中文摘要

　　永續發展議題處於動態運作中，其所關注的是生態環境品質、社會正義以及未來世代的責任理念，由此觀點來看，台灣過去半世紀過度重視經濟成長，伴隨而來的是環境質損已超越海島生態環境自淨的最大容許量和承載能力。本研究以聯合永續發展委員會所採行的永續發展指標特性，進行量化方法以檢定台灣歷史資料是否符合永續發展DSR(Driving-force-State-Response)架構關係，並據此建制社會－經濟－環境永續發展系統的多目標規劃整合實證研究，來朝向永續發展的規範性價值，以規範台灣永續發展最適的策略途徑，更進一步探討台灣人口(P)、資源(R)、環境(E)、以及經濟(E)的關鍵構面協調發展，組成動態開放的PREE複雜系統以扮演全面性、整體性與系統式的決策規劃機制，以政策規劃途徑釐清政府政策在此四面向的綜合性影響。
　　本研究建制台灣永續發展指標系統，並進行DSR系統的迴歸分析，找出各永續發展構面的關鍵因子，進而建立永續發展多目標規劃之整合模式。針對所設定的目標年，在不同目標擇優排序系統的最佳平衡考量下，輔以三種情境分析，模擬國家政策規劃對各次系統配置的影響效果。
　　研究結果顯示，台灣歷史資料符合永續發展DSR指標架構關係，而多目標規劃實證研究結果發現，在適度的人口成長趨動下，倘若以人均綠色所得做為永續發展目標規劃的思考核心，則以環境品質為主，綠色所得為輔的情境分析為可行。又PREE系統的研究結果顯示，人口成長趨緩，水資源和能源折耗，以及環境質損，本研究提出建議以延續國際永續發展概念，尋求社會、環境與自然資源的平衡，作為國家追求永續發展施政之參考。

Abstract

The concept of sustainable development in the dynamic operation concerns for the ecosystem’s health, social justice and ideals of responsibility to future generations. From this point of view, the striking levels of economic growth achieved over the past few decades has been accompanied by environmental degradation, which exceeds the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystems in this island. Based on the characteristics of indicators on the Commission on Sustainable Development of United Nations, this research constructs quantitative approaches to evaluate whether the historical data in Taiwan meets the relationship in DSR (Driving-force-State-Response) indicator framework of sustainable development or not. This research also formulates the social-economic-environmental multi-objective programming system to the normative value of sustainable development for planning an optimal strategy path of sustainable development in Taiwan. Moreover, this research also forms a complex system called PREE system, which population (P), resources (R), environment (E) and economy (E) could develop with sustenance, order and coordination, to make policy planning for an overall, comprehensive and systematic mechanism of sustainable development.
This research aims at building the indicator system of sustainable development in Taiwan, performing regression analysis for DSR system, finding key indicators of each individual dimension of sustainable development, developing the multi-objective integrated model solved by goal programming for sustainable development, and realizing the scenario analyses with assigned priority change of objective function.
The results indicate the historical data in Taiwan meets the relationship in DSR indicator framework of sustainable development. The findings illustrate that the scenario for green income accompanied by the highest priority of environmental quality is optimal under the condition of moderate-driven rate of population growth, if green income per capita is considered to be the core set. On the other hand, the findings also indicate the declining rate of population growth, the depletion of water resource and energy, and the degradation of environment. Some suggestions related to public policies for spreading the international concept of sustainable development and for the balance of socio-environment and natural resource. This research explores that such a process generates as a means for nation to understand what specific actions to take in order to simulate the allocating results of national policy affecting the social, economic and environmental system and to measure progress towards sustainable development.

目　錄


論文提要------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- II

中文摘要------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ⅲ

Abstract------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅳ

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅵ

第一章、緒論------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1
第一節　研究背景與動機-------------------------------------------------------------- 1
第二節　研究目的----------------------------------------------------------------------- 4
第三節　研究流程----------------------------------------------------------------------- 4
第二章、文獻回顧----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
第一節　永續發展概念與變遷-------------------------------------------------------- 6
第二節 二十一世紀綱領-------------------------------------------------------------- 9
第三節 歐盟永續發展策略------------------------------------------------------------------ 12
第四節 複雜系統------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 13
第五節　多目標規劃------------------------------------------------------------------- 14
第三章、台灣永續發展DSR指標架構迴歸分析--------------------------------------- 16
第一節　台灣永續發展指標系統---------------------------------------------------- 16
第二節　DSR指標系統關聯分析--------------------------------------------------- 17
第三節　永續發展構面迴歸分析---------------------------------------------------- 19
第四章、研究設計---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23
第一節　研究架構---------------------------------------------------------------------- 23
(一) 社會－經濟－環境系統的多目標規劃整合模型--------------- 23
(二) 人口－資源－環境－經濟(PREE)系統多目標規劃整合模型--- 25
第二節　研究方法---------------------------------------------------------------------- 26
(一) 多目標規劃法－the preemptive method-------------------------- 27
(二) 目標的優先等級排序－priority ordering------------------------- 28
第五章、整合社會－經濟－環境系統的多目標規劃實證研究---------------------- 31
第一節　台灣永續發展之跨構面指標系統---------------------------------------- 31
(一) 目標--------------------------------------------------------------------- 31
(二) 決策變數--------------------------------------------------------------- 34
(三) 跨構面目標限制式--------------------------------------------------- 38
第二節　整合社會－經濟－環境系統的多目標規劃---------------------------- 40
第三節　情境A－GWAS(經濟－環境水資源－環境空氣品質－社會)------ 43
第四節　情境B－WSGA (環境水資源－社會－經濟－環境空氣品質)----- 44
第五節　情境C－SAWG(社會－環境空氣品質－環境水資源－經濟)------ 45
第六節　結果分析---------------------------------------------------------------------- 46
第六章、人口－資源－環境－經濟協調發展的多目標規劃實證研究------------- 47
第一節　PREE系統的非線性多目標模型----------------------------------------- 47
(一) 目標--------------------------------------------------------------------- 47
(二) 決策變數--------------------------------------------------------------- 48
(三) 限制式------------------------------------------------------------------ 49
第二節　目標規劃模型---------------------------------------------------------------- 52
第三節　分析及結論------------------------------------------------------------------- 54
(一) Case 1：經濟－資源－環境－產業結構－人口---------------- 54
(二) Case 2：環境－經濟－資源－產業結構－人口---------------- 56
　　(三) Case 3：資源－環境－經濟－產業結構－人口---------------- 58
第四節　政策建議---------------------------------------------------------------------- 60
(一) 人口成長趨於緩慢--------------------------------------------------- 60
(二) 積極合理引導勞動力向第一、第二產業轉移------------------- 60
(三) 創造條件擴大就業機會--------------------------------------------- 60
(四) 資源豐度質損--------------------------------------------------------- 61
(五) 提昇國民省水意識，節約用水，建立節水型社會-------------- 61
(六) 推動自發性節約能源，鼓勵開發及使用再生能源------------- 62
(七) 改善環境指標--------------------------------------------------------- 63
(八) 促進經濟成長--------------------------------------------------------- 64

第七章、結論---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 65
　　第一節　結論---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 65
　　第二節　建議---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 69
中文參考文獻---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 70
英文參考文獻 (Reference)----------------------------------------------------------------- 71
網路參考資料---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 81

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