影子銀行在2007年次貸危機之後成為經濟領域研究和探討的重點,其發展規模在不斷地擴大,持續地進行表外運作,並且這種趨勢愈演愈烈。體制本身的漏洞還有融資的外在需求使得影子銀行在中國的發展具有必然性,近幾年來中國迅猛發展的影子銀行,作為金融體系中的重要組成部分已經不容忽視,影子銀行對中國商業銀行體系產生了重大的影響,其中既有積極的一面也有消極的一面。因此,研究影子銀行對中國商業銀行體系穩定性的影響,將對中國商業銀行體系的運行和發展乃至整個金融體系的平衡和穩定產生重要的借鑒價值。
基於以上背景,本文選擇將中國影子銀行對宏觀經濟的影響作為研究物件,在整理相關理論和文獻的基礎上,分析了中國影子銀行的發展歷程、原因、監管現狀及其存在的問題,並利用實證分析檢驗影子銀行對宏觀經濟指標的影響,然後整理並分析國際上對影子銀行的監管改革措施及值得中國借鑒的經驗,在此基礎上提出了相關的政策和建議。

After 2007 subprime crisis shadow banking has been a focus of economic research and discussion, and its scale continues to expand with off-balance sheet operations. This trend intensifies quickly. It is system vulnerabilities and external financc demand that makes the development of shadow banking in China inevitably. In recent years, the rapidly developing shadow banking has been an important part of the financial system of our country that cannot be ignored. The shadow banking system of China's has a significant impact on commercial banking system in both positive and negative side. Therefore, the research on the shadow banking system's influence on the stability of China's commercial banks has important reference value that it will run and develop our commercial banking system as well as the balance and stability of the entire financial system.
Under the above background, it selects the mechanism of China's shadow banking as the research object. It analyzes the development course,the status, the reasons, the regulatory status and the problems of China's shadow banking. Afterwards, it also analyzes its impact on the economic growth,the mechanism of monetary policy and risk conduction, and tests the impact on macroeconomic indicators using empirical analysis. According to the regulatory reform measures and valuable experience of foreign shadow banking, it proposes the relating policies and recommendations. The dissertation is divided into seven parts, and the maincontent and chapter is organized as follows.

論文審定書 i
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
ABSTRACT iv
I. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background Information and motivation 1
1.2 Research Purpose 6
1.3 Research Structure 7
II. THE SHADOW BANKING INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PRESENT SITUATION 10
2.1 Literature Review 10
2.2 Never pay attention to in the second quarter to attach importance to the process 13
2.3 International regulatory status of shadow banking 15
III. THE CURRENT SITUATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM 18
3.1 China's shadow banking and the cause of the rapid growth 18
3.2 The positive role of China's shadow banking system in the second quarter 24
3.3 The negative impact of China's shadow banking system 27
3.4 China's shadow banking regulatory status quo 30
IV. ESTIMATES OF CHINA'S SHADOW BANKING SCALE 35
4.1 Bank financial products 36
4.2 Entrusted loans 39
4.3 The trust business 42
4.4 Non-Observable Loan 45
V. THE INFLUENCE OF CHINA'S SHADOW BANKING IN MACROECONOMIC 52
5.1 Variable selection 52
5.2 Data description 54
5.3 The data processing 57
VI. RESEARCH CONCLUSION AND THE SUGGESTION 65
6.1 The research conclusion 65
6.2 The research conclusion suggest 66
VII. MANAGEMENT ADVICES 67
REPERENCES 72

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