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博碩士論文 etd-1106112-143704 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-1106112-143704
論文名稱
Title
潮汐預報模式資料同化可行性研究
Data Assimilation Technique Applied to Tidal Prediction Model
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
129
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2012-10-30
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2012-11-06
關鍵字
Keywords
Cressman、資料同化、調和分析、二維水動力模式
Cressman, Data Assimilation, Tidal Model
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5683 次,被下載 442
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5683 times, has been downloaded 442 times.
中文摘要
近年因電腦技術發達,大多領域都將模式(Modeling)用於預報或規劃等用途,而現階段模式多已進入無人操作的即時線上作業系統,但模式會因地形、氣候變化、等因素產生許多不定性,可能會造成準確性的問題,在模式的建置過程中也可能因為計算量的考量設計或是對現象描述的精確度不足而導致模式偏差,為此開發出利用實測資料與模式結果同化以修正模式不穩定的資料同化系統,其原理是在模式運算過程的中繼結果輸出,將中繼結果與實測資料經過統計的計算修正中繼結果資料,再將中繼結果資料輸入模式運算,藉以修正模式的運算結果以減低模式結果偏差。
資料同化方法繁多,對不同的模式系統及模式的實測資料蒐集的程度等因素有不同的設計,本研究所使用的模式為二維水動力模式,輸入資料為由模式所計算出的實測結果擷取,資料同化的系統選擇Cressman的資料同化系統(Cressman, 1959),在導入模式實用前,先以理想化地形的自製潮汐模式作為Cressman資料同化系統的測試,理想化地形潮汐模式系以台灣海峽為範本並模擬測站位置做為資料輸入點,在理想化地形模式結合資料統化系統於水位修正上有不錯的結果。
本研究將測試多種不同設定之簡易理想化地形潮汐模式作為水動力模式,研究目的主要是對模式系統增加資料同化系統,加以測試校驗比對以增加模式準確性,待簡易模式系統測試完成後,本研究將使用台灣海峽地形模式,測試本研究研發的資料同化系統對加入不同程度誤差的模式系統的修正效果,在利用資料同化修正後的模式結果配合調和分析修改模式輸入邊界用於預報。不同的誤差程度對本研究研發的資料同化系統來說修正及預報效果並無太大差異,主要影響資料同化的修正效果為輸入的實測資料。
Abstract
Computer technology is growing fast in recent years. Modeling technique is used in predicting or in planning engineering works and even in preventing disaster. Modeling is widely used in many domains and unmanned Real-time online operation modeling systems on prediction become popular. Model may become inaccurate due to a number of uncertainties in the approximation and by numerical reasons. Data Assimilation technique is developed to solve this problem. Measured data is used to improve the model results. In this research, the Cressman scheme was chosen as the data assimilation scheme and used for correcting the modeling system.

An idealized model was constructed first as Taiwan Strait. In order to test the stability if data assimilation system several geographical variations and data availability cases were designed, eg adding varying bottom topography, an island added in the domain, different measurement data locations. In order to test the model sensibilities an error was inserted to the boundaries. Model results were first corrected with data assimilation system for a period of time, a Harmonic Analysis was, then, used for reanalysis the corrected time series on the boundaries. The new boundary condition is used in the new model run for making predictions. A true topography and island system as Taiwan Strait was tested with the true astronomical tide as the boundary input.

The data assimilation system using the Cressman scheme could reduce the RMSE effectively. The factor that affects the efficiency of the data assimilation system is the number and the location of the measurement data.
目次 Table of Contents
摘 要 i
Abstract iii
目 錄 iii
表 次 vii
圖 次 viii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 文獻回顧 3
1.2.1 資料同化系統發展歷史 3
1.2.2 資料同化於海洋研究上的應用 3
1.2.3 Cressman法於各領域資料同化系統之應用 7
1.3研究方法 9
1.4 本文架構 10
第二章 水動力模式及分析方法 11
2.1 水動力模式原理及模式設定 11
2.1.1 基本控制方程式 11
2.1.2 模式建置 14
2.2 調和分析原理介紹 17
2.3 資料同化系統原理 19
2.4 資料同化系統修正設定 21
2.5 模式系統邊界修正及預報設定 22
第三章 理想化地形資料同化系統敏感度分析 23
3.1 理想化地形資料同化系統校驗分析 24
3.1.1 理想化地形資料同化系統數值設定 24
3.1.2 影響半徑R之影響分析及設置 26
3.1.3 理想化地形資料同化系統結果及修正結果 28
3.2 資料同化系統延伸測試 32
3.3 加入島嶼地形影響模式結果及資料同化測試 33
3.4 加入島嶼模式再加入底床地形 39
3.5 增加資料同化系統的實測資料輸入點 44
3.6 資料輸入點放置於台灣本島測試 50
第四章 模式預報及分析 56
4.1理想化地形模式用於預報測試校驗分析 57
4.2 加入島嶼地形之理想化地形模式之預報測試 64
4.3 理想化地形模式加入底床地形變化之預報測試 69
4.4 同化資料點位分佈於台灣本島之預報測 75
第五章 模式系統用台灣海峽案例測試 82
5.1 模式地形、網格及系統設定 82
5.2 台灣海峽地形模式經過資料同化系統修正之結果 87
5.3 資料同化模式系統預報分析 95
第六章 結果討論及未來研究之建議 103
6.1 結果討論 104
6.1.1 資料同化系統對模式的修正結果討論 104
6.1.2 模式經邊界修正後的預報結果討論 104
6.2 未來研究之建議 105
參考文獻 107
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