創新的新產品一直是企業增加獲利的最佳來源，在過去有許多的研究探討創新的好處與其成功的因素，然而創新的程度不同所帶來的效果與成本也將有所不同，過往的研究顯示出未必是越高度創新的產品就越能帶來最大的利益，因此在產品創新過程中，新產品的創新程度決策將具有相當的研究價值。
本研究依產品創新程度將新產品區分為微幅創新產品(minor innovation、incremental innovation)與巨幅創新產品(major innovation、radical innovation)兩類，透過實質選擇權分析(Real Options Analysis)建立產品創新過程中各類新產品的價值評估模型，探討影響企業創新決策的因素，並利用數值方法進行各因素之敏感性分析，瞭解企業在產品創新決策上將有何種偏好與傾向。最後，本研究以台灣地區的新產品改款案例與現象進行模型之應用研究與分析。

New product innovation strategy is always be the best way for corporations to enhance earning. A lot of essays have discussed the benefits of innovation strategy and the factors that make innovation strategy successful. However, different innovation degree creates different effects and costs. By former researchs, the higher degree of innovation dosen’t guarantee the huger of profit. Therefore, knowing the decision procerss of new product innovation is realy important and worthful.
In this article, we divide new products into two groups with different innovation degree: the minor innovation product (incremental innovation product) and the major innovation product (radical innovation product). By using real options analysis method, we build a evaluation model to estimate the new product value during the procerss of new product innovation. We also go into what factors will influence the corporations’ decision. Furthermore, we do the sensitivity analysis with numerical method and to realize corporations’ preference and tendency in product innovation decision. At last, we use the real option evaluation model to analyze some product innovation cases in Taiwan.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的與預期成果 3
第三節 研究內容與研究架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 新產品與公司價值 6
小　結 9
第二節 創新產品與升級、改款產品 10
小　結 16
第三節 實質選擇權(Real Option)與新產品開發 16
小　結 26
第三章 模型建立 27
第一節 產品價值之估算 27
第二節 實質選擇權價值之計算模型 27
第三節 實質選擇權之決策模型推導與計算 29
第四節 實質選擇權決策模型之決策門檻 35
第五節 實質選擇權決策門檻之敏感度分析 38
第六節 本章總結 47
第四章 模型應用 50
第一節 行動電話產品與產品改款週期 50
第二節 共同基金產品與產品線組合改款 53
第三節 人壽壽險保單與主流產品改款 57
第四節 兩階段產品投資 62
第五章 研究結論與建議 66
第一節 敏感性分析之結論 67
第二節 本研究模型之應用 69
第三節 研究限制與建議 70
參考文獻 72
一、中文部份 72
二、英文部份 72

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