為探討全球海洋數值模式應用於臺灣周邊海域的成效，本研究針對美國海軍實驗室(Naval Research Laboratory, NRL)所發展的全球海軍近岸海洋模式(1/8° Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model, GNCOM)以及全球混合座標海洋模式(1/12° Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model, G-HYCOM, 以下簡稱HYCOM)於2012年所模擬的海表面溫度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)結果進行分析，並將2種模式所模擬之SST資料與高解析度海表面溫度(Group for High Resolution SST, GHRSST)的衛星遙測資料以及交通部中央氣象局(Central Weather Bureau, CWB)的浮標SST資料相互驗證比較。
研究區域選定為臺灣周邊海域(15~30 °N; 115~130 °E)，第一步運用CWB之浮標SST資料來驗證GHRSST所提供之衛星SST資料的準確度，經分析後，兩者之間的均方根誤差(Root Mean Square Error, RMSE)皆在2 ℃以內，而相關係數(Correlation Coefficient, R)皆可達0.88以上，由此確認GHRSST所提供之衛星SST資料於臺灣周邊海域具有一定的可信度。第二步以GHRSST之衛星SST資料作為正確的實測值，來驗證GNCOM及HYCOM所模擬之SST，結果顯示於淺水區域有較明顯之誤差。
為找出淺水區域誤差的來源，本研究將GNCOM、HYCOM及GHRSST之SST資料區分為4個時段進行再分析，結果顯示於2012年1~3月期間，臺灣海峽及臺灣東北海域一帶之RMSE最為顯著。1~3月主要為冬季東北季風時期，於此期間有大陸沿岸流(低溫、低鹽度)流經臺灣海峽西側，故而使得SST降低，但模式未能準確掌握大陸沿岸流的趨勢，以致於產生較大的誤差。此外針對臺灣東北海域一帶，冷水來源主要為地形湧升流，模式亦未能準確掌握地形湧升流的趨勢，致使有較大的誤差產生。
透過模式及衛星遙測資料分析比較後，得知於2012年期間針對本論文研究區域內(15~30 °N; 115~130 °E)，GNCOM及HYCOM所模擬之SST於深水區域具有一定的可信度，而於淺水區域(例如臺灣海峽、臺灣東北海域)則是有著較顯著的誤差。

This study validates the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reanalyses data from two ocean models around Taiwan (15 °N to 30 °N, 115 °E to 130 °E) for the year 2012. The two models are the US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (GNCOM), and the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Both models had the most advance data assimilation techniques including satellite altimetry and SST data. The spatial resolutions of GNCOM and HYCOM are 12.5 and 8 km, respectively. The observational SST data include the satellite SST from the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) and buoys maintained by Central Weather Bureau (CWB).
The parameters in statistical analysis include mean error (ME), standard deviation (S), root mean square errors (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R). The first step was to validate SST data of GHRSST against CWB buoys. The RMSE between CWB buoys and GHRSST data are less than 2 ℃, and the correlation coefficients (R) are higher than 0.88. The GHRSST data, therefore, are considered meaningful for the study region around Taiwan. The next step is to validate SST data of GHRSST against GMCOM and HYCOM. The results show larger RMSE between models and GHRSST in two regions, the Taiwan Strait and the northeast of Taiwan especially in winter (January to March). Further analyses of the modeling data suggest that the large errors were attributed to two major reasons. Firstly, the southward China Coastal Current (CCC) in winter was not well resolved in the modeling, likely due to assimilated forcing. Secondly, the coarse bathymetric data at the northeast of Taiwan was unable to produce topographic upwelling which has been observed years ago.

論文審定書 i
誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract v
目錄 vi
圖次 ix
表次 xii
符號說明 xiii
第一章、緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 研究區域介紹及文獻回顧 1
1.2.1 研究區域範圍 1
1.2.2 氣候 4
1.2.3 水深地形 4
1.2.4 海流 7
1.2.5 流量 11
1.2.6 湧升流 13
1.3 模式研究回顧 15
1.4 研究目的 20
第二章、研究資料來源及介紹 21
2.1 全球海軍近岸海洋模式(Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model, GNCOM) 21
2.1.1 GNCOM輸出結果簡述 21
2.2 混合座標海洋模式(HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) 24
2.2.1 HYCOM輸出結果簡述 24
2.3 高解析度海表面溫度(Group for High Resolution SST, GHRSST) 26
2.3.1 GHRSST 衛星遙測資料簡述 26
2.4 CWB浮標資料 27
2.4.1 CWB浮標資料簡述 28
2.5 全球水深地形資料(ETOPO1) 29
2.5.1 ETOPO1 全球地形水深資料簡述 29
第三章、分析步驟及方法 30
3.1 分析步驟 30
3.2 分析方法 30
3.2.1 內插法 30
3.2.2 驗證指標 30
第四章、結果 31
4.1 GHRSST衛星資料準確度之驗證 31
4.1.1 驗證結果 31
4.1.2 小結 41
4.2 SST比較驗證 42
4.2.1 統一模式與衛星之格式 42
4.2.2 單一點位之SST比較 43
4.2.3 臺灣周邊海域之SST比較 47
4.2.4 小結 56
第五章、討論 59
5.1 淺水區域誤差來源探討 59
5.1.1 資料同化方法檢驗 59
5.1.2 小結 64
5.2 臺灣周邊海域冷水來源探討 65
5.2.1 四個時段的S及RMSE探討 65
5.2.2 臺灣海峽及臺灣東北海域2012年1~3月SST分析比較 81
5.2.3 小結 89
5.3 水深地形資料比較 90
第六章、結論與建議 92
參考文獻 97
附錄1. 內插法介紹 104
附錄2. 驗證指標介紹 106
附錄3. 內插法準確度之確認 109

Barron, C. N., Kara, A. B., Martin, P. J., Rhodes, R. C., & Smedstad, L. F. (2006). Formulation, implementation and examination of vertical coordinate choices in the Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Ocean Modelling, 11(3), 347-375.
Barron, C. N., Kara, A. B., Rhodes, R. C., Rowley, C., & Smedstad, L. F. (2007).Validation Test Report for the 1/8° deg Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model Nowcast/Forecast System (No. NRL/MR/7320-07-9019). NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV.
Bleck, R. (2002). An oceanic general circulation model framed in hybrid isopycnic-Cartesian coordinates. Ocean modelling, 4(1), 55-88.
Bleck, R., & Smith, L. T. (1990). A wind‐driven isopycnic coordinate model of the north and equatorial Atlantic Ocean: 1. Model development and supporting experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012), 95(C3), 3273-3285.
Blumberg, A. F., & Mellor, G. L. (1987). A description of a three‐dimensional coastal ocean circulation model. Three-dimensional coastal ocean models, 1-16.
Cheng, Y. H., Ho, C. R., Zheng, Z. W., Lee, Y. H., & Kuo, N. J. (2009). An algorithm for cold patch detection in the Sea off northeast Taiwan using multi-sensor data.Sensors, 9(7), 5521-5533.
Chern, C. S., & Wang, J. (1990). On the mixing of waters at a northern offshore area of Taiwan. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 1(3), 297-306.
Chuang, W. S. (1985). Dynamics of subtidal flow in the Taiwan Strait. Journal of the Oceanographical Society of Japan, 41(2), 65-72.
Cummings, J. A., & Smedstad, O. M. (2013). Variational data assimilation for the global ocean Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications (Vol. II) (pp. 303-343): Springer.
Fox, D. N., Barron, C. N., Carnes, M. R., Booda, M., Peggion, G., & Van Gurley, J. (2002). The modular ocean data assimilation system. OCEANOGRAPHY-WASHINGTON DC-OCEANOGRAPHY SOCIETY-, 15(1), 22-28.
Hogan, P., Wallcraft, A., Zamudio, L., DeRada, S., & Thoppil, P. (2006). An Overview of Nested Regions Using HYCOM. NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS.
Hogan, P. J., Wallcraft, A. J., Hurlburt, H. E., Metzger, E. J., & Townsend, T. L. (2003). Nesting Studies with HYCOM at NRL. NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS.
Hogan, T. F., & Rosmond, T. E. (1991). The description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's spectral forecast model. Monthly Weather Review, 119(8), 1786-1815.
Hu, J. Y., Kawamura, H., Hong, H. S., Suetsugu, M., & Lin, M. S. (2001). Hydrographic and satellite observations of summertime upwelling in the Taiwan Strait: A preliminary description. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,12(2), 415-430.
Isobe, A. (2008). Recent advances in ocean-circulation research on the Yellow Sea and East China Sea shelves. Journal of oceanography, 64(4), 569-584.
Jan, S.; Chen, C. C.; Tsai, Y. L.; Yang, Y. J.; Wang, J.; Chern, C. S.; Gawarkiewicz, G.; Lien, R. C.; Centurioni, L.; Kuo, J. Y., (2011). Mean Structure and Variability of the Cold Dome Northeast of Taiwan. Oceanography, 24(4), 100-109.
Jan, S., Tseng, Y. H., & Dietrich, D. E. (2010). Sources of water in the Taiwan Strait.Journal of oceanography, 66(2), 211-221.
Jan, S., Wang, J., Chern, C. S., & Chao, S. Y. (2002). Seasonal variation of the circulation in the Taiwan Strait. Journal of Marine Systems, 35(3), 249-268.
Johns, W. E., Lee, T. N., Zhang, D., Zantopp, R., Liu, C. T., & Yang, Y. (2001). The Kuroshio east of Taiwan: Moored transport observations from the WOCE PCM-1 array. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 31(4), 1031-1053.
Kara, A. B., Barron, C. N., Martin, P. J., Smedstad, L. F., & Rhodes, R. C. (2006). Validation of interannual simulations from the 1/8° global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Ocean Modelling, 11(3), 376-398.
Ko, D. S., Martin, P. J., Rowley, C. D., & Preller, R. H. (2008). A real-time coastal ocean prediction experiment for MREA04. Journal of Marine Systems, 69(1), 17-28.
Lee, I. H., Ko, D. S., Wang, Y. H., Centurioni, L., & Wang, D. P. (2013). The mesoscale eddies and Kuroshio transport in the western North Pacific east of Taiwan from 8-year (2003–2010) model reanalysis. Ocean Dynamics, 63(9-10), 1027-1040.
Liu, K. K., Gong, G. C., Lin, S., Yang, C. Y., Wei, C. L., Pai, S. C., & Wu, C. K. (1992). The year-round upwelling at the shelf break near the northern tip of Taiwan as evidenced by chemical hydrography. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 3(3), 243-275.
Martin, P. J. (2000). Description of the navy coastal ocean model version 1.0 (No. NRL/FR/7322--00-9962). NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS.
Nitani, H. (1972). Beginning of the Kuroshio. Kuroshio, its physical aspects, 129-163.
Oey, L. Y., Chang, Y. L., Lin, Y. C., Chang, M. C., Xu, F. H., & Lu, H. F. (2013). ATOP-the Advanced Taiwan Ocean Prediction System based on the mpiPOM Part 1: model descriptions, analyses and results. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 24(1), 137-158.
Richman, J. G., Hurlburt, H., Metzger, E. J., Shriver, J. F., Wallcraft, A., & Smedstad, O. M. (2010). Impact of data assimilation and resolution on modeling the Gulf Stream pathway. Paper presented at the High Performance Computing Modernization Program Users Group Conference (HPCMP-UGC), 2010 DoD.
Rosmond, T. E., Teixeira, J., Peng, M., Hogan, T. F., & Pauley, R. (2002). Navy operational global atmospheric prediction system (NOGAPS): Forcing for ocean models. Oceanography, 15(1), 99-108.
Rowley, C., Barron, C., Smedstad, L., & Rhodes, R. (2002, October). Real-time ocean data assimilation and prediction with global NCOM. In OCEANS'02 MTS/IEEE (Vol. 2, pp. 775-780). IEEE.
Shulman, I., Ramp, S. R., Anderson, S., Metzger, E. J., & Sakalaukus, P. (2013). Impact of remote forcing, model resolution and bathymetry on predictions of currents on the shelf. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 61, 35-45.
Smedstad, O. M., Hurlburt, H. E., Metzger, E. J., Rhodes, R. C., Shriver, J. F., Wallcraft, A. J., & Kara, A. B. (2003). An operational eddy resolving 1/16° global ocean nowcast/forecast system. Journal of Marine Systems, 40, 341-361.
Sun, X. P. (1987). Analysis of the surface path of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea. Essays on the Investigation of Kuroshio, 1-14.
Tang, D., Kester, D. R., Ni, I. H., Kawamura, H., & Hong, H. (2002). Upwelling in the Taiwan Strait during the summer monsoon detected by satellite and shipboard measurements. Remote sensing of environment, 83(3), 457-471.
Tang, T. Y., Tai, J. H., & Yang, Y. J. (2000). The flow pattern north of Taiwan and the migration of the Kuroshio. Continental Shelf Research, 20(4), 349-371.
Tseng, C., Lin, C., Chen, S., & Shyu, C. (2000). Temporal and spatial variations of sea surface temperature in the East China Sea. Continental Shelf Research, 20(4), 373-387.
Teague, W. J., Jacobs, G. A., Ko, D. S., Tang, T. Y., Chang, K. I., & Suk, M. S. (2003). Connectivity of the Taiwan, Cheju, and Korea straits. Continental Shelf Research, 23(1), 63-77.
Tsui, I. F., & Wu, C. R. (2012). Variability analysis of Kuroshio intrusion through Luzon Strait using growing hierarchical self-organizing map. Ocean Dynamics, 62(8), 1187-1194.
Wang, Y. H., Jan, S., & Wang, D. P. (2003). Transports and tidal current estimates in the Taiwan Strait from shipboard ADCP observations (1999–2001). Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 57(1), 193-199.
Wang, Y. H., Chiao, L. Y., Lwiza, K. M., & Wang, D. P. (2004). Analysis of flow at the gate of Taiwan Strait. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012), 109(C2).
Wu, C. R., & Hsin, Y. C. (2012). The forcing mechanism leading to the Kuroshio intrusion into the South China Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012), 117(C7).
Wu, C. R., Lu, H. F., & Chao, S. Y. (2008). A numerical study on the formation of upwelling off northeast Taiwan. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012), 113(C8).
Yu, H. S., & Hong, E. (1992). Physiographic characteristics of the continental margin, northeast Taiwan. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 3(3), 419-434.
王玉懷、莊文思 (1995)，台灣附近海域風場之觀測，中央氣象局氣象學報 第四十一卷第二期。
戴仁華 (1998)，台灣北部的流場與黑潮的擺動，國立台灣大學海洋研究所碩士論文。
柯銘澤 (2001)，臺灣周圍的流場，國立臺灣大學海洋研究所碩士論文。
許至璁 (2002)，二維有限解析法明渠水理與輸砂模式之研發與應用，國立交通大學土木工程系博士論文。
梁文德、吳朝榮、莊文思、唐存勇、楊穎堅 (2004)，颱風對海洋溫度場與流場之影響---數值模式研究，2004地球科學聯合學術研討會論文集，臺灣地球科學學會。
郭慧敏 (2004)，台灣海峽水團時空變化之研究，國立中山大學海洋物理研究所碩士論文。
許瑋真、辛宜佳、吳朝榮 (2004)，臺灣附近海域傳輸量之研究，2004地球科學聯合學術研討會論文集，臺灣地球科學學會。
林勝豐 (2005)，台灣海峽海潮流之研究，國立臺灣大學海洋研究所博士論文。
莊文思 (2006)，北南海變動研究-子計畫三：南海與其鄰近海域間海洋互動機制之數值模式研究，國立臺灣大學海洋研究所研究計畫。
馮智源 (2006)，應用ROMS海洋模式模擬南灣海域潮流流場，國立成功大學水利及海洋工程學系碩士論文。
歐瑞信 (2006)，台灣東北海域海表溫之時空變化，國立臺灣海洋大學海洋環境資訊學系碩士論文。
許群 (2006)，臺灣海峽海流的季節與年際變化，國立台灣師範大學地球科學系碩士論文。
江紫綾、吳朝榮、楊穎堅、梁文德 (2006)，南海海流模式研究，第三屆國軍軍事作業研究與模式模擬論壇論文集，國防部。
盧鴻復、吳朝榮、李忠潘 (2007)，臺灣東北海域湧升流之時空變化，第 29 屆海洋工程研討會論文集，國立成功大學，613-618。
張育綾、吳朝榮、李忠潘 (2007)，北台灣海峽數值模擬研究，第 29 屆海洋工程研討會論文集，國立成功大學，595-599。
蔡沛紋 (2007)，臺灣海峽湧升流之研究，國立臺灣師範大學地球科學系碩士論文。
陳沛君 (2008)，區域風場影響台灣海峽流量變化之研究，國立中山大學海洋物理研究所碩士論文。
陳俊廷 (2008)，台灣周圍海域潮汐特性及殘差流之研究，國立臺灣海洋大學海洋環境資訊學系碩士論文。
曲大鹏 (2008)，POM海洋数值模式及对渤、黄、东海潮汐潮流模拟试验的初步分析，青島國家海洋局第一海洋研究所碩士論文。
鄭志文 (2009)，颱風對西北太平洋上層海洋影響之衛星觀測與數值模擬研究，國立臺灣海洋大學海洋環境資訊學系博士論文。
吳朝榮 (2010)，西太平洋邊緣海波浪-環流耦合數值模式之發展(I)，國科會補助研究計畫，行政院國家科學委員會。
陳易鋒 (2011)，台灣西南海域海潮流模擬與特性探討，國立成功大學水利及海洋工程學系碩士論文。