日俄能源合作作為俄羅斯和日本之間戰略利益趨同的基礎，已為兩國合作提供新的誘因。在此基礎上，第二任安倍政權和普京政權試圖擴大雙邊合作至安全與外交領域。然而，隨著烏克蘭危機的爆發日俄關係再一次面臨是否應該受制於美國因素的牽制或維持雙邊的和解步伐的戰略困境。截至目前為止，安倍-普京模式展現出高度的合作意願，在追求雙邊關係暖化的持續性和對美國干預的保留態度都有別於以往兩國領導人的友好關係。與二戰結束至今的幾次兩國關係暖化相比，安倍與普京奠基於能源合作的基礎並面臨快速變動的東亞局勢，為此時的日俄關係帶來新一輪暖化的契機。
戰後日俄關係的發展受制於千島群島爭端、冷戰格局的限制和雙邊關係的管理不當，其中美國是日俄關係停滯不前的關鍵因素。自1951年美國以三藩市和約取代雅爾達密約作為戰後結構的最終安排，千島群島爭端已成為俄日關係的主要障礙。透過創造國際法的模糊空間，藉由駐日美軍對蘇聯形成威攝並利用日本亟欲脫離美國站另的心態，美國成功阻止了日蘇關係的正常化。1960年新安保法的通過提升了千島群島的戰略價值，進而使兩國關係正常化更形困難。儘管「兩島歸還論」及「政經分離政策」先後被提出，兩國關係的根本阻礙並沒有得到解決。直到二戰結束70周年的今天，領土爭端依然存在，和平條約的簽署依然遙遙無期。
然而自2012年底開始，日本首相安倍晉三及俄羅斯總統普丁透過能源合作、首長會務及安全對話開啟了一條務實的合作之路。儘管烏克蘭危機的爆發為兩國關係暖化帶來變數，新的合作面向將讓安倍-普丁模式較以往的兩國關係具有繼高可持續性。作為日俄關係中的主要自變數，美國在管理兩國關係上具備戰略主動性，不論是領土爭端、美俄/蘇關係的摩擦及美日同盟作為政策工具都可用以阻饒日俄/蘇關係的持續暖化。本文探討美國在不同時期如何掌握戰略際遇管控日俄/蘇關係的，並分析安倍-普丁模式的特殊性及其對美國霸權的意涵。

The Russo-Japanese Energy Cooperation serves as the foundation of the growing convergence of strategic interests between Russia and Japan. Based on this foundation the two countries have expanded the mutual cooperation areas from economic to security as the second Abe administration and the Putin regime moved closer to strengthen the bilateral tie. Given the outbreak of the Ukraine Crisis Russo-Japanese relations once again come to a crossroad of subordinated to the U.S. strategic restraints or keeping its own pace of reconciliation. The persistence in pursuing a dynamic bilateral contacts and the reservation in being fully affiliated to the U.S. hegemony have made the current Abe-Putin rapprochement different from their predecessors who were restrained by the internal and external factors resulted from the dominance of the U.S. in their respective strategic planning.
The postwar Russo-Japanese relation was restrained by the Kurile Islands Dispute, Cold War structure and the mismanagement of the bilateral relationship, among which the United States is the key factor of a stalemated Russo-Japanese relation. Since 1951 when the U.S. replaced the Yalta agreement with the San Francisco Peace Treaty as the final arrangement of the postwar structure the Kurile Islands Dispute has become the main obstacle of Russo-Japanese relation. By creating ambiguity in international laws, deterring USSR with U.S. forces in Japan and utilizing Japan’s wish for an early-end U.S. occupation Washington successfully obstructed the normalization of Soviet-Japanese relation. The 1960 Mutual Security Treaty further promoted the strategic value of the disputed islands and made the development of the bilateral relation more difficult. Despite the proposals of “Seikei Bunri” and “Two-Islands First” the fundamental change is still inaccessible. Until today the 70th anniversary of the end of WW2 the territorial dispute remains and the peace treaty is still in a distant future.
Nevertheless since 2012 the second term of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin have demonstrated a new pragmatic approach consisted with deepening the energy cooperation, persistent sates heads meetings and the attempt to open up bilateral security dialogue. All the efforts would distinguish the “Abe-Putin Model” from all the past Russo-Japanese rapprochements despite the sourness brought by the U.S.-led sanctions against Russia. Being the independent variable of Soviet/Russo-Japanese relation the U.S. holds the strategic initiative in creating, maintaining and complicating the bilateral tie by using the Kurile Islands Dispute, the Soviet/Russo-U.S. frictions and the U.S.-Japan Alliance as policy tools to penetrate the attempts of Soviet/Russo-Japanese rapprochements. This article analyses the way the U.S. upholds the initiative in the development of Soviet/Russo-Japanese relation throughout different decisive historical junctures and discussed the uniqueness of the ongoing “Abe-Putin Model” and its implications to the U.S. hegemony in Northeast Asia.

List of Content

論文審定書 i
致謝 ii
中文摘要 iii
Abstract iv
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1 Issue Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 7
1.3 Research Hypothesis 8
1.4 Research Methods 8
1.5 Research Limitation 8
1.5.1 Time Limitation 9
1.5.2 Language Limitation 9
Chapter 2: Literature Review 10
2.1 Foundation and Structure of the U.S. Hegemony 10
2.2 The Interdependence between U.S. Hegemony and Japan 18
2.3 Challenges and Limitations of the U.S. Hegemony 25
2.4 Conclusion 30
Chapter 3: Russo-Japanese Rapprochements in the Legacy of the Postwar System 37
3.1 The San Francisco System and the Territorial Dispute 39
3.2 The Mutual Security Treaty and the Stagnation in Cold War 49
3.3 The End of Cold War and the Lost Decade 53
3.4 The Resurgence of Russia and a Realistic Approach 61
3.5 Conclusion 73
Chapter 4 Russo-Japanese Energy Cooperation as a Pragmatically Innovative Approach 79
4.1 The Complementary Nature for Energy Cooperation 81
4.1.1 Russia as the Source of Japan’s Energy Diversification 81
4.1.2 Japan as the Terminal Point of Russia’s Eastward Policy 96
4.2 The Seikei Bunri Characteristics of the Energy Cooperation 108
4.2.1 The ESPO Project 110
4.2.2 The Sakhalin 2 Project 111
4.3 The Spillover of Energy Cooperation and its Implication for the U.S. 116
4.4 Conclusion 132
Chapter 5: Conclusion 137
Bibliography 147

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Book Chapters

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Journal Articles

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