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博碩士論文 etd-0104112-222614 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0104112-222614
論文名稱
Title
中西太平洋主要漁業國家之長期鮪魚漁獲結構性改變探討
A Structured Breaks Investigation of Tuna Catches in the Western-Central Pacific Ocean
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
33
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2011-06-27
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2012-01-04
關鍵字
Keywords
漁業管理、結構性改變、單根檢定、鮪魚、中西太平洋漁業委員會
Structural breaks, Fishery management, WCPFC, Tuna, Unit root tests
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5765 次,被下載 833
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5765 times, has been downloaded 833 times.
中文摘要
在早期的人類社會中,所有的自然資源都被認為是全人類的共同資產與珍寶,例如農漁林牧。而其中一種面臨到過度發展威脅的就是高度洄游性魚類,這類的魚種因為具有廣域的生活棲地與洄游模式,使得無法透過單一國家進行整體的資源保護,其中最廣為人知的就是鮪魚。而當要探討漁業管理時,我們就必須從中西太平洋漁業委員會其中十三個國家的歷年漁獲變化量出發,並回顧過去的漁業政策與歷史事件。主要參考在經濟學門中用以檢定隨機收斂以及定位結構性改變點的研究方法,其重要性在於分析序列中的外部性衝擊與內生性影響。本論文的特點在於依循傳統的以及考慮結構性改變的單根檢定方法,並同時進行時間序列(time-series)以及橫縱序列(panel)資料的分析。透過這種方法我們可以對漁獲量序列進行初步評估,從結構性改變點探究此時期發生的歷史事件,並且若在單根檢定的過程中考慮這些結構性改變點,整體序列的成長也將呈現恆定的狀態;換句話說,若這些事件衝擊對於漁獲量的改變只有短暫的效果,則序列最終還是會具有隨機收斂的特性。這意味著管理者不需要過度干預鮪魚漁業的發展,因為這些短暫的衝擊並不會對整體的鮪魚漁獲量造成不可回復的影響。因此,政府或管理者其實不需要因為短期的漁獲量改變,而立刻改變漁業政策或制定更嚴格的法規來因應。他們首先應該要先了解檢定穩定序列的意義,而不是基於短暫的衝擊而過度干預鮪魚漁業的自由發展。
Abstract
In the early years of human society, all natural resources such as agriculture, animals, forestry, and fisheries were considered to be public property and the treasure belonged to all people. One branch of these natural resources threatened by over-development is straddling and highly migratory fish species, like tuna, which cannot be protected by a single government. While discussing fishery management, we review the change in tuna catches of thirteen countries in Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC), as it represents the impacts from different policies and events during a specific period of time. We reference the method applied in economics science by testing for the existence of stochastic convergence and addressing these break points, which are the important targets due to external shocks or internal influence. The characteristic of the method is in testing both time series and panel data by following the traditional unit root tests methods and unit root tests while considering structural breaks. We are able to conclude in preliminary estimates that some serious historical fishery events happened at the break point time, and if we take these structural breaks into consideration, then the growth of tuna catches will be stationary. In other words, if shocks to relative tuna catches are temporary, then the series stochastically converges, meaning that the manager does not need to intervene in the development of tuna fishery, because temporary shocks do not affect the stationarity of tuna catches’ levels. Once the structural breaks occurred in the past, it is not necessary for these government and international organizations to change fishery policies in order to respond to the breaks. They should realize the meaning of the stationary panel instead of enacting an over-intervening policy based on temporary shocks.
目次 Table of Contents
摘要 …….……………………………………………………………………. i
Abstract …….……………………………………………………………….. ii
1. Introduction …………………………………………………………….. 1
2. The methods …………………………………………………………….. 5
2.1 The traditional unit root test without structural breaks ……………. 5
2.2 The time series and panel unit root tests with structural breaks …….. 7
3. Empirical results ………………………………………………………… 10
3.1 Data and Variables ………………………………………………….. 10
3.2 Results of traditional unit root tests without breaks …….................... 11
3.3 Results of time series and panel unit root tests with breaks …........... 11
4. Conclusions ……………………………………………………………… 17
5. Figures and Tables ……………………………………………………….. 19
References …………………………………………………………………... 25
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