在國內景氣低迷不振，業務重心逐漸移向國際市場的同時，海外市場的拓展卻未讓工程公司在獲利上隨著營業額同步增加。因為在經營環境劇烈變動下，工程公司現行憑藉經驗、直覺假設及簡單計算公式的估價作業，不易讓經理人認知未來不確定性的風險，也難以事前擬訂彈性管理方法來因應，因而造成嚴重的成本侵蝕。
為了提升估價作業中對抗未來不確定性的洞察力及管理彈性，本文在傳統估價過程中加入實質選擇權的方法與觀念，並建構出具有實質選擇權價值的風險成本模型。經由實證數據說明，選擇權流程除有助於觀察到不確定風險來源外，更指引了進行彈性管理的方向，使得對抗風險不再是毫無頭緒或只憑主觀的工作經驗來認知。
此外，本文也建議了幾種將選擇權價值應用於風險成本的做法與時機，不過，在運用選擇權價值前，經理人對於選擇權價值必須要清楚的體認到：選擇權價值不是一個可以做為會計計算的真正價格；實質選擇權流程也不能保證可以轉虧為盈，其最大的意義在於提供管理者或經理人一個可以期望的目標；若要獲得額外的選擇權價值，經理人必須要落實彈性管理才能達成。
企業在導入與使用選擇權評估流程時，必須注意到各專案選擇權之間的交互作用與其對於企業所能貢獻綜效的有效整合，如此才讓企業所掌握的選擇權總值最大化，並成為有力的競爭利器。只是要形成這樣的效果除了企業組織的共識與高階管理階層的承諾外，該流程也必須隨著外界環境的變化不斷的應用與修正，才能讓每一次的演化都凝聚成企業的策略優勢。

The sources of construction business for local firms have been shifted gradually to oversea market over years due to domestic economic recession. Nevertheless, the revenue seems standstill against to the growing contract amounts since the cost has been encroached on the present cost estimation procedure which based on personal instincts, experiences and simple formula that out of ability to identify the future uncertainties and frame the flexible management in advance under drastic business environment.
To enhance the managerial insight and flexibility of evaluation process for the future uncertainties, we proposed and constructed a real optional model of risk cost upon traditional cost evaluation process. As a result of experiment, the sources of uncertainties and the flexibilities for management could be observed and directed clearly to against the risk without subjective or instinctive recognization anymore.
Seveal occasions of application of real option value have been suggested in this study several important key points should be emphasized before using it: neither profit/loss nor price for accounting can be promised with the real option value; rather an expectable goal for managers to achieve. Appropriate flexible activities should be studied and approached before making decisions to acquire real option value.
Maximized overall real option value could be a powerful competition tool for any company that tries to adopt real option approach to profit estimation if the interaction and synergy of real option among individual projects could be integrated effectively. Under the support of authority and interorganization commitment, the real option process should be learned and modified evolutionary according to dynamic business environment then becomes a strategic advantage.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
致謝詞 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 5
第三節 論文架構 10
第二章 工程專案估價作業概述與實例說明 13
第一節 工程專案估價作業概述 13
第二節 X公司的專案估價作業流程 16
第三節 X公司對於不確定性的管控與專案風險成本 22
第三章 實質選擇權文獻探討 26
第一節 實質選擇權的起源與應用 26
第二節 實質選擇權分析流程 30
第三節 實質選擇權價值的計算 34
第四章 以實質選選擇權建構風險成本模型 42
第一節 由傳統分析到實質選擇權分析 42
第二節 蒙地卡羅模擬與敏感度分析 46
第三節 確定選擇權集合及相關波動度 49
第四節 展開二元樹及計算選擇權價值 53
第五節 選擇權價值與風險成本的應用 56
第五章 實證過程及驗證討論 59
第一節 個案背景介紹與數據整理 59
第二節 蒙地卡羅模擬與敏感度分析 64
第三節 確定選擇權集合及相關波動度 73
第四節 展開二元樹及計算選擇權價值 81
第五節 實證結果及選擇權價值應用之探討 94
第六章 結論 101
第一節 研究貢獻 101
第二節 研究限制與未來研究方向 102
第三節 實質選擇權在工程專案上的效用 104
參考文獻 107
一、中文部份 107
二、英文部份 108
三、網站部份 112

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三、網站部份
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