在近年來管理思潮的巨浪下，現今公司經營者除擁有較過去來得豐富的管理知識，也更著重於如何落實所學，以確實提升公司的經營績效，增強公司競爭力。然回顧過去有關公司策略的相關文獻，發現大多環繞在經營績效與公司策略間的關係，卻顯少探討公司策略與經營環境間之關係，也未曾就策略管理教科書中提及的機會(opportunities)及威脅(threats)在實際經營上如何衡量及判斷有進一步的探討，只變成一個模糊的概念，形成學術界與實務界間的一道鴻溝，這些都有待進一步探討與建構。

本文主要研究目的為擴充Ackoff (1970)之模型以描述三者間的互動關係，並以國泰金控為例，以現代計量方法配合三步驟兩方程式組來探討三者間之互動關係，並據此間接衡量出經營環境變化對經營績效之影響－即判定影響經營績效的主要環境因素，並據此衡量環境中所存在的機會與威脅。本文主要結論如下：

1.就兩步驟三方程組而言，調整後股東權益報酬率、調整後營業費用比及Tobin’s Q等三績效變數，與產品多樣化、員工人數及呆帳提存率等三策略變數，及債券投資比例、股票投資比例及不動產投資比例等三策略變數間彼此互相影響。

2.就長期而言，若以永久乘數效果來衡量策略變數對績效變數之影響，則：

(1).多元化獲利來源長期而言會使調整後股東權益報酬率、調整後營業費用比及Tobin’s Q上升，可見公司近年來積極推廣財富管理業務以增加手續費收入以及多元化獲利來源之經營方向雖未能達節省成本之目的，但卻可透過交叉行銷來提升獲利，故提供全方位產品反而有助於績效之提升，且該公司若欲降低某一項業務之獲利於以提升經營績效，則以降低保險業務效果最佳，亦即在多角化能對該公司帶來正面效益之情形下，整頓公司資源並分散於各項業務可迅速提升公司績效。此外，投資人也會對該公司多元化獲利來源之經營策略給予肯定而對股價持較正面之評價，故Tobin’s Q增加。

(2).員工人數增加不會影響所有經營績效，表增加員工人數無助於金融商品之行銷及成本之節省。究其可能的原因有二：其一是員工專業知識不足，則
唯有透過員工教育訓練提升專業知識，以利迅速達到銷售目的與效率，始能強化行銷通路，提升經營績效；其二，科技進步使得網路及電話行銷盛行，降低了對傳統行銷通路之依賴。

(3).提高呆帳提存率會使經營者在承受壓力下經營態度轉趨保守，對於資源的分配，如授信業務等趨於嚴格及謹慎，並致力於成本節省，故投資人也會對該公司股價持較正面之評價，所以Tobin’s Q是增加的。帳提存率增加會使股東權益降低、營業費用比增加及每股淨值成長率下降，表提高呆帳提存率除對當期獲利有相當的影響，因也使得經營者在承受壓力下經營態度轉趨保守，可能因此錯過一些良好的投資機會，反而損及股東權益，致未能達到資本效率化之目的。

(4).債券投資比例上升會使所有經營績效變差，表示債券投資獲利增加之速度趕不上營業費用之增加，可見該公司資產配置之內容及比率仍有進一步改善的空間，否則資本效率性將會受到影響；此外，當債券投資比例增加時，通常是股票市場行情不佳時，故投資人也會對該公司股價持較負面的評價，故Tobin’s Q是下降的。

(5).不動產投資比例增加會使所有經營績效變好，此與一般人認為該公司善長不動產投資之印象一致；此外，當不動產投資比例增加時，通常是股票市場行情不錯時，故投資人也會對該公司股價持較正面之評價，故Tobin’s Q是增加的。

3.若以永久乘數效果來衡量環境變數對績效變數之影響，環境變數工業與服務業每人每月加班工時變動率、機電設備進口值變動率、海關出口值變動率、非農業部門就業人數變動率、失業率下跌或M1B變動率、製造業銷售值變動率上升都會使會計面經營績效變好，而這些環境變數多與一般民眾就業狀況或收入之好壞有關，此也與該公司本業主要獲利來源為個人保單銷售、消費金融業務等之現況相當一致；此外，除失業率下降外，並無其它環境變數可同時使所有績效變數變好，故顯示出公司多重績效指標間之不一致性，且失業率也是所有環境變數中影響所有績效變數最重要的一個，表視該公司經營者必需能儘量掌握失業率之變化，適時擬定因應對策。

In recent years, corporate strategy has drawn a lot of attention in the academic an practice. However, there are fewer literatures on how to put these ideas into practice, that is, how to quantify the interrelationships between the three key elements in strategic management－performance, strategies, and environments, and how to judge and measure the opportunities and threats (O & T) when the environments change. This study is an attempt to answer these questions.

The theoretical method developed incorporates a dynamic simultaneous equations model to express the interrelationship between these three elements. The method requires the identification of O & T in a three-step procedure. Step 1 relates the strategic components to the performance measures by the management’s concept of business and philosophy of resource depolyment. Step 2 points out the suitable (unsuitable) environment circumstances for each of the scope and resource deployment elements. In Step 3, we link the results of Step 1 and Step 2 to identify and measure O & T.

The above methodology is applied to the case of Cathy Financial Holding Company, a Taiwan largest listed financial holding company, over the period 2002Q2-2007Q3. We use the Instrument Variables Three Stage Least Square Method (IV-3SLS) to estimate them. In addition, we also use some tests to ascertain the validity of the selected instrument variables in order to obtain the more reliable results. Our empirical results indicate that both the firm strategies and the environments play significant roles in influencing the firm’s performance. More specifically, whereas the diversification of products, and the debt allowance reservation rate are negatively associated with the cost/income ratio and positively associated with adjusted ROE and Tobin’s Q. Additionally, the managers also can increase the investment efficiency by adjusting the content of the asset allocation, especially with regard to the holding of bonds. We also extract some major environment factors such as unemployment rate that affect the firm’s performance and use the estimated results to identify and measure O & T.

第一章緒論 1
1.1研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究架構 1
1.3 研究流程 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
2.1經營環境－策略－績效相關文獻 4
2.1.1環境因素 5
2.1.2 公司策略 6
2.1.3經營績效 8
2.1.4 環境－策略－績效間之互動關係 9
2.2金融控股公司相關文獻 11
2.2.1國外文獻 11
2.2.2國內文獻 12
第三章 實證模型及方法 15
3.1 實證模型 15
3.1.1 模型架構 15
3.1.2模型函數形式 17
3.1.3 乘數效果 18
3.1.4 機會與威脅之判定 19
3.2 實證方法 20
3.2.1一般動差法 21
3.2.2兩階段及三階段最小平方法 25
3.2.3過度認定檢定 25
3.2.4個別工具變數有效性檢定 26
第四章 實證結果 27
4.1樣本公司介紹 27
4.2 變數選取 29
4.2.1.績效變數之選取 29
4.2.2策略變數之認定 30
4.2.3環境變數的認定 32
4.2.4資料來源 35
4.3 單根檢定 36
4.4第一階段工具變數迴歸結果 38
4.5工具變數有效性檢定 40
4.6 估計結果 41
4.7 系統動態穩定性及乘數效果 46
4.8第三步驟乘數效果 50
4.9機會與威脅之判定 51
第五章 結論與建議 54
5.1 結論與建議 54
5.2 未來研究方向 55
參考文獻 57

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