台灣是海島型國家，出口產值占國內生產毛額GDP的七成，台灣出口許多產品到大陸組裝，接著出口到世界各地銷售，其中大多是歐美先進國家，尤其美國是世界的內需大國，其需求程度直接或間接影響著台灣經濟。因此，當這些國家對產品的需求減弱，必然將影響台灣的出口產值，可說全球的總體環境與台灣的經濟成長息息相關，牽一髮動全身。然而，在大環境的變動的同時，企業並非任由公司倒閉或重整，在體質與公司治理條件良好的情況下，許多企業仍然可以安度大環境的風暴。本文即是探討當總體環境因素變動下公司治理的優劣是否能影響企業財務危機發生。
本文採用Logit與Probit模型。另外，傳統許多研究內容為企業財務變數與財務危機之間的關係，本文亦想驗證企業財務變數變動下公司治理變數是否影響企業財務危機的發生。相關結果如下：
1. 美國總體變數、公司財務變數與公司治理變數分別對財務危機發生與否產生顯著影響，即總體環境越好、財務狀況越佳且公司治理較優者愈不易發生財務危機。
2. 關於「公司治理優劣在財務變數變動下對企業財務危機發生的影響研究」有較顯著的結果，此結果表示相同財務狀況下，股權結構與董事會特性相關代表變數較佳者，確實能降低危機發生。而關於「公司治理優劣在總體變數變動下對企業財務危機發生的影響研究」，結果較為不顯著。
3. 公司治理較佳者，除財務流動性外，實証顯示財務狀況亦較佳。

.Taiwan is the island country, the exportation value occupies GDP 70%. Taiwan exports many products to the mainland , then these products exports to each place in the world, in which mostly is the European,American and other advanced countries. US is especially important nation to the product demand .Its demand degree is affecting the Taiwan economy deeply. Therefore, when these countries's demand weaken, it will affect Taiwan's exportation situation.And this means global environment and Taiwan's economical growth will be closely linked.However, while the overall environment changes, the enterprises does not just let their companies to go out of business or to rally. Under better mangerment, many enterprises still might passed the crisis safely.This paper discusses if the overall environmental factor changes , under certain governing condition, the occurance of financial crisis will be affected or not.
This paper uses Logit and the Probit model.Moreover, we know many traditional papers researched the relationship between financial variables and the financial crisis , and this paper also want to discuss if the financial factor changes , under certain governing condition, the occurance of financial crisis will be affected or not.The related result is as follows:
1. American overall variables, the financial variables and the company govern variables separately affect the occurance of finance crisis .
2.Regarding the research about “If the overall environmental factor changes , under certain governing condition, the occurance of financial crisis will be affected ,”the result shows interactive effects between overall variables and company govern variables do not very remarkable.And Regarding the research about “If the financial factor changes , under certain governing condition, the occurance of financial crisis will be affected ,”the result shows interactive effects between financial variables and company govern variables are more remarkable.
3.Under better corporate governance , besides the financial fluidity, the financial condition is also better.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 1
第二節 研究問題與目的 4
第三節 研究流程與架構 4

第二章 文獻回顧與探討 6
第一節 財務危機預警文獻 6
第二節 公司治理文獻 7
第三節 總體經濟環境文獻 11

第三章 研究設計 14
第一節 財務危機定義 14
第二節 研究對象與研究期間 16
第三節 變數選取與資料整理 17
第四節 模型建構與驗證方式 27

第四章 實證結果分析 31
第一節 共線性檢定 31
第二節「總體變數、財務變數、公司治理變數分別是否造成財務危機發生」實證結果 33
第三節「公司治理優劣在總體環境(或財務變數)變動下對企業財務危機發生的影響」實証結果 42
第四節「公司財務變數受公司治理優劣影響」實證結果 49

第五章 結論與建議 52
第一節 研究結論 52
第二節 後續研究與建議 53

參考文獻 55

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