由於近年來薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器的生產技術進步，漸漸替代了過去的映像管螢幕，如個人電腦、筆記型電腦的液晶螢幕及目前受消費者矚目的液晶電視。目前年產值高達約八千多億台幣的面板產業已成為國家發展的重要產業。而面板產業的競爭，除生產技術外，不論在國際或國內，都與面板產業上、下游和消費市場之動態需求息息相關，如上、下游間的物料供應、末端消費市場的需求、價格變動…等變化，即所謂的長鞭效應，都會影響整個產業供應鏈的運作，尤以台灣液晶顯示器產業為多層垂直分工型態，其影響更劇。本研究希望透過系統動態模型來解析構成長鞭效應的主要因素及其影響程度，並希望藉此分析結果，能提供給台灣液晶顯示器業者，以做為減低長鞭效應之決策機制。

Due to the progress of display manufacturing technology, TFT-LCD (Thin Film
Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display) has been widely put in use gradually such as
monitor、laptop and LCD TV. We also can find TFT-LCD that has already entered the market of the consuming products from IT (Information Technology). And the competition of the panel industry, besides manufacturing technologies, the dynamic demands of upstream, downstream and consumers are related that will effect the performance of panel markers or whole supply chain. Which is called bullwhip effect. Especially, the configuration is vertical partition in Taiwan and the buffwhip effect would be more significant than other countries. This paper discusses the key factors of bullwhip effect and them constructs the system dynamic models to explore the difference. Finally, we will analyze the TFT-LCD members of Taiwan to figure out the decision rules to decrease bullwhip effect.

1.緒論
1.1 研究背景與動機
1.2 研究目的
1.3 研究範圍與限制
1.4 研究方法
1.5 研究流程
1.6 論文結構
2.文獻探討
2.1 產業供應鏈
2.2 長鞭效應
2.3 啤酒遊戲模型
3.產業背景探索
3.1產業發展與競爭
3.2業界運作實務
3.3台灣液晶顯示器長鞭效應因素歸納
4.系統動力學
4.1 系統動力學建模流程
4.2 問題描述、模型發展概念與邊
4.3 因果回饋圖
4.4 建立模型
4.5 效度測試
4.6 衡量指標與基本數據
4.7 模擬情境
4.8 模擬結果
5.結論與後續研究方向
5.1 結論
5.2 後續研究方向
參考文獻
附錄

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