Responsive image
博碩士論文 etd-0521116-233423 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0521116-233423
論文名稱
Title
恆常性所得衝擊與股票橫斷面報酬
Permanent income shock and the cross-section of expected stock returns
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
73
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2016-06-03
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2016-06-28
關鍵字
Keywords
特徵投資組合、股票橫斷面報酬、人力資本、資本資產評價模型、恆常所得假說
Characteristic Portfolio, Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns, Human Capital, CAPM, Permanent Income Theory
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5843 次,被下載 43
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5843 times, has been downloaded 43 times.
中文摘要
依照恆常所得假說,暫時性衝擊對人力資本影響有限,較不會影響投資人的資產配置。國外過去研究雖然證實人力資本能有效改善CAPM模型解釋力,然而在薪資資料的選用方面,並未將所得的恆常性與暫時性衝擊加以區分。本研究使用台灣1982年7月至2015年6月之資料,並利用台灣僅有之較能描繪恆常性所得衝擊的經常薪資資料進行實證,發現比起一般所得資料,使用經常性薪資估計的五種不同人力資本模型在解釋市值-淨值市價比、市值-Pre Beta、市值-成交量與市值-特有風險四種特徵投資組合的橫斷面報酬方面,明顯優於一般所得人力資本模型。除此之外,更驗證了人力資本模型在台灣股市之有效性,並以產業人力資本模型表現最佳。
Abstract
According to permanent income theory, because of a limited effect by transitory earning shock to human capital, it can’t effect relatively to investor’s portfolio choice decision. Various foreign empirical studies document the relationship between human capital or labor income and equity returns, but their way of wage data choice haven’t distinguished transitory earning shock from wage data series. The sample runs from July 1982 to June 2015 and uses Taiwanese unique regular earning data which can catch the change of permanent earning shock. We find the model explanatory power of regular earning data be used in five different human capital models which use cross-section expected stock returns being estimated from 25 sizes and book-to-market sorted, pre-beta sorted, volume sorted and idiosyncratic risk sorted are better than general wage data. In addition to, we get a result of the effectiveness of the human capital model in Taiwanese stock market, and the industry-specific human capital model is the best.
目次 Table of Contents
論文審定書 i
摘 要 ii
Abstract iii
圖次 v
表次 vi
第一章 緒論 1
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第三章 理論模型 7
第四章 研究方法 10
第一節 投資組合建構 11
第二節 實證模型 12
第五章 樣本與變數說明 17
第一節 人力資本估計 20
第二節 資料序列季節性調整 22
第六章 敘述性統計 25
第七章 實證結果 29
第一節 經常性人力資本模型二階段迴歸結果 29
第二節 經常性與一般人力資本模型比較 38
第八章 結論 45
第九章 參考文獻 47
第十章 附錄 54
參考文獻 References
李均元,2002。人力資本及勞工流動之研究:理論與台灣實證,政治大學經濟研究所博士學位論文。
陳淑玲、黃裕烈,2014。總體變數之領先、同時與落後性質之認定與指標構成項目之選取–LARS 方法之運用,臺灣經濟預測與政策,第44卷第2期,133-170頁。
黃一祥、王元章、何加政、許嘉惠,2003。台灣股市系統性風險之估計及橫斷面預期報酬之分析,財務金融學刊,第11卷第3期,1-33頁。
黃一祥,2009。人力所得、條件資本資產評價模式、及橫斷面股票報酬,財務金融學刊,第17卷第1期,41-74頁。
黃一祥、呂耿光、黃旭輝、張志向,2010。公司特有風險與橫斷面股票預期報酬-台灣股市之實證,經濟論文,第38卷第3期,503-542頁。
周賓凰、劉怡芬,2000。臺灣股市橫斷面報酬解釋因子:特徵、單因子、或多因子?證券市場發展季刊,第12卷第1期,1-32頁。
張眾卓、王祝三,2013。臺灣時間序列與橫斷面股票報酬之研究:不同模型設定、投資組合建構以及樣本選擇下之再檢測,經濟研究,第49卷第1期,31-88頁。
顧廣平,2002。臺灣上市(櫃)公司股東期望報酬橫斷面差異解釋因子之探討,亞太社會科技學報,第2卷第1期,139-164頁。
顧廣平,2005。單因子、三因子或四因子模式?證券市場發展季刊,第17卷第2期,101-146頁。
Banz, R. W., 1981. The Relationship between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks, Journal of Financial Economics, 9, 3-18.
Becker, G.S. 1995. Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education, 3rd ed., Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Black, Fischer, 1972. Capital market equilibrium with restricted borrowing, Journal of Business, 45, 444-455.
Breeden, D., 1979 An Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model with Stochastic Consumption and Investment Opportunities. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(3), 265-96.
Campbell, John Y., 1996. Understanding risk and return, Journal of Political Economy, 101,298–345.
Campbell, John Y., Martin Lettau, Burton G. Malkiel, and Yexiao Xu, 2001. Have individual stocks become more volatile? An empirical exploration of idiosyncratic risk, Journal of Finance, 56, 1–43.
Carhart, M. M., 1997. On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance, Journal of Finance, 52, 57-82.
Chen, N. F., Roll, R., and Ross, S. A., 1986. Economic Forces and the Stock Market, Journal of Business, 59, 383-403.
Daniel, K., S. Titman and K. C. J. Wei, 2001. Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Japan: Factors or Characteristics? The Journal of Finance, 56:2, 743-766.
Dybvig, P. H. and Ross, S. A., 1985. Differential Information and Performance Measurement Using a Security Market Line, Journal of Finance, 40, 383-399.
Eiling, E., 2013. Industry-specific human capital, idiosyncratic risk, and the cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Finance, 68, 43-84.
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French, 1989. Business conditions and the expected returns on bonds and stocks, Journal of Financial Economics, 25, 23-50.
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French, 1992. The cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Finance, 47, 427-466.
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French, 1993. Common risk factors in the returns on bonds and stocks, Journal of Financial Economics, 33, 3-56.
Fama, Eugene F., and James D. MacBeth, 1973. Risk, return and equilibrium: Empirical tests, Journal of Political Economy, 81, 607-636.
Fama, Eugene F., and G. William Schwert, 1977. Human capital and capital market equilibrium, Journal of Financial Economics, 4, 115-146.
Fischer Black, Michael C. Jensen, and Myron Scholes, 1972. The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Empirical Tests, Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets.
Hansen, L. P., 1982. Large Sample Properties of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimators, Econometrica, 50, 1029-1053.
Hansen, L. P. and Richard, S. F., 1987. The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable Restrictions Implied by Dynamic Asset Pricing Models, Econometrica, 55, 587-613.
Hansen, L. P. and J. Heaton and E. G. J. Luttmer, 1995. Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models, Review of Financial Studies, 8, 237-374.
Hansen, L. P. and R. Jagannathan., 1997. Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models, Journal of Finance, 52, 557-590.
Hansen, Lars Peter, and Kenneth Singleton, 1982. Generalized Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectation Models, Econometrica, 50, 1269-1286.
Haliassos, Michael and Alexander Michaelides, 2003. Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints. International Economic Review, 44, 144-177.
Heaton, John, and Deborah Lucas, 2000. Portfolio choice and asset prices: The importance of entrepreneurial risk, Journal of Finance, 55, 1163–1198.
Jagannathan, Ravi, Keiichi Kubota, and Hitoshi Takehara, 1998. Relationship between labor income risk and average return: Empirical evidence from the Japanese stock market, Journal of Business, 71, 319–347.
Jagannathan, Ravi, and Zhenyu Wang, 1996. The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns, Journal of Finance, 51, 3–53.
Kothari, S. P., Jay Shanken, and Richard G. Sloan, 1995. Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets, Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 357-390.
Lettau, Martin, and Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. Resurrecting the(C)CAPM: A cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying, Journal of Political Economy, 109, 1238–1287.
Lin, Jin-Lung and Tian-Syh Liu, 2002. Modeling Lunar Calendar Holiday Effects in Taiwan, Taiwan Economic Forecast and Policy, Institute of Economics, 1-37.
Lintner, John, 1965. The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets, Review of Economics and Statistics, 47,13-37.
Lucas, Robert E., 1978. Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy, Econometrica, 46, 1429-45.
Lustig, Hanno N., and Stijn G. van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. The returns on human capital: Good news on Wall Street is bad news on Main Street, Review of Financial Studies, 21, 2097–2137.
Lustig, Hanno N., Stijn G. van Nieuwerburgh, and Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. The wealth consumption ratio, Working paper, UCLA, Stern NYU, and MIT.
Merton, Robert C., 1973. An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, Econometrica, 41, 867-887.
Palacios-Huerta, Ignacio, 2003. The robustness of the conditional CAPM with human capital, Journal of Financial Econometrics, 1, 272–289.
Rosenberg, B., Reid, K., and Lanstein, R., 1985. Persuasive Evidence on Market Inefficiency, Journal of Portfolio Management, 11, 9-16.
Ross, S. A., 1976. The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing, Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 341-360.
Santos, Tano, and Pietro Veronesi, 2006. Labor income and predictable stock returns, Review of Financial Studies, 19, 1–44.
Shafir, E. & Thaler, R. H., 2006. Invest Now, Drink Later, Spend Never: On the Mental Accounting of Delayed Consumption. Journal of Economic Psychology, 27(5), 694-712.
Sharpe, W. F. 1964. Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, Journal of Finance, 19:3, 425-442.
Sheu, H. J., S. Wu and K. P. Ku, 1998. Cross-Sectional Relationships between Stock Returns and Market Beta, Trading Volume, Sales-to-Price in Taiwan, International Review of Financial Analysis, 7:1, 1-18.
Shiller, Robert J., 1995. Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 35, 119–152.
Thaler, R. H., 1980. Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1: 39-60.
Thaler, R. H., 1985. Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice, Marketing Science, 4, 199-214.
Thaler, R. H., 1999. Mental Accounting Matters, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 183-206.
Thaler, R. H. & Johnson, E. J., 1990. Gambling with The House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice, Management Science, 36, 643-660.
Tsai, H, Wu, Y., 2014. Optimal portfolio choice for investors with industry-specific labor income risks. Financial Research Letters, 11, 429-435.
Vicerira, Luis., 2001. Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors with Non-tradable Labor Income. Journal of Finance, 55, 1163-98.
Willis, R. 1986. Wage determinants: a survey and reinterpretation of human capital earnings functions. In D Ashenfelter and R. Layard Eds., Handbook of Labor Economics, New York: Elsevier.
電子全文 Fulltext
本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。
論文使用權限 Thesis access permission:自定論文開放時間 user define
開放時間 Available:
校內 Campus: 已公開 available
校外 Off-campus: 已公開 available


紙本論文 Printed copies
紙本論文的公開資訊在102學年度以後相對較為完整。如果需要查詢101學年度以前的紙本論文公開資訊,請聯繫圖資處紙本論文服務櫃台。如有不便之處敬請見諒。
開放時間 available 已公開 available

QR Code