目前電信業雖已進入「大者恆大」的整併風潮，但從用戶帳單平均每月貢獻度不升反降的現況分析，不難得知台灣電信市場已呈飽和狀態。再者，隨著電信總局預於2005年1月實施行動電話門號可攜性的機制，如何挽留既有用戶及深耕新用戶，手機價格戰將是未來避免不了的正面衝突。由於手機因成本高、產品生命週期短暫、使用率差異性大、採購前置時間不穩定與消費者前端之需求不確定等因素，使得手機的存貨管理問題一直困擾著電信業者。
本研究探討電信業者在存貨管理上採用有別於傳統庫存管理模式的供應商代管庫存模式，並針對高階手機提出簡單的手機存貨模型－以過去月平均需求量及市場價格下降曲線為基礎來建構此模型。利用產品類別的屬性尋求產品的相關性，並透過時間序列分析的運算模式，求最適訂購量及再訂購點以強化在協同商務架構下的補貨機制，藉以提高顧客服務滿意度及強化廠商夥伴關係的管理。本研究係以電信業者的觀點來建構此手機存貨模型。

The telecommunications industry has been in the process of merging. However, the decline of Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) shows the saturation of mobile phone market. At the same time, the Directorate General of Telecommunications (DGT) has announced the implementation of number portability will be in January 2005. Therefore, the resort to sell handsets in high discounts is unavoidable to retain the existing customers and get the new subscribers. Because the high cost, short product lifecycle, diversity of usage, uncertainty of leading time in procurement and indefinite of consumers’ demands, the management of handset inventory has been perplexed the telecommunication industry.
This research tries to create an inventory model to provide the mobile phone companies a direction for deciding what the right order quantity is and when the re-order point is. It also can improve the satisfaction of customers and enforce the partnership with vendors. The vendor managed inventory (VMI) which is different from traditional inventory management is taken into consideration, and the target is the high-end function handset. The model will employ the data of average demand in the past few months and the decline curve of market price as the base. The relation of handsets has been created by using the characteristics of classified product. The methodology of time series analysis is used for this research.
The construct of this handset inventory model is from the viewpoint of telecommunication industry.

1 緒論
1.1 研究背景與動機…………………………………………………………………1
1.2 研究目的…………………………………………………………………………7
1.3 研究架構與限制…………………………………………………………………8
2 文獻探討
2.1 供應鏈管理………………………………………………………………………11
2.2 存貨管理…………………………………………………………………………18
2.2.1 存貨管理模式……………………………………………………………..19
2.2.2 傳統庫存管理模式與長鞭效應…………………………………………..21
2.2.3 供應商代管庫存…………………………………………………………..23
2.3 協同商務�協同計畫預測補貨…………………………………………………27
2.3.1 協同商務的定義....………………………………………………………..27
2.3.2 協同式計畫預測補貨……………………………………………………..28
2.4 產品生命週期……………………………………………………………………32
3 評比模式發展
3.1 研究步驟…………………………………………………………………………36
3.1.1 時間序列…………………………………………………………………..38
3.1.2 預測對象篩選……………………………………………………………..44
3.2 預測程序…………………………………………………………………………45
3.3 評量指標…………………………………………………………………………46
3.3.1 模型預測指標……………………………………………………………..46
3.3.2 VMI績效評量指標………………………………………………………..48
3.4 效益評估分析……………………………………………………………………49
4 資料分析
4.1 研究個案陳述……………………………………………………………………51
4.2 預測分析…………………………………………………………………………59
4.3 效益評比…………………………………………………………………………82
5 研究結及未來發展方向
5.1 研究結論…………………………………………………………………………85
5.2 未來發展方向……………………………………………………………………85
參考文獻………………………………………………………………………………...87

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