為了解析海域生態系之變動架構，能以量化的方式釐清生態系中自然變動與人為干擾對生物之相對影響程度，本論文以浮游植物為目標生物，利用主成分分析-結構方程模式(Principal component analysis - Structural Equation Modeling, PCA-SEM)的方式，解析了台灣附近的三個海域。先以PCA針對水質資料進行環境變動因素之探索性分析，再配合生物數據進行生態系概念模式的擬定，之後再以結構方程模式進行驗證。研究選定「彰化沿岸海域」、「高雄港海拋區海域」及「高雄南星計畫海域」等三個研究地點，分別代表台灣西部沿海生態系、大洋生態系、及眾多人為干擾的海域生態系。在「彰化沿岸海域」的研究中發現了河川注入及季節變動為影響該海域浮游植物的主要因素。「高雄港海拋區海域」的研究則顯現季節性溫度改變是影響浮游植物變動的首要因素，源自於海拋，隨著懸浮微粒出現之溶解性有機質，則是影響浮游植物變動的次要的因素。「高雄南星計畫海域」的研究則指向大林電廠抽取高雄港污染的海水，做為冷卻機組用水後，排放至本海域所導致營養鹽及重金屬的變動，以及油污染因素，是影響本海域生態系變動的重要人為干擾項目。
整體而言，三個海域模式的適配度良好，與環境中之狀況吻合，反應以PCA- SEM為主的分析方式，可有效並首次解析出了台灣附近海域不同的生態系變動架構，而此一研究方法也適用於其他生物(例如底棲生物、魚類等)的模式建構，以及在環境影響評估上的應用。

In order to understand the relative impact from natural and anthropogenic sources, Principal Component Analysis - Structural Equation Modeling (PCA-SEM) was used to analyze the phytoplankton dynamics in coastal waters of Taiwan. PCA was used to analyze the changes of the water quality, followed by constructing of conceptual model which incorporated with biological data, and finally verified by SEM. Three study sites were selected: Chang Hua coastal waters, Kaohsiung mud dumping waters and the adjacent waters of Kaohsiung Nansing project. These sites represent the ordinary coastal water ecosystem of western Taiwan, off-shore ocean with one defined pollution sources, and anthropogenic impacted water area, respectively. The results showed that in Chang Hua coastal waters, river input and seasonal change were the primary factors effecting phytoplankton change. Water temperature was the main reason of phytoplankton changes, followed by the influence of dissolved organic matter in Kaohsiung mud dumping site. Whereas waters near Kaohsiung Nansing project, cooling water from Daling power plant coupled with the change of nutrients and heavy metal concentrations, as well as oil pollution, were the major causes of phytoplankton variation. The goodness-of-fits were good for the three models in this study, revealing that PCA- SEM is suitable to analyze the environmental changes of the costal waters of Taiwan. Logistic methods used in this study are also good for the study of benthic or fish community, and are suitable to apply on environmental impact assessments.

論文審定書……………………………………………i
誌謝……………………………………………………ii
中文摘要………………………………………………iii
英文摘要………………………………………………iv
第一章 緒論……………………………………………1
1.1研究動機及目的……………………………………1
1.2研究方法與架構……………………………………3
第二章 沿岸河口生態系變動架構之解析-以彰化沿海為例………………………………………………………19
2.1前言…………………………………………………19
2.2研究方法……………………………………………20
2.2.1資料來源…………………………………………20
2.2.2研究地點…………………………………………20
2.2.3分析方法…………………………………………21
2.2.3.1概念模式………………………………………21
2.3結果…………………………………………………22
2.4討論…………………………………………………27
第 三 章 大洋生態系變動架構之解析-以高雄港淤泥海拋區為例…………………………………………………51
3.1前言…………………………………………………51
3.2研究方法……………………………………………52
3.2.1資料來源…………………………………………52
3.2.2研究地點…………………………………………52
3.2.3分析方法…………………………………………53
3.2.3.1概念模式1……………………………………53
3.2.3.2概念模式2………………………………………54
3.3結果…………………………………………………55
3.4討論…………………………………………………60
第 四 章 眾多人為干擾海域生態系變動架構之解析-以高雄南星計畫海域為例……………………………………84
4.1前言…………………………………………………84
4.2研究方法……………………………………………86
4.2.1資料來源…………………………………………86
4.2.2研究地點…………………………………………86
4.2.3分析方法…………………………………………87
4.2.3.1概念模式1……………………………………87
4.2.3.2概念模式2……………………………………87
4.3結果………………………………………………88
4.3.1高雄港海域……………………………………88
4.3.2南星計畫海域…………………………………89
4.4討論………………………………………………96
第五章 綜合討論……………………………………128
5.1三個模式之比較及探討…………………………128
5.1.1模式適配度比較………………………………128
5.1.2模式合理性探討………………………………129
5.1.3模式複雜度……………………………………130
5.1.4三個模式在生態學上之特殊發現……………131
5.1.4.1生態系變動架構及人為干擾與自然變動的量化……………………………………………………131
5.1.4.2多個環境因素對水質變數的加成影響……132
5.1.4.3直接影響及間接影響………………………132
5.1.4.4交互作用的影響……………………………133
5.1.4.5以少數參數即可偵測到生態系細微的變動134
5.1.4.6污染事件的影響及環保措施的成效………135
5.1.5小結……………………………………………135
5.2 PCA-SEM應用於海域生態研究之探討………136
5.3 PCA-SEM在海域生態環境影響評估的應用…140
5.3.1國內海洋生態評估的制度與現況……………140
5.3.2結構方程模式的特性…………………………141
5.3.3海洋生態評估方式之建議……………………142
5.4總結………………………………………………144

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