全球人口結構正從過去的高出生率、高死亡率轉為低出生率、低死亡率，此現象使得人類預期壽命延長和人口結構趨於老化。少子化與人口老化的現象也使得台灣面臨人口結構的轉變，因此，人口結構轉變究竟如何影響台灣的經濟成長，即是本文欲探究之主題。

本文以Bloom and Williamson(1998)研究理論架構為基礎，採用民國44年到民國100年的時間序列年資料來探討人口結構因素對經濟成長的影響。所採用變數包含：人均國內生產毛額、人口自然增加率、就業勞動力、教育經費占國內生產毛額比率、資本形成毛額對國內生產毛額比率以及總扶養比。

本文先以單根檢定確定所有變數均為I(1)的非定態時間序列，接著利用Johansen最大概似估計法取得一組共整合向量，此共整合結果顯示變數長期關係為：人口自然增加率與人均國內生產毛額具有正向關係；就業勞動力、資本形成毛額對國內生產毛額比率與人均國內生產毛額具有正向關係；教育經費占國內生產毛額比率與人均國內生產毛額具有負向關係；而扶養比與人均國內生產毛額具有負向關係。

在共整合檢定之後，本文以向量誤差修正模型、衝擊反應函數分析與預測誤差變異數分析來探討變數的因果關係與中短期的調整過程。結果顯示人均國內生產毛額變數、人口自然增加率變數、教育經費占國內生產毛額比率變數與資本形成毛額對國內生產毛額比率變數為經濟成長之內生變數；而就業勞動力變數與扶養比變數則屬於外生變數。前期就業勞動力與教育經費占GDP比率的提升將有助於當期人均GDP成長，表示短期內就業勞動力與教育經費占GDP比率均為促進經濟發展的因素。前期就業勞動力的提升將無助於當期教育經費占國內GDP比率；而前期資本形成毛額對GDP比率的提升將有助於當期教育經費占國內GDP比率。前期人均GDP、就業勞動力與教育經費占GDP比例的提升將有助於當期資本形成毛額對GDP比率。

Global population structure is morphing from a one with high fertility and high mortality rates into a one with low birth and low mortality rates. It means longer life expectancy and economics with large aging population. Taiwan makes no exception in thus perspective. The main aim of this paper, therefore, is to investigate how demographic changes affect the economic growth of Taiwan.

In this paper, we follow the theoretical framework is provided by Bloom and Williamson (1998). The time series of Taiwan data (1955~2011) is used to analyze demographic the impacts of different demograhic factors impact on the economic growth of Taiwan. The variables under investigation includes per capita gross domestic product (GDP), the natural population growth rate, the employed labor force, the ratio of the total educational expenditures to GDP, the ratio of the gross capital formation to GDP and the total dependency ratio.

At first, the unit root test is employed to assume that all variables are I (1) non-steady state time series, and then the Johansen maximum likelihood estimation method is used to obtain a set of co-integration vectors. These co-integration results show the long-term relationship of investigated variables as follows: natural population growth rate and per capita GDP have a positive relationship; employed labor force, the ratio of the gross capital formation to GDP and per capita GDP have a positive relationship; the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP and per capita GDP have a negative relationship and finally, the dependency ratio and per capita gross domestic product have a negative relationship.

After the co-integration test, the vector error correction model, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are employed to analyze the causality relationship between variables and the short-term adjustment process. The results show that the per capita GDP, the natural population growth rate, the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP and the proportion of gross capital formation to GDP are the endogenous variables of the economic growth. On the other hand, the employed labor force of the economic growth and total dependency ratio are the exogenous variables of the economic growth. Furthermore, the increase of the employed labor force and total educational expenditures to GDP strengthens the per capita GDP growth in the current period, which means that short-term employed labor force and the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP are the factors that promote economic development. The increase of the employed labor force in the previous period does little to enhance the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP in the current while the increase of the proportion gross capital formation to GDP enhance the ratio of total educational expenditures to GDP in the current period. Finally, the increase of the per capita GDP and employed labor force enhances the proportion gross capital formation to GDP in the current period.

目錄
論文審定書................................................i
誌謝......................................................ii
摘要.....................................................iii
Abstract………………………………………………………………….iv
目錄……………………………………………………………………...vi
圖目錄…………………………………………………………………...ix
表目錄…………………………………………………………………....x
第一章 緒論..............................................................................................1
第一節 研究動機..............................................................................1
第二節 研究目的..............................................................................5
第三節 研究架構與流程…………………………………………..6
第二章 文獻探討.....................................................................................8
第一節 人口與經濟成長相關理論回顧..........................................8
第二節 人口結構轉變對經濟成長的影響之相關文獻................10
第三節 人口結構轉變對勞動參與率影響之相關文獻…………15
第四節 人力資本對經濟成長的影響之相關文獻……………....17
第三章 理論模型....................................................................................20
第四章 研究方法....................................................................................28
第一節 單根檢定............................................................................28
第二節 向量自我迴歸模型..........................................................31
第三節 共整合檢定......................................................................33
第四節 向量誤差修正模型..........................................................37
第五節 衝擊反應函數與預測誤差變異數分解..........................38
第五章 實證結果與分析....................................41
第一節 實證方法與模型設定...........................41
第二節 資料來源與變數說明...........................42
第三節 資料處理與分析...............................45
第四節 單根檢定結果..................................................................47
第五節 共整合檢定……………………………………………..51
第六節 向量誤差修正模型..........................................................55
第七節 衝擊反應函數…………………………………………...61
第八節 預測誤差變異數分解…………………………………..67
第九節 小結……………………………………………………..72
第六章 結論與建議........................................74
第一節 研究結論.....................................74
第二節 未來研究建議.................................75
【附錄1】………………………………………………………………76
【附錄2】………………………………………………………………77
【附錄3】………………………………………………………………80
參考文獻.................................................83
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二、英文部分……………………………………………………..85
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