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博碩士論文 etd-0706104-111444 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0706104-111444
論文名稱
Title
探究啤酒遊戲加入價格變數後對遊戲參與者行為之影響
To investigate players' actions when price variable is added in Beer Game
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
60
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2004-06-04
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2004-07-06
關鍵字
Keywords
啤酒遊戲、長鞭效應
beer game, bullwhip effect
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5891 次,被下載 4980
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5891 times, has been downloaded 4980 times.
中文摘要
麻省理工史隆管理學院(Slaon School of Management)當初發展啤酒遊戲時,並沒有加入價格變數。其所持原因有二:(1)只要有時間滯延就會產生動態性複雜(2)多了價格,或許反而使我們無法觀察變化型態與底層結構。
本研究企圖將價格變數加入啤酒遊戲中,一方面驗證麻省理工的說法,另一方面探討價格對於參與者在遊戲中的決策會有什麼樣的影響,以及參與者的學習效果如何。
經過幾次遊戲實驗之後,發現雖然長鞭效應仍然存在,然而並沒有比原始的啤酒遊戲明顯;此外,參與者均會受到價格的影響,而進行囤積行為。由遊戲後的討論中,可以發覺參與者均缺乏系統思考能力、產生回饋的錯誤感知(Misperceptions of Feedback)、容易歸罪於外等傳統啤酒遊戲中都可觀察到的現象,亦即,兩者所帶來的學習效果並無不同。然而,在加入價格的啤酒遊戲中可歸納出很多參與者共同的行為模式、心路歷程,再對照著很多因為價格波動而產生的搶購、囤積行為,例如2003年SARS引起的口罩風波;2004年紙漿價格上漲,而帶動衛生紙跟著調漲,業者擔心消費者搶購、囤積等事件,可讓參與者藉由遊戲模擬真實世界狀況,進一步學習與反思,再將此經驗帶入真實情境,使得學習能夠達到效果。
Abstract
Beer Game developed by Slaon School of Management didn’t add price variable into the game. It’s reasons were : (1) As long as there is time delay, it will induce dynamic complexity. (2) If there is price variable, maybe we can’t observe patterns and structure.
In the research, we try to add price variable into Beer Game to verify the statement made by Slaon School of Management. Besides, we can explore whether it will influence players’ decisions or not. The learning effects are also we concern about.
After a few experiment, althought bullwhip effect is still existing, it’s not much apparent then before. Besides, players are affected by price variables. From discussions after the game, we can find players lack systems thinking, they have misperceptions of feedback and get used to put blame on others. Those learning effects are the same as traditional beer game induced. However, beer game with price variable can conclude many behaviors made by players. To contrast with the panic buying and stock conditions, such as respirators panic buying in 2003, toilet paper price rise caused by pulp cost increased in 2004, players can simulate the real world throuth playing the game. They can reflect and learn, then bring this experience into real life.
目次 Table of Contents
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 1
第三節 研究範圍 2
第四節 研究概念性架構 2
第五節 研究流程 3
第六節 研究限制 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 啤酒遊戲之介紹、發展與學習理論 6
第二節 管理飛行模擬器相關研究文獻回顧 12
第三節 學習理論回顧 17
第三章 研究方法與流程 22
第一節 研究方法 22
第二節 研究對象與地點 23
第三節 研究者的角色 24
第四節 研究的設計與過程 24
第四章 加入價格變數之啤酒遊戲設計、實驗與結果 25
第一節 中山大學系統思考與組織學習研究室定版之傳統啤酒遊戲 25
第二節 加入價格變數的啤酒遊戲 27
第五章 實驗發現 44
參考文獻 48
一、中文部分 48
二、英文部份 49
三、網站部分 52
附錄一 5/11第四次紙板遊戲各角色心路歷程逐字稿 53
附錄二 5/14醫策會啤酒遊戲逐字稿 55
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三、網站部分
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Equipment_Corporation 930304
http://www.innovationassociates.com/index.htm 930304
http://www.sol-en.org/repository/download/bibl.html?item_id=456327 930304
http://www.sol-en.org/repository/download/instr.html?item_id=456354 930304
http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/HubNetBeerGame 930304
http://beergame.mit.edu/ 930306
http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www/ 930306
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