本文利用1999年4月至12月證券市場全體投資人的日內交易資料，計算散戶和機構投資人的實際報酬率，研究過度自信及從眾行為對交易績效的影響。實證結果發現，散戶的平均報酬率只落後機構投資人0.73%，過度自信及從眾行為才是決定績效好壞的主要因素，散戶並不總是輸。不論是散戶或法人，過度自信和從眾行為都會大幅減低投資人的報酬率，且沒有證據顯示機構投資人過度自信或從眾的結果和散戶不同。此結論意謂投資人心理/行為對交易績效的影響甚至大過於資訊/能力的因素。

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第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 2
第三節 研究貢獻與限制 2
第四節 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第一節 過度自信 5
第二節 過度自信與交易績效 6
第三節 從眾行為 9
第四節 從眾行為與交易績效 11
第三章 資料與研究方法 12
第一節 樣本描述 12
第二節 研究方法 12
第三節 研究假說 17
第四章 實證結果與分析 19
第一節 敘述統計 19
第二節 各類投資人交易績效的分配 21
第三節 過度自信和從眾行為對交易績效的影響 23
第五章 結論與建議 39
參考文獻 41

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