透過蔣經國的領導進而執行了一系列的改革，而這一系列的改革最終為台灣在實現民主化鋪平了道路。本文使用了前瞻性理論來評估這些改革成果呈現出國民黨政權因此動作所帶出來的風險，以及蔣經國當他決定實施這些改革時伴隨的風險傾向。研究發現，蔣經國最初的改革是以循序漸進的方式，是在一個可控制和排除風險的方式來做實施，在民主近程上所出來的結果以及和在國內外的環境條件下，評估以上種種，這樣的改革過程是成功的。然而在1980年代中期，由於蔣經國的健康狀況每況愈下，加上國內民主化快速的成長以及外部國際壓力的倍增，這些加諸在蔣經國身上的壓力讓他感覺到前所未有的急迫感，他變得必須放手一搏並且加快時程，加速的進行必要且必需的改革。
關鍵詞: 蔣經國, 前瞻性理論, 台灣

Over the course of his leadership Chiang Ching-kuo implemented a series of reforms that paved the way for Taiwan’s eventual democratization. This paper utilizes prospect theory to assess the risks these reforms presented to the KMT regime and Chiang Ching-kuo’s risk propensity when he decided to implement them. It finds that Chiang’s initial reforms were implemented in a gradual, controlled and risk averse way, the result of domestic and international conditions that allowed for such a strategy. In the mid 1980s, as Chiang’s failing health and growing domestic and international pressures put Chiang into a frame of losses, he became more risk acceptant and implemented higher-risk reforms.

Table of Contents
Thesis Validation Letter…………………………………………………………………….i
Acknowledgments…………………………………………………………………………....ii
English Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………iii
Chinese Abstract…………………………………………………………………………....…iv
Table of Contents…………………………………………………………………………...…v
Table of Tables…………………………………………………………………………….......vii
Chapter 1: Introduction………………………………………………………….........…1
1.1 Background……………………………………………………………......…....1
1.2 Research Objectives……………………………………………………..........…..2
1.3 Research Questions…………………………………………………..........……...4
1.4 Note on Names and Spelling……………………………………...........…….4
Chapter 2: Prospect Theory………………………………………………………….…...5
2.1 Key Findings……………………………………………………………….............…....6
2.2 Literature Review: Prospect Theory……………....…………….…………...8
2.3 Literature Review: Taiwan’s Democratization………………………….19
Chapter 3: Background……………………………………………………………….…….22
3.1 Chiang Ching-kuo and the KMT before Taiwan……………………….23
3.2 Society Relations on Taiwan…………………………………………….….…....27
3.3 KMT and the One-China Principle…………………………………….….…….29
3.4 KMT and Democracy on Taiwan…………………………………………..…….30
3.5 Chiang Ching-kuo and the White Terror…………………………….……….33
3.6 KMT and the United States……………………………………………......……….34
Chapter 4: Methodology………………………………………………………...……………37
4.1 Scope and Limitations…………………………………………….…………….38
4.2 Definitions……………………………………………………………….........……...39
4.3 Periodization………………………………………………………........……………41
Chapter 5: Analysis…………………………………………………………......………………43
5.1 The Reforms…………………………………………………….......……………....43
5.2 Frame Prior to Leadership………………………….………………………...45
5.3 Phase One: 1972-1976……………………………………….………………….51
5.3(a) Phase One: International Setting and Events…..…………...52
5.3(b) Phase One: Domestic Setting and Events……….…………....56
5.3(c) Phase One: Frame…………………………………………………….……....59
5.3(d) Phase One: Policies………………………………………….……………….64
5.3(e) Phase One: Analysis………………………………………………………....67
5.4 Phase Two: 1977-1983………………………………………….……………….71
5.4(a) Phase Two: International Setting and Events………………...71
5.4(b) Phase Two: Domestic Setting and Events…………….……....76
5.4(c) Phase Two: Frame……………………………………………………..………78
5.4(d) Phase Two: Policies…………………………………………………………..84
5.4(e) Phase Two: Analysis………………………………………………………….86
5.5 Phase Three: 1983-1988…………………………………………………………89
5.5(a) Phase Three: Domestic Setting and Events……….…………..89
5.5(b) Phase Three: International Setting and Events…………..….92
5.5(c) Phase Three: Frame…………………………………………………………...94
5.5(d) Phase Three: Policies…………………………………………………….....98
5.5(e) Phase Three: Analysis………………………………………………...……101
Chapter 6: Conclusion……………………………………………………………………......105
References……………………………………………………………………………........……….108

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