Responsive image
博碩士論文 etd-0122113-005127 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0122113-005127
論文名稱
Title
觀光與經濟成長:追蹤資料分析
Tourism and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
141
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2013-01-15
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2013-01-22
關鍵字
Keywords
觀光專業化、追蹤資料Granger因果、多重結構性斷裂、經濟成長、觀光
panel Granger Causality, multiple structural breaks, tourism, economic growth, tourism specialization
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5765 次,被下載 1819
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5765 times, has been downloaded 1819 times.
中文摘要
  全世界觀光旅遊業於經濟部門內一直是快速持續性且多變性的發展,觀光需求與經濟成長的研究目前於國際學術研究已經是熱門的焦點。但是,觀光旅遊卻經常碰到諸如重大天災頻傳、恐怖主義橫行、金融管理不彰與環境衛生忽視等變數的衝擊干擾影響觀光需求。因此,本論文以三篇文章運用了追蹤資料多重結構性斷裂、追蹤資料Granger因果關係與追蹤平滑門檻迴歸等理論探討觀光需求與經濟成長之關係。

  第二章的實證研究係利用結構性斷裂單根檢定探索台灣主要觀光市場的需求變化,遇到重大事件衝擊所產生之效果是短暫抑或長遠的影響,為檢視台灣主要觀光市場來源國的收斂性,則考慮傅立葉定態模式下的多重結構性斷裂單根檢定與橫斷相依性。我們發現中國大陸、印尼、韓國、泰國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、英國與美國來台的觀光需求遇到重大事件衝擊只是短暫影響,但是從收斂性的結果來看只有泰國、英國與美國有定態收斂結果,這顯示政府觀光行銷政策仍有加強改善的空間。

  第三章的實證研究係利用追蹤資料Granger 因果關係探索在APEC 的觀光旅遊工作組所執行的可持續觀光旅遊促進經濟發展的策略。研究顯示支持觀光引導經濟成長假說的國家(地區) 有澳洲、韓國、俄羅斯、臺灣、美國與香港; 支持經濟成長引導開放貿易假說的國家則有菲律賓、美國、馬來西亞與紐西蘭; 支持觀光引導開放貿易假說的國家有印尼、墨西哥、馬來西亞與紐西蘭。整體看來在觀光專業化程度較高的國家其可持續觀光旅遊政策對於促進經濟發展產生較佳的綜效。我們建議臺灣可以增強服務貿易開放,進行區域多邊貿易自由化,拓展觀光旅遊出口商機。

  第四章的實證研究係利用追蹤平滑移轉迴歸模型探討若觀光專業化的程度為門檻變數,觀光發展對於經濟成長的影響。低度開發國家觀光專業化的發展對經濟成長的影響可以區分為兩個不同的體制(regime) ,觀光專業化程度高的國家,其經濟成長有條件收斂,旅遊發展縮小了區域差異,政府支出對經濟成長率的影響並不顯著,開放貿易對於經濟成長有顯著的正向效果。觀光專業化程度低的國家經濟成長無條件收斂,政府支出與開放貿易對於經濟成長無顯著的影響。小島型觀光國家觀光專業化的發展對經濟成長的影響可以區分為兩個不同的體制,在觀光專業化程度相對低的狀態國家經濟成長有條件收斂,觀光專業化程度相對高的狀態國家,經濟成長無條件收斂、政府支出與開放貿易對於經濟成長兩者皆無顯著的影響。經合組織國家觀光專業化的發展對經濟成長的影響可以區分為三個不同的體制,期初所得對於經濟成長存在條件收斂,政府支出對於經濟成長呈現負向的影響,開放貿易對於經濟成長為正向影響。非經合組織國家顯示兩個區間,即觀光專業化比率較低與較高兩種區域,此兩區域其觀光專業化的提高與開放貿易的增加皆有助於經濟成長率的增率提高,政府支出對於經濟成長呈現負向的影響。因此,屬於非觀光天然資源豐富的小島型國家,若提高觀光專業化程度,可以使得經濟成長具有條件收斂,縮小區域經濟的差異。
Abstract
  The global tourism industry has exhibited a rapid, sustained, and diverse development within the sectors of economy. Studies on tourism demands and economic growth are currently popular internationally. However, variable factors such as natural disasters, terrorism, poor financial management, and environmental health-negligence interfere with tourism demands. This paper is divided into three chapters, and adopts numerous theories, such as multiple structural breaks of panel data, panel Granger causality tests, and a panel smooth threshold regression approach, to examine the relationship between tourism demands and economic growth.
 
  In Chapter 2, we conduct empirical research based on multiple structural breaks to evaluate and explore the demand changes of the primary tourism market in Taiwan, and determine whether the effects caused by major events are transitory or permanent. To examine the convergence of source countries for tourism in Taiwan, we adopted a stationary Fourier model and conducted multiple structural breaks unit root and cross-sectional dependence tests. The results indicated that the demands of tourists from China, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Great Britain, and the United States, to Taiwan are only temporarily effected by major events. Furthermore, according the convergence tests, we found that only Thailand, Great Britain, and the United States exhibited convergence of stationary results. This indicates that the Taiwanese government’s tourism-based marketing promotion policies can be improved.
 
  In Chapter 3,we conducted empirical research on the panel data based on Granger causality tests to explore the strategies implemented by the Tourism Working Group that is a department of the Asia-Pacific Economic Corporation’s for promoting economic growth through sustainable tourism. The results showed the following: (1) countries or region supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis included Australia, Republic of Korea, Russia, Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong SAR; (2) countries supporting the growth-led open trade hypothesis included Philippines, the United States, Malaysia, and New Zealand; and (3) countries supporting the tourism-led open trade hypothesis included Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia, and New Zealand. Thus, the sustainable tourism policies of countries that have higher levels of tourism specialization produce better overall effectiveness for promoting economic development. We recommend that Taiwan enhance the accessibility of service trade, multilateral trade liberalization, and expedite opportunities for tourism exportation.
 
  In Chapter 4, we conduct empirical research based on a panel smooth threshold regression model, considering tourism specialization as a prerequisite threshold variable, to investigate the influence that tourism development has on economic growth. The influence that tourism specialization development of Least Developed Countries has on its economic growth can be divided into two categories. Countries with a high level of tourism specialization exhibited the following qualities: economic growth possessed conditional convergence, tourism development narrowed regional differences, government spending on the rate of economic growth was not significant, and open trade had a significant positive effect on economic growth. In contrast, countries with a low level of tourism specialization exhibited the following qualities: economic growth possessed unconditional convergence, and government spending and open trade had no significant influences on economic growth. The influence that tourism specialization development has on the economic growth of small tourism countries can be divided into two categories. Countries with lower levels of tourism specialization exhibited conditional convergence of economic growth; whereas countries with comparatively higher levels of tourism specialization exhibited unconditional convergence of economic growth. However, for both categories, government spending and open trade had no significant impact on economic growth. The influence that tourism specialization development has on the economic growth of countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) can be divided into three categories. The initial results show the conditional convergence of economic growth, that government spending has a negative effect on economic growth, and that open trade has a positive effect on economic growth. Countries that are not members of the OECD comprise two groups, where tourism specialization is either high or low. For both groups, increasing tourism specialization and open trade supports economic growth, and government spending has a negative effect on economic growth. Therefore, by increasing the level of tourism specialization, small island states with limited natural tourism resources can achieve conditional convergence of economic growth and reduce the disparity between regional economies.
目次 Table of Contents
第一章 緒論... ...1
 1.1 研究動機... ...2
 1.2 研究內容... ...2
 1.3 研究目的... ...3
 1.4 研究方法... ...5
 1.5 研究範圍與限制... ...5

第二章 臺灣觀光需求多重結構性斷裂檢定... ...7
 2.1 前言... ...7
 2.2 文獻探討... ...8
 2.3 研究方法與資料... ...11
  2.3.1 研究方法... ...11
  2.3.2 研究資料選取... ...19
 2.4 實證結果... ...21
 2.5 結論... ...30

第三章APEC國家觀光與經濟成長關係: 追蹤資料Granger因果分析... ...35
 3.1 前言... ...35
 3.2 文獻探討... ...37
  3.2.1 觀光引導成長假說... ...38
  3.2.2 成長引導觀光假說... ...42
  3.2.3 觀光與經濟成長雙向回饋假說... ...42
  3.2.4 觀光發展與貿易開放... ...43
 3.3 研究方法與資料... ...44
  3.3.1 研究方法... ...44
  3.3.2 研究資料選取... ...50
 3.4 實證結果... ...52
  3.4.1 模型一結果: PGDP–PTOU與OPEN... ...57
  3.4.2 模型二結果: PTOU–PGDP與OPEN... ...62
  3.4.3 模型三結果:OPEN–PGDP與PTOU... ...65
 3.5 結論... ...67

第四章觀光旅遊專業化與經濟成長: 追蹤平滑移轉迴歸分析... ...70
 4.1 前言... ...70
 4.2 文獻探討... ...71
 4.3 研究方法與資料... ...72
  4.3.1 研究方法... ...72
  4.3.2 研究步驟... ...75
  4.3.3 研究資料選取... ...86
 4.4 實證結果... ...89
  4.4.1 追蹤資料單根檢定... ...89
  4.4.2 追蹤資料共整合檢定... ...94
  4.4.3 模型檢定程序... ...94
  4.4.4 模型參數估計... ...95
 4.5 結論... ...103

第五章結論與建議... ...105
 5.1 結論... ...105
 5.2 建議... ...108
 5.3 後續研究方向... ...109

參考文獻... ...111
參考文獻 References
 中華民國交通部觀光局, (Tourism Bureau M.O.T.C.)(2011), “中華民國交通部觀光局行政資訊系統: 觀光政策∼年度施政重點”, URL: http://admin.taiwan.net.tw/public/public.aspx?no=122。
 ______(2012), “中華民國交通部觀光局行政資訊系統:100 年 觀光統計年報∼2009年至2011年觀光收支統計表”,URL:
 http://admin.taiwan.net.tw/upload/statistic/20120724/b71d5e15-13ec-4c10-b838-c69226463f1a.xls。
 中華民國行政院經濟建設委員會, (C.E.P.D.) (2007), “中華民國行政院經濟建設委員會: 發展觀光旅遊經濟,再創台灣優勢”,URL: http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspxsNo=0007867。
 周賓凰(2010), 《計量經濟學: 理論、觀念與應用》,台北:智勝文化。
 柏婉貞(2012), “各國旅遊導向成長假說之驗證”, 《輔仁管理評論》, 19(1), 95–116。
 美國商務部(2011), “美國期以提高旅遊便捷化與市場開放程度鞏固觀光旅遊業出口增長”, URL:http://www.wtocenter.org.tw/SmartKMS/do/www/readDoc?document id=112648。
 陳沛悌.鄧維兆.陳甫鼎(2007), “澎湖居民對觀光發展影響認知之時序差異分析”, 《運動與遊憩研究》, 1(4), 13–29。
 陳尚懋(2010), “泰國觀光業的政治經濟分析”, 《台灣東南亞學刊》, 7(1), 41–74。
 彭鈺琄(2007), “重大事件對國際觀光客來台人數之衝擊影響”, 碩士論文, 國立東華大學國際企業研究所。
 趙柏彥(2010), “重大事件對台灣觀光產業衝擊之經濟分析”,碩士論文, 國立屏東商業技術學院休閒遊憩與創意產業管理研究所。
 顏僑宏(2010), “觀光發展與經濟成長因果關係之探討”, 碩士論文, 逢甲大學合作經濟學研究所。
 Adamou, A. and Clerides, S. (2009), “Prospects and limits of tourism-led growth: The international evidence”, RiminiCentre for Economic Analysis (RCEA)Working PaperWP41-09.
 Akaike, Hirotugu (1969), “Fitting autoregressive models forprediction”, Annals of the Institute of StatisticalMathematics, 21(1), 243–247.
 Akinboade, O. A. and Braimoh, L. A. (2010), “Internationaltourismand economic development in South Africa. AGranger causality test”, International Journal of TourismResearch, 12(2), 149–163.
 Aly, H. Y. and Stazicich,M. C. (2004), “Terrorism andtourism: Is the impact permanent or transitory? Timeseries evidence from some MENA countries”,EconomicReserahc Forum, Egypt.
 Arellano,M. and Bond, S. (1991), “Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations”, The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297.
 Arezki, R., Cherif, R., and Piotrowski, J. (2009), “Tourismspecialization and economic development: Evidencefrom the UNESCO World Heritage List”, IMF workingpaper,WP/09/176.
 Awokuse, T. O. (2008), “Trade openness and economicgrowth: Is growth export-led or import-led ?”, AppliedEconomics, 40(2), 161–173.
 Bai, J. and Ng, S. (2004), “A PANIC attack on unit rootsand cointegration”,Econometrica, 72, 1127–1177.
 Bai, J. and Perron, P. (1998), “Estimating and testing linearmodels with multiple structural changes”, Econometrica,66(1), 47–78.
 ____(2003), “Computation and analysis of multiplestructural changes models”, Journal of AppliedEconometrics, 18, 899–906.
 Balaguer, J. and Cantavella-Jord′a, M. (2002), “Tourism asa long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case”,Applied Economics, 34, 877–884.
 Baltagi, B. H. (2008), “Forecasting with panel data”,Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 153–173.
 Barro, R. J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992), “Convergence”, Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 223–51.
 Becker, R., Enders, W., and Lee, J. (2004), “A general testfor time dependence in parameters”, Journal of AppliedEconometrics, 19(7), 899–906.
 _____(2006), “A stationairy test in the presence of anunknown number of smooth breaks”, Journal of TimeSeries Analysis, 27(3), 381–409.
 Belloumi,M. (2010), “The relationship between tourismreceipts, real effective exchange rate and economicgrowth in Tunisia”, International Journal of TourismResearch, 12(5), 550–560.
 Bhattacharya, M. and Narayan, P. K. (2005), “Testing therandom walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals :Evidence from Indian tourism”, Applied Economics, 37(13), 1485–1490.
 Brau, R., Lanza, A., and Pigliaru, F. (2003), “How fast arethe tourism countries growing? The cross-countryevidence”, Fondazione Eni EnricoMattei Nota di Lavoro,No. 85.
 _____(2005), “An investigation on the growth performanceof small tourism countries”, in Alessandro Lanza, AnilMarkandya, and Francesco Pigliaru (eds.), TheEconomics Of TourismAnd Sustainable Development,8–29, Cheltenham(UK): Edward Elgar.
 ____(2007), “How fast are small tourism countriesgrowing? Evidence from the date for 1980-2003”,Tourism Economics, 13(4), 603–614.
 Breitung, J. (2005), “A parametric approach to theestimation of cointegration vectors in panel data”,Econometric Reviews, 24(2), 151–173.
 Breitung, J. and Candelon, B. (2006), “Testing for short-and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach”,Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363–378.
 Breusch, T. and Pagan, A. (1980), “The Lagrangemultiplier test and its application to model specificationsin econometrics”, Reviews of Economics Studies, 47,239–253.
 Brida, J. G., Barquet, A., and Risso, W. A.(2009a), “Causality between economic growth andtourism expansion: Empirical evidence fromTrentino-AltoAdige”,MPRA Paper 25316,University Library ofMunich,Germany.
 Brida, J. G., Carrera, E. J. S., and Risso, W. A.(2008), “Tourism’s impact on long-run Mexican economicgrowth”, Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1–8.
 Brida, J. G., Pereyra, J. S., Risso, W. A., Devesa, M. J. S.,and Aguirre, S. Z. (2009b), “The tourism-led growthhypothesis: Empirical evidence from Colombia”,Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 4(2), 13–27.
 Brida, J. G. and Pulina, M. (2010), “A literature review onthe tourism-ledgrowth hypothesis”, Working PaperCRENoS 201017, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
 Brida, J. G. and Risso, W. A. (2010), “Tourism as a determinant of longrun economic growth”, Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 2(1), 14–28.
 _____(2011), “An econometric study of German tourismdemand in South Tyrol”, in Matias ′A., Nijkamp P., andSarmento M. (eds.), Tourism Economics : ImapctAnalysis, 67–78, Berlin Heidelberg: pringer-Verlag.
 Butler, R. W. (1980), “The concept of the tourist area cycleof evolution: Implications for the management ofresources”, Canadian Geographer, 24, 5–12.
 Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. Ll., Del Barrio-Castro, T., and L′opez-Bazo, E. (2005),“Breaking the panels: An application tothe GDP per capita”, Econometric Journal, 8(2), 159–175.
 Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. Ll. and German-Soto, V.(2009), “Panel data stochastic convergence analysis ofthe Mexican regions”, Empirical Economics, 37,303–327.
 Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. Ll. and Sans′o, A. (2006), “Testing the null of cointegration with structural breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(5), 623–646.
 Chang, C. L., Khamkaew, T., McAleer, M., and Tansuchat, R. (2010a), “A panel threshold model of tourism specialization and economic development”, International Journal of Intelligent Technologies and Applied Statistics, 3, 159–186.
 Chang, C.L., Khamkaew, T., and McAleer, M. (2010b), “IV estimation of a panel thresholdmodel of tourism specialization and economic development”, KIERWorking Papers 708, Kyoto University, Institute of conomic Research.
 Chang, Y. (2002), “Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency”, Journal of Econometrics, 110, 261–292.
 Chao, C.-C., Hazari, B. R., Laffargue, J.P., Sgro, P. M., and Yu, E. S. H. (2006),“Tourism,Dutch disease and welfare in an open dynamic economy”, The Japanese Economic Review, 57(4), 501–515.
 Chen, C.F. and Chiou Wei, S. Z. (2009), “Tourismexpansion, tourism uncertainty and economic growth:New evidence from Taiwan and Korea”, Tourism Management, 30, 812–818.
 Cheron, E. J. and Ritchie, J. R. B. (2010), “Leisureactivities and perceived risk”, Journal of LeisureResearch, 14(2), 139–154.Choi, I. (2001), “Unit root tests for panel data”, Journal ofInternational Money and Finance, 20, 249–272.
 ____(2002), “Combination unit root tests for cross-sectionally correlated panels”,Mimeo, Hong KongUniversity of Science and Technology.
 Clarke, J. and Mirza, S.A. (2006), “Combination unit root tests for crosssectionally correlated panels”, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76(3), 207–231.
 Clemente, J., Montanes, A., and Reyes, M.(1998), “Testing for unit roots in variables with a doublechange in the mean”, Economics Letters, 59, 175–182.
 Colletaz, Hurlin C., G. (2006), “Threshold effects in the public capital productivity: An international panel smooth transition approach”, Working Papers 39, University of Orleans.
 Cortes-Jimenez, I. and Pulina, M. (2010), “Inbound tourism and long run economic growth”, Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1), 61–74.
 Croes, R. and Vanegas Sr., Manuel (2008), “Cointegration and causality between tourismand poverty reduction”, Journal of Travel Research, 47, 94–103.
 De la Cruz Gallegos, J. L., Nuez Mora, J. A., and Canfield Rivera, C. (2010),“Drivers of economic growth: The case for tourism in Mexico”, Revista Brasileira de Economia de Empresas, 10(2), 211–353.
 Dickey, D.A and Fuller,W. A. (1979), “Distributions of theestimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”,Journal of American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–481.
 Dolado, J. J. and L‥utkepohl, H. (1996), “Making wald tests work for cointegrated var systems”, Econometric Reviews, 15(4), 369–386.
 Dritsakis, N. (2004), “Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: An empirical investigation for Greece using a causality analysis”, Tourism Economics, 10, 305–316.
 Durbarry, R. (2004), “Tourism and economic growth: the case of Mauritius”, Tourism Economics, 10(4), 389–401.
 Egdell, D.L.Sr., Allen, M.D., Smith, G., and Swanson, J.R. (2008), Tourism, Policy and Planning: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow, Britain, UK: Elsivier.
 Emirmahmutoglu, F. and Kose, N. (2011), “Testing for granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels”, Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870–876.
 Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2011), “A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599.
 Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987), “Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
 Eugenio-Martin, J. L., Morales, N. M., and Scarpa, R. (2004), “Tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries: A panel data approach”, Nota di Lavoro 26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper Series.
 Faulkner, B. (2001), “Towards a framework for tourismdisaster management”, Tourism Management, 22(2), 135–147.
 Felipa, de M. S. and Sofia, de S.V. (2012), “Tourism and growth in European countries: An application of likelihood-based panel cointegration”, Working Papers 2012/17,Department of Economics at the School of
  Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.
 Figini, P. and Vici, L. (2010), “Tourism and growth in a cross-section of countries, to appear in tourism economics”, Available at Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis,WP01-09.
 Fisher, R.A. (1932), Statistical Methods for Research Workers, Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd.
 Frankel, J.A. and Romer, D. (1999), “Does trade cause growth?”, American Economic Review, 89(3), 379–398.
 Gallant, R. (1981), “On the basis in flexible functional form and an essentially unbiased form: The flexible Fourier form”, Journal of Econometrics, 15, 211–353.
 Geweke, J. (1982), “Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77(378), 304–313.
 Geweke, J., Meese, R., and Dent, W. (1983), “Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence”, Journal of Econometrics, 21(2), 161–194.
 Ghali, M A. (1976), “Tourism and economic growth : An empirical study”, Economic Development & Cultural Change, 24(3), 527–538.
 Ghartey, E. E. (1993), “Causal relationship betweenexports and economic growth: some empirical evidencein Taiwan, Japan and the US”, Applied Economics, 25(9),1145–1152.
 Gonzalez, A., Terasvirta, T., and van Dijk, D.(2005), “Panelsmooth transition regression models”, SEE/EFIWorking Paper Series in Economics and Finance, No. 604.
 Granger, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating causal relations byeconometric models and cross-spectral methods”,Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438.
 ____(1988), “Causality, cointegration and control”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 551–559.
 Granger, C. W. J. and Newbold, P. (1974), “Spuriousregressions in econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics,2, 111–120.
 Granger, C. W. J. and Terasvirta, T. (1993), ModellingNonlinear Economic Relationships, Oxford: OxfordUniversity Press.
 Gries, T. and Redlin, M (2012), “Trade openness andeconomic growth: A panel causality analysis”, WorkingPapers 52, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
 Hadri, K. (2000), “Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data”, Econometric Journal, 3, 148–161.
 Hannan, E.J. and Quinn, B.G. (1979), “The determination of the order of an autoregressive”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 41(2), 190–195.
 Hansen, B. E. (1996), “Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis”, Econometrica, 64(2), 413–430.
 _____(1999), “Threshold effects in non dynamic panels:estimation, testing and inference”, Journal ofEconometrics, 93, 345–368.
 _____(2000), “Sample splitting and threshold estimation”, Econometrica, 68(3), 575–603.
 Harrison, A. (1996), “Openness and growth: A time-series,cross-country analysis for developing countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 48(2), 419–47.
 Hatemi-J, A. andHacker, R. S. (2009), “Can the LR test be helpful in choosing the optimal lag order in the VAR model when information criteria suggest different lag orders?”, Applied Economics, 41(9), 1121–1125.
 Hosoya, Y. (1991), “The decomposition and measurementof the interdependence between second-order stationaryprocess”, Probability Theory and Related Fields, 88(4),429–444.
 Hurlin, C. (2004), “Nelson and Plosser revisited: A re-examination using OECD panel data”, Document de Recherche No. 2004/23, Laboratoire d’Economied’Orleans.
 ____(2008), “Testing for Granger non causality inheterogeneous panels”, Mimeo, Department ofEconomics: University of Orleans.
 Hurlin, C. and Mignon, V. (2007), “Second generation panel unit root tests”, Working Papers halshs-00159842,HAL.
 Im, K.S., Lee, J., and Tieslau,M. (2002), “Panel LM unit-root tests with level shifts”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(1), 393–419.
 Im, K.S., Peseran, M.H., and Shin, Y. (2003), “Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
 Ivanov, S. H. and Webster, C. (2011), “Tourism’s contribution to economic growth: A global analysis for the first decade of the millenium”, working papers series, Social Science Research Network.
 Jang, M. J. and Shin, D. W. (2005), “Comparison of panel unit root tests under cross sectional dependence”,Economics Letters, 89(1), 12–17.
 Jin, J. C. (1995), “Export-led growth and four littledragons”, Journal of International Trade and EconomicDevelopment, 4(2), 203–215.
 Kadir, N. and Jusoff, K. (2010), “The cointegration and causality tests for tourism and trade in Malaysia”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2(1), 138–143.
 Kao, C. (1999), “Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44.
 Kao, C. and Chiang, M. H. (2000), “On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data”, Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179–222.
 Kapetanios, G. (2005), “Unit root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 26(1), 123–133.
 Kaplan, M. and Celik, T. (2008), “The impact of tourism on economic performance: The case of Turkey”, The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2 (1), 13–18.
 Karagoz,M. (2008), “The effect of terrorismon tourism: Evidence from unit root test with breaks”, This Research Paper Is Financially Supported the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey with the Project Number: 106K099.
 Katircioglu, S. T. (2009a), “Testing the tourism-led growth hypotheses: The case of Malta”, Acta Oeconomica, 59(3), 331–343.
 _____(2009b), “Tourism, trade and growth: The case ofCyprus”, Applied Economics, 41(21), 2741–2750.
 _____(2010), “Research note: Testing the tourism-ledgrowth hypothesis for Singapore– An empiricalinvestigation frombounds test to cointergration and Granger causality tests”, Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1095–1101.
 Katircioglu, S. T., Eminer, F., Aga, M., and Ozyigit, A.(2010), “Trade and growth in the Pacific islands – Empirical evidence from the bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality test”, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4, 1095–1101.
 Khan, H. and Lin, C.C. (2002), “International trade and tourism: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests by using Singapore data”, Technical report, 33rd AnnualConference of Travel and Tourism Association (TTRA),Arlington, Virginia, USA.
 Khan, H., Toh, R.S., and Chua, L. (2005), “Tourism and trade: Cointegration and granger causality tests”, Journal of Travel Research, 44, 171–176.
 Kim,H. J., Cheng,M.H., and Jang, S. S. (2006), “Tourism expansion and economic development: The case of Taiwan”, Tourism Management, 27(5), 925–933.
 Konya, L. (2000), “Export–led growth or growth–driven export? new evidence from Granger causality analysis on OECD countries”, Working Papers No.15/2000, Central European University.
 _____(2004), “Export-led growth, growth-driven export, both or none? Granger causality analysis on OECD countries”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1), 73-94.
 ______(2006), “Exports and growth: Granger causalityanalysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach”,Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978–992.Krueger, A.O. (1997), “Trade policy and economic
  development: How we learn”, America Economic Review, 87, 1–22.
 Kulendran, N. andWilson, K. (2000), “Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel?”, Applied Economics, 32(8), 1001–1009.
 Kurozumi, E. (2002), “Testing for stationarity with a break”, Journal of Econometrics, 108, 63–99.
 Lau, E.,Oh, S. L., andHu, S. S. (2008), “Tourist arrivals and economic growth in Sarawak”,MPRA Paper 9888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
 Lean, H. H. and Smyth, R. (2008), “Are Malaysia’s tourism markets converging? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests with structural breaks”, Tourism economics,14(1), 97–112.
 _____(2009), “Asian financial crisis, avian flu and terroristthreats: Are shocks to Malaysian tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?”, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 14(3), 301–321.
 Lean, H. H. and Tang, C. F. (2010), “Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis stable for Malaysia? A note”, International Journal of Tourism Research, 12, 375–378.
 Lee, C. C. and Chang, C. P. (2008), “Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels”, Tourism Management, 29, 180–192.
 Lee, C. C. and Chien,M. S. (2008), “Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan”, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 77, 358–368.
 Lee, C. G. (2008), “Tourism and economic growth: The case of Singapore”, Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 8(1), 89–98.
 ____(2012), “Tourism, trade, and income : Evidence fromSingapore”, Anatolia: An International Journal ofTourism and Hospitality Research, 23(3), 348-358.
 Lee, J. and Strazicich, M.C. (2003), “Minimum LM unit roottest with two structural breaks”, The Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
 Levin, A., Lin, C. F., and Chu, J. C. S. (2002), “Unit roottests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sampleproperties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108,1–24.
 Lie, X., Song, H., and Romily, P. (1997), “An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China”, Applied Economics, 29 (12), 1679–1687.
 Lionetti, S., Brida, J. G., and Risso,W. A. (2009), “Long run economic growth and tourism: inferring from Uruguay”, Quaderni della facolta di scienze economichedell’universita di lugano, Biblioteca universitaria di Lugano(University Library of Lugano).
 Lokman, G. and Abdulnasser, H. J. (2005), “Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?”, Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499–504.
 Lorde, T and Moore, W (2008), “Co-movement in tourist arrivals in the Caribbean”, Tourism Economics, 14(3), 631–643.
 Louca, C. (2006), “Income and expenditure in the tourism industry: time series evidence from Cyprus”, Tourism Economics, 12(4), 603–617.
 Lumsdaine, R. L. and Papell, D. H. (1997), “Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212–218.
 Lutkepohl, H. (1993), Introduction to Multiple Time SeriesAnalysis, Germany: Springer-Verlag.
 Luukkonen, R., Saikkonen, P., and T., Terasvirta(1988), “Testing linearity against smooth transitionautoregressive models”, Biometrika, 75, 491-499.
 Maddala,G. S. and Kim, I.M. (1998),Unit roots, cointegration and structural change, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.
 Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999), “A comparative study of panel data unit root tests and a simple alternative”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631–652.
 Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., andWeil, D. N. (1992), “A contribution to the empirics of economic growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407–437.
 McKinnon, R. (1964), “Foreign exchange constrain in economic development and efficient aid allocation”, Economic Journal, 74, 388–409
 Mehmet, O. and Tahiroglu, M. (2002), “Growth and equity in microstates: Does size matter in development?”, International Journal of Social Economics, 29, 152–62..
 Min, J. C.H. (2005), “The effect of the sars illness ontourism in Taiwan: An empirical study”, International Journal of Management, 22(3), 497–506.
 Min, J.C.H., Kung, H.H., and Liu, H.H. (2010),“Interventions affecting air transport passenger demand in Taiwan”, African Journal of Business Management, 4(10), 2121–2131.
 Min, J.C.H., Lim, C., and Kung, H.H. (2011), “Interventionanalysis of SARS on Japanese tourism demand for Taiwan”, Quality and Quantity, 45(1), 91–102.
 Moon, R. and Perron, B. (2004), “Testing for a unit root inpanels with dynamic factors”, Journal of Econometrics,12, 81–126.
 Narayan, P. K. (2005), “Testing the unit root hypothesis when the alternative is a trend break stationary process: An application to tourist arrivals to Fiji”, Tourism Economics, 11(3), 351–364.
 ____(2006), “Are Australia’s tourism markets converging?”,Applied Economics,38(3), 1153–1162.
 ____(2007), “Testing convergence of Fiji’s tourismmarkets”, Pacific Economic Review, 12(5), 651–663.
 Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., Prasad, A., and Prasad, B. C. (2010), “Tourism and economic growth: A panel data analysis for Pacific island countries”,Tourism Economics, 16(1), 169–183.
 Narayan, P. K. and Popp, S. (2010), “A new unit root testwith two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time”, Journal of Applied Statistics, 37, 1425–1438.
 ____(2013), “Size and power properties of structuralbreak unit root tests”, Applied Economics, 45, 721–728.
 New Straits Times (2012a), “Malaysia aims 36 milliontourist arrivals by 2020”, URL: http://www.nst.com.my/latest/malaysia-aims-36-million-tourist-arrivals-by-2020-1.145762#ixzz2Crjct6SO.
 ____(2012b), “Targeting high-yielding tourists”, URL:http://www.nst. com.my/nation/general/targeting-high-yielding-tourists-1.149930#ixzz2Crfb9ZSB.
 Newey, W. K. and West, K. D. (1994), “Automatic lagselection in covariance matrix estimation”, Review of Economic Studies, 61(4), 631–53.
 Nowak, J. J., Sahli,M., and Cortes-Jimenez, I.(2007), “Tourism, capital good imports and economicgrowth: theory and evidence for Spain”, TourismEconomics, 13(4), 515–536.
 Odhiambo, N. M. (2011), “Tourism development andeconomic growth in Tanzania: Empirical evidence from the ARDL-Bounds testing approach”, Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 45(3), 71–83.
 Oh, C. O. (2005), “The contribution of tourism developmentto economic growth in the Korean economy”, Tourism Management, 26(1), 39–44.
 Ongan, S. and Demir‥oz, D. M. (2005), “The contribution oftourism to the long-run Turkish economic growth”, Ekonomicky Casopis, 53(9), 880–894.
 Palmer, T. and Riera, A. (2003), “Tourism and environmental taxes. With special reference to the “Balearic ecotax””, Tourism Management, 24(6),665–674.
 Pambudi,D., Ho, V. T., Spurr, R., Forsyth, P., Dwyer, L.,and Hoque, S. (2009),“Tourism satellite accounts 2007–08: Summary spreadsheets 2009”, Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre, Gold Coast, Qld.
 Payne, J. E. and Mervar, A. (2010), “Research note: The tourism-growth nexus in Croatia”, Tourism Economics, 16 (4), 1089–1094.
 Pedroni, P. (1999), “Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653–670.
 ____(2004), “Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finitesample properties of pooled time series testswith anapplication to the PPP hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625.
 Perron, P. (1989), “The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, 1361–1401.
 ___(1997), “Further evidence on breaking trend functionsin macroeconomic variables”, Journal of Econometrics, 80(2), 355–385.
 Perron, P. and Vogelsang, T. J. (1997), “Nonstationarity and level shifts with an application to purchasing power parity”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 301–320.
 Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., and Yamagata, T. (2008), “A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence”, Econometrics Journal, 11, 105–127.
 Pesaran,M.H. and Yamagata, T. (2008), “Testing slopehomogeneity in large panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50–93.
 Pesaran,M.H. (2003), “A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross section dependence”,Mimeo, University of Southern California.
 ____(2004), “General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
 ____(2006), “Estimation and inference in largeheterogeneous panel with a multifactor error structure”,Econometrica, 74(4), 967–1012.
 ____(2007), “A simple panel unit root test in the presenceof cross section dependence”, Journal of AppliedEconometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
 Pesaran,M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J. (1999), “Pooledmean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneouspanels”, Journal of the American Statistical Association,94(446), 621–634.
 Phillips, P.C.B. and Sul, D. (2003), “Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence”, Econometrics Journal, 6(1), 217–259.
 Po, W.C. and Huang, B. N. (2008), “Tourism development and economic growth – a nonlinear approach”, Physica A, 387, 5535–5542.
 Polat, E., T‥urkan, S., and Gunay, S. (2010), “Relationship between tourism and trade in Turkey”, Proceedings: International Conference On Applied Economics 2010.
 Popp, S. (2008), “New innovational outlier unit root test with a break at an unknown time”, Journal of StatisticalComputation and Simulation, 78(12), 1143–1159.
 Puranti, I., Sarmidi, T., and Mohd Salleh, N. H. (2011),“Trade, tourism and economic growth relationship – A cross section analysis”, Technical report, persidangan Kebangsaan Ekonomi Malaysia ke VI (PROSIDING PERKEMVI, JILID 2).
 Rambaldi, A. N. and Doran, H. E. (1996), “Testing for granger non-causality in cointegrated systems made easy”, Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics 88, Department of Econometrics, The University of New England.
 Salleh, N.H.M., Othman, R., and Ramachandran, S. (2007), “Malaysia’s tourism demand from selected countries: The ARDL approach to cointegration”, International Journal of Economics and Management, 1
  (3), 345–363.
 Sarmidi, T. and Salleh, N. H. (2010), “Dynamic inter-relationship between trade, economic growth and tourism in Malaysia”, MPRA Paper 21056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
 Schmidt, P. and Phillips, P.C.B. (1992), “LM test for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends”, Oxford Bulletin of Economicsand Statistics, 54, 257–287.
 Schubert, S. F., G., Brida J., andW. A., Risso (2011), “Theimpacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism”, Tourism Management, 32(2), 377–385.
 Schwarz, G. (1978), “Estimating the dimension of a model”, Annuals of Statistics, 6(2), 461–464.
 Schwert, G. W. (1989), “Tests for unit roots: A Monte Carlo investigation”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2, 147–159.
 Seetanah, B. (2011), “Assessing the dynamic economic impact of tourism for island economies”, Annals of Tourism Research, 38(1), 291–308.
 Sen, A. (2003), “On unit-root tests when the alternative is a trend-break stationary process”, Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, 21(1), 174–184.
 Sequeira, T. N. and Campos, C. (2005), “International tourism and economic growth: A panel data approach”,Working Papers 2005.141, Fondazione Eni EnricoMattei.
 Sequeira, T. N. and Nunes, P. M. (2008), “Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach”, Applied Economics, 40(16), 2431–2441.
 Shan, J. and Wilson, K. (2001), “Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China”, Applied Economics Letters, 8(4), 279–283.
 Sims, C. A. (1972), “Money, income, and causality”, American Economic Review, 62(4), 540–52.
 Smyth, R., Nielsen, I., andMishra, V. (2009), “I’ve been to Bali too (and I will be going back): Are shocks to bali’s tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?”, Applied Economics, 41(11), 1367–1378.
 Solow, RobertM. (1956), “A contribution to the theory of economic growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.
 Sugiyarto, G., Blake, A., and Sinclair, M.T. (2003),“Tourism and globalization– economic impact in Indonesia”, Annals of TourismResearch, 30(3),683–701.
 Swamy, P.A.V.B. (1970), “Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model”,Econometrica, 38, 311–323.
 Tang, C. F. (2011a), “Oldwine in new bottles: Are Malaysia’s tourism markets converging?”, Asia PacificJournal of TourismResearch, 16(3), 263–272.
 ____(2011b), “Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia”,MPRA Paper 29237,University Library of Munich, Germany.
 ____(2011c), “Tourism, real output and real effectiveexchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples”, MPRA Paper 29379, UniversityLibrary ofMunich, Germany.
 ____(2011d), “An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia”, International Journal of Social Economics, 38(1), 50–69.
 Tang, C.H. and Jang, S.C. (2009), “The tourism-economy causality in the United States: A subindustry level examination”, Tourism Management, 30(4), 553–558.
 Tang, T. C. (2006), “Export led growth in Hong Kong : Empirical evidence from the components of exports”, International Journal of Business and Society, 7(1), 30–52.
 Tekin, R. B. (2012), “Economic growth, exports and foreign direct investment in Least Developed Countries: A panel Granger causality analysis”,Economic Modelling, 29(3), 868 – 878.
 Temple, J. (1998), “The new growth evidence”, Journal ofEconomic Literature, 37(1), 112–156.
 Terasvirta, T. (1994), “Specification, estimation, andevaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(425), 208–218.
 Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995), “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes”, Journal of Econometrics,66(1), 225–250.
 Tuan, C. and Ng, L.F.Y. (1998), “Export trade, tradederivatives, and economic growth of Hong Kong: A new scenario”, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 7(1), 111–137.
 UNCTAD (2009), The Least Developed Countries Report: The State and Development Governance, New York and Geneva.: United Nations publication, sales No. E.09.II.D.9.
 UNWTO (2012), Tourism Highlights 2011 Edition, United Nations: World Tourism Organization.
 USDC (2010), “U.S. travel and tourism industries: A year in review (2010)”, URL: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/.
 Vellas, F. and Becherel, L. (1995), International Tourism: An Economic Perspective, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
 Vogelsang, T. J. and Perron, P. (1998), “Additional tests for a unit root allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time”, International Economic Review, 39(4), 1073–1100.
 Wang, Y.S. (2009), “The impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on Taiwan’s international inbound tourism demand”, Tourism Management, 30(1), 75–82.
 WTTC (2012a), “Mexico economic impact report”, URL:http://www.wttc. org/site media/uploads/ downloads/mexico2012.pdf.
 _____(2012b), “Tourism in Russia contributes more to GDP than automotivemanufacturing”,URL: http://www.wttc.org/site media/uploads/downloads/Russia sector release study.pdf.
 ____(2012c), “Travel & tourism economic impact 2012Taiwan”, URL:http://www.wttc.org/site media/uploads/downloads/taiwan2012.pdf.
 Yilanci, V. and Eris, Z. A. (2012), “Are tourism markets of Turkey converging or not? A Fourier stationary analysis”, Anatolia: An International Journal of Tourismand Hospitality Research, 23(2), 1–10.
 Zellner, A. (1962), “An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57, 348–368.
 Zivot, E. and Andrews, K. (1997), “Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(10), 251–270.
 Zortuk,M. (2009), “Economic impact of tourismon Turkey’s economy: Evidence from cointegration tests”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 25, 231–239.
電子全文 Fulltext
本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。
論文使用權限 Thesis access permission:自定論文開放時間 user define
開放時間 Available:
校內 Campus: 已公開 available
校外 Off-campus: 已公開 available


紙本論文 Printed copies
紙本論文的公開資訊在102學年度以後相對較為完整。如果需要查詢101學年度以前的紙本論文公開資訊,請聯繫圖資處紙本論文服務櫃台。如有不便之處敬請見諒。
開放時間 available 已公開 available

QR Code