Price, Quality, and Value: A Means-End Model and Synthesis of Evidence," Journal of Marketing (52:3), 1988, pp. 2-22.
劉孟琪. "共同價值之第一價格秘密競標模型," 高雄第一科技大學金融營運系碩士論文, 2001.
劉楚慧. "2010年台灣線上購物市場發展趨勢," 2010年台灣數位娛樂與線上購物市場發展趨勢分享會, 台北市, 2009.
周文卿. "探索下一波網路應用發展契機," 2009探索商機.掌握議題.創新研發--全球資通訊產業發展趨勢系列研討會, 新竹市, 2008.
巫和懋與夏珍. 賽局高手-全方位策略與應用, 時報出版, 台北市, 2002.
張漢伯. "網路拍賣與競標出價行為之研究," 東吳大學企業管理研究所碩士論文, 2001.
張維迎. 賽局理論與信息經濟學, 茂昌圖書有限公司, 台北市, 2003.
張順教. "廠商與投資者在訊息不對稱下之行為分析," 國立清華大學經濟研究所碩士論文, 1991.
李世華. "線上拍賣使用者競標行為之研究," 國立嘉義大學資訊管理學系碩士論文, 2007.
林居鴻, 林信惠與楊俊傑. "線上拍賣策略對拍賣結果之影響," 中山管理評論, 已接受
梁蕙年. "台灣公債標售之實證研究," 世新大學經濟學研究所碩士論文, 2003.
詹超宇. "2008年台灣網友C2C消費發展趨勢," 財團法人資訊工業策進會研究報告, 2008.
謝昭熠. "拍賣制度之研究," 國立中山大學企業管理研究所碩士論文, 1992.
謝淑貞. 賽局理論, 雙葉書廊有限公司, 台北, 1999.
陳佳志. "線上拍賣競標行為之研究:以雅虎奇摩拍賣消費性電子產品市集為例," 國立東華大學企業管理學系碩士論文, 2004.
陳歷鋒. "網際網路拍賣機制之初探研究," 國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文, 2000.
陳眉衣. "2009年7月 創市際網路拍賣調查," 創市際市場研究顧問股份有限公司, 2009.
顏月珠. 商用統計學, 三民書局, 台北市, 2003.
黃啟菱. "露天拍賣物件 超越Yahoo!奇摩," 經濟日報2007/10/05, 2007.
黃志雄. "應用資料採礦分析線上拍賣市場之模式," 朝陽科技大學工業工程與管理系碩士論文, 2003.
電子全文 Fulltext
本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。
論文使用權限 Thesis access permission:校內校外完全公開 unrestricted
開放時間 Available:
校內 Campus: 已公開 available
校外 Off-campus: 已公開 available


紙本論文 Printed copies
紙本論文的公開資訊在102學年度以後相對較為完整。如果需要查詢101學年度以前的紙本論文公開資訊,請聯繫圖資處紙本論文服務櫃台。如有不便之處敬請見諒。
開放時間 available 已公開 available

QR Code