複雜的外交情勢與各方幕後的運籌，為台灣的外交政策造成了攸關成敗的影響。爲了深刻領會與充份地和正確地解釋外交政策的結果，本論文將于利用四個層次的分析 － 國際體系、國家政府、社會、和個人，系統性地深入分析其内外部的影響因素。本論文主張，台灣在南斯拉夫地區的外交承諾中，中國因素扮演了最為關鍵性的外在影響。面對中國在國際上的孤立及國際體系拒絕承認其政府合法性的困境下，台灣轉而尋求非正式的外交途徑來增進其國家利益。一九九九年一月臺灣與馬其頓在外交上的突破，表露了臺灣對前南斯拉夫地區外交攻勢與其策略方式。爲了與後南斯拉夫國家成立密切的外交關係或最起碼為半官方實質性的關係；臺北政府在多樣化的外交策略之中，最倚重的是經濟外交（貿易與援助）。儘管台灣與馬其頓僅維持了短暫的建交關係，顯現與後南斯拉夫國家的外交關係上的挫敗，但卻不表示其總體外交上的失敗。

Taiwan's complex informal diplomatic practices and the forces behind them have brought both successes and failures in Taiwan's relations with former Yugoslavia and its successor states. In order to better comprehend and adequately explain the foreign policy outputs, the study has systematically examined external and internal influences that have shaped Taipei's foreign policy by employing four basic levels of analysis – the system, the state, the societal and the individual level. The study has argued that while both, internal and external factors have shaped Taiwan's relations, the China factor in particular has posed the major source of external systemic influence that has affected Taiwan's diplomatic endeavors in the post-Yugoslav region. To circumvent the China-imposed international isolation and the system that refuses to recognize its legitimacy, Taiwan has utilized informal diplomacy to advance its national interests. Although systemic level may best explain Taiwan's diplomatic behavior, governmental, societal and individual levels also present relevant dimensions of explanation. Taiwan's diplomatic offensive and the pattern of its approaches towards the former Yugoslav region in general, have caught public attention upon Taiwan's diplomatic breakthrough with Macedonia in January 1999. The study has revealed that among the multi-track diplomatic strategies it employed in its foreign policy, Taipei mainly resorted to economic diplomacy, primarily in the form of trade as well as in the form of economic aid in order to establish closer – preferably diplomatic or, at least, semi-official ‘substantive’ – relations with the post-Yugoslav nations. Despite its short triumph with Macedonia, Taiwanese diplomacy failed to accomplish its objectives in post-Yugoslav states. Nevertheless, saying that does not imply that it has been unsuccessful.

Approval Page i
Acknowledgments ii
Abstract iii
Table of Contents v
List of Figures, Maps and Tables vii
List of Acronyms viii

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 2
CHAPTER ARRANGEMENT AND
METHODOLOGY 10
EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION 15
REVIEW OF RELEVANT LITERATURE 16

CHAPTER TWO: DIPLOMACY 20

DEFINING DIPLOMACY 20
ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY 26
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 28
EVOLUTION OF TAIWAN'S DIPLOMACY 30

CHAPTER THREE: FACTORS AFFECTING
TAIWAN'S DIPLOMACY 42

THE CHANGING INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM 42
THE CHINA FACTOR 44
THE UNITED STATES FACTOR 52
GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE 56
SOCIETAL FORCES 58
INDIVIDUAL FACTORS 62

CHAPTER FOUR: CASE STUDY: YUGOSLAVIA 70

BRIEF HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF
YUGOSLAVIA'S DISSOLUTION 70

SECTION I: HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF YUGOSLAVIA'S RELATIONS WITH TAIWAN 80
PERIOD 1949-1979: HOSTILITY 80
PERIOD 1979-1991: PAVING THE WAY
TOWARD SUBSTANTIVE RELATIONS 82
PERIOD 1991-PRESENT: GRASPING THE
NEW OPPORTUNITIES 95

SECTION II: POST-YUGOSLAV REPUBLICS AND TAIWAN 99
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA
(THE STATE UNION OF SERBIA AND
MONTENEGRO) 99
THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND THE
KOSOVO ISSUE 108
THE REPUBLIC OF MONTENEGRO 115
THE REPUBLIC OF BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA 117
THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA 119
THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA 123
THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA 133

CHAPTER FIVE: FOUR-LEVEL-ANALYSIS EXPLANATION OF TAIWAN'S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS FORMER YUGOSLAVIA AND ITS SUCCESSOR STATES 143

THE SYSTEM LEVEL ANALYSIS 143
THE STATE LEVEL ANALYSIS 149
THE SOCIETAL LEVEL OF ANALYSIS 154
THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL OF ANALYSIS 157
SUMMARY 162

CHAPTER SIX: ASSESSING TAIWAN'S
DIPLOMACY 169

THE EFFICACY AND THE PATTERN OF TAIWAN'S DIPLOMACY TOWARDS FORMER YUGOSLAVIA AND ITS SUCCESSOR STATES 169

CHAPTER SEVEN: CONCLUDING REMARKS 184

APPENDICES: JOINT COMMUNIQUÉS 188

BIBLIOGRAPHY 207

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Zimmermann, Warren, Origins of a Catastrophe, (New York: Times Books, 1996).

Zoellick, Robert B, “From the Shanghai Communiqué to Global Stakeholders,” remarks at the Barnett-Oksenberg lecture on Sino-American relations, (Shanghai, March 21, 2007), http://shenyang.usembassychina.org.cn/ oksenberg_lecture.html.





BOOKS AND ARTICLES IN CHINESE LANGUAGE


尹慶耀,“南斯拉夫的今昔” (Yugoslavia’s Past and Present), 共黨問題研究, 第18卷第11期 (1992/11): 頁38-47 。

———,“迪托生前死後”(Before and After the Death of Tito), 問題與研究, 第19卷第9期 (1980/06): 頁19-30 。

王凌皋,“從南斯拉夫聯盟內部民族問題論孫中山民族主義的時代意義”(Discussing the Epochal Significance of the Sun Yat-sen’s Nationalism through the Yugoslav Federation’s Ethnical Problem), 黃埔學報38 (1999/12): 147-162 。

王慶輝,“南斯拉夫經濟體系文集”(Collected Works on Yugoslav Economical System), 三民主義學報 (師大) , 第4卷 (1980/06): 頁212-218 。

外貿協會, 1991-1992海外市場經貿年報, (臺北: 外貿協會, 1992) 。

———, 1992-1993海外市場經貿年報, (臺北: 外貿協會, 1993) 。

左婭和李芳華, “中東歐國家與臺灣的關係”(Relations Between East Central Europe and Taiwan), 盧曉衡主編, 中國對外關係中的臺灣問題 (Taiwan Issue in China’s Foreign Relations), (臺北: 中國社會科學學院, 2003) 。

任遠, “前南斯拉夫各民族的歷史仇怨”(Historical Enmities of Individual Former Yugoslav Nations), 歷史月刊, 第89卷 (1995/06): 頁102-113 。

曲兆祥,“美國對南斯拉夫戰爭的政策”(American Policy toward Yugoslav War), 美國月刊, 第7卷第9期 (1992/09): 頁32-39 。

吳萬寶,“維持和平: 歐安組織與北約的競爭抑或分工?”(Peacekeeping: Competition or Distribution of Works between the OSCE and NATO?), 研究與動態, 第14卷 (2006/07): 頁59-88 。

李瓊莉,“美國出兵波士尼亞與其府會戰爭權之爭”(Who Has the Power of War?--A Case Analysis of the U. S. Mission in Bosnia), 美歐月刊, 第11卷第2期 (1996/02): 頁33-44 。

杜子信,“南斯拉夫內戰之探討”(Investigation into Yugoslav Civil War), 俄情雜誌, 第6卷第2期 (1997/04): 頁50-73 。

林文程,“中共在聯合國安全理事會的投票行為分析(1971-2005年)”(China’s Voting Behavior in the UN Security Council), 問題與研, 第45卷第3期 (2006): 頁1-38 。

林永樂,“波士尼亞[Bosnia]危機處理與柯林頓政府之外交決策”(The Bosnia Crisis Management and the Clinton Administration Foreign Policy Decision Making), 美國月刊, 第8卷第8期 (1993/08): 頁49-55 。

林郁方,“美國調停南斯拉夫內爭的動機與限制”(Motivations and Limitations of the United States’ Settlement of the Yugoslav Civil War), 美國月刊, 第6卷第8期 (1991/08): 頁71-75 。

林貴貞,“南斯拉夫的經貿概況及外人投資”(Trade and Economic Situation of Yugoslavia and its Foreign Investment), 臺灣經濟金融月刊, 第25卷第7期 (1989/07): 頁31-36 。

林碧炤，“國際政治與外交政策”(International Politics and Foreign Policy)（臺北：五南圖書出版公司，1999）。

柯恆著和楊連仲譯,“南斯拉夫為何分裂?”(Why did Yugoslavia Brake up?) 國防譯粹月刊, 第20卷第10期 (1993/10): 頁21-30 。

洪茂雄, 南斯拉夫史─巴爾幹國家的合與分 (Yugoslavia’s History–Unity and Division of the Balkan Countries), (臺北: 三民書局出版, 2005) 。

———, 後共產主義時代東歐國家政經發展之硏究: 巴爾幹國家篇 (A Study of Political and Economic Development of Eastern European Countries: The Balkan Countries), (臺北: 行政院國科會科資中心, 1998) 。

———,“前南斯拉夫分裂後的巴爾幹政局”(Balkan’s Political Situation in the Aftermath of Yugoslavia’s Dissolution), 歷史月刊, 第136卷 (1999/05): 頁51-59 。
———,“南斯拉夫之分裂與未來動向”(Dissolution of Yugoslavia and its Future Trend), 問題與研究, 第31卷第1期 (1992/01) 。

———,“南斯拉夫走入歷史的意義和啟示”(Yugoslavia Entering History: Significance and Revelation), 新世紀智庫論壇, 第21卷 (2003/03): 頁115-117 。

———,“後共產主義時期克羅地亞的政經發展情勢”(Croatia’s Political and Economic Development in the Post-Communist Era), 問題與研究, 第39卷第7期 (2000/07) 。

———, 後共產主義時期南斯拉夫聯盟共和國的政經情勢”(The Political and Economic Position of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the Post-Communist Era), 中山人文社會科學期刊, 第7卷第1期 (1999/09): 頁49-72 。

———,“後共產主義時期馬其頓的政經發展情勢”(Macedonia’s Political and Economic Development in the Post-Communist Era), 問題與研究, 第38卷第5期 (1999/05): 頁1-15 。

———,“馬其頓的獨立和加入聯合國問題”(Macedonia’s Independence and the Question of the Entry to the UN), 問題與研究, 第32卷第6期 (1993/06): 1-10 。

———,“試析當前南斯拉夫的政治和經濟危機”(An Analysis of Present Political and Economic Crisis of Yugoslavia), 問題與研究, 第28卷第3期 (1988/12): 頁43-53 。

胡祖慶, “科索伏民族主義問題解析”(Kosovo: A Case Study of Ethnic Conflict), 東海學報, 第39卷第5期 (1998/07): 頁21-28 。

高尚杲, 中共對外關係之發展 (The Development of Chinese Communist Foreign Relations), (臺北: 正中, 1978) 。

高放,“大民族主义是南斯拉夫分崩离析的重要内因－我对米洛舍维奇的盖棺之论”(Grand Nationalism is an Important Internal Cause of Yugoslavia’s Disintegration), 探索 , 2006卷第6期 (2006/12): 頁57-64 。

———, 中華民國外交關係之演變 (1972-1992), (An Evolution of Foreign Relations of the Republic of China, 1972-1992), (臺北: 五南, 1994) 。

高朗, 中華民國外交關係之演變 (1950-1972) (An Evolution of Foreign Relations of the Republic of China, 1950-1972), (臺北: 五南, 1993) 。

張桂越, 遠離臺灣, 全民大講堂, 2007年十月七日, (臺北: 沙鷗多媒體, 2007) 。

———, 追獵藍色巴爾幹 (Chasing Blue Balkan), (臺北: 網路與書出版, 2007) 。

畢英賢,“迪托與南斯拉夫”(Tito and Yugoslavia),問題與研究, 第19卷第6期 (1980/03): 頁58-67 。

畢英賢和趙春山,東歐國情分析與我國對外關係 (Analysis of East European National Characteristics and the ROC's Foreign Policy),(臺北: 行政院 研究發展考核委員會, 1989) 。

習沛祺,“由塞爾維亞人(Serbs)民族主義的發展歷程來看科索夫(Kosovo)境內之族裔紛爭”(The Ethnic Conflicts in Kosovo: A Study in the Progress of the Nationalism of Serbs), 史學研究, 第14卷 (2000/05): 頁67-89 。

莊尚武,“從南斯拉夫的分合談塞爾維亞的擴張民族主義”(Yugoslav Division and Serbian Expanded Nationalism), 臺灣史學雜誌, 第2卷 (2006/12): 頁115-132 。

許乃權,“南斯拉夫內戰之探討”(Investigation into Yugoslav Civil War), 國防雜誌, 第11卷第4期 (1995/10): 頁25-33 。

許智偉,“當前南斯拉夫之政治發展”(The Political Development of the Modern Yugoslavia), 歐洲研究 (1983/12): 頁3-20 。

湯紹成,“南斯拉夫的分裂與民族問題”(Yugoslavia’s Disintegration and Ethnic Problem), 問題與研究, 第33卷第4期 (1994/04): 頁97-107 。

———,“柯林頓新政府的南斯拉夫政策”(The New Clinton’s Government Policy toward Yugoslavia), 美國月刊, 第8卷第6期 (1993/06): 頁36-47 。

———,“當前科索夫的問題與困境”(The Current Kosovo Dilemma), 問題與研究, 第40卷第2期 (2001/03-04): 頁83-93 。

黃玉全,“從科索夫戰爭看臺海關係: 現實主義下美國的立場--人權或權力平衡?”(Cross-Strait Relations from the Perspective of the Kosovo War: The United States Position from the Realist Perspective--Human Rights vs. Balance of Power), 國家發展學刊 (國家發展研究學會), 第 5卷 (2000/03): 頁123-138 。

黃德怡,“南斯拉夫內戰中國際干預之解析”(The Case Study of International Intervention in the Yugoslav Civil War), 政治學刊(臺大) , 第2卷 (1993): 頁14-27 。

楊文鎮,“科索夫戰事之探討與體認”(Discussion and Comprehension of the Kosovo War), 國防雜誌, 第15卷第3期 (1999/09): 頁95-115 。

鄒念祖,“聯合國維持和平部隊與波士尼亞內戰”(The UN Peacekeeping Forces and Bosnian Civil War), 美歐月刊, 第10卷第12期 (1995/12): 頁73-87 。

鄒景雯, 李登輝執政告白實錄 (An Account of Lee Teng-hui in Power), (臺北: 成陽總經銷, 2001) 。

趙向文,“南斯拉夫種族獨立運動之研究”(A Study on Yugoslav Ethnic-based Independence Movement), 國防雜誌, 第7卷第3期 (1991/09): 頁51-62。

劉文彬,“科索沃獨立運動之困境”(The Dilemma of Kosovo Independence Movement), 問題與研究第45卷第5期 (2006/09): 頁91-110 。

劉必榮,“南斯拉夫戰爭與美國外交政策”(The Yugoslavia War and the United States’ Foreign Policy Decision Making), 美國月刊, 第7卷第7期 (1992/07): 頁54-63 。

劉書彬,“歐洲聯盟「巴爾幹政策」之研析”(The European Union’s Balkan Policy), 問題與研究, 第42卷第1期 (2003/01): 頁47-74 。

歐陽承新,“南斯拉夫民族衝突的歷史背景與當代發展”(Historical Background of Yugoslavia’s Ethnic Conflicts and Present Development), 歷史月刊136 (1999/05): 43-50 。

———,“淺釋分裂國家的區域經濟導向－斯洛凡尼亞與克羅埃西亞”(Explaining Directions of Divided Countries’ Regional Economies- Slovenia and Croatia), 經濟前瞻, 第63卷 (1999/05): 頁56-60 。

———,“東歐國家(匈牙利, 南斯拉夫)與我經濟合作之可行性”(Feasibility of Economic Cooperation between East European Countries (Hungary, Yugoslavia) and Taiwan), 經濟前瞻, 第18卷 (1990/04): 頁57-61 。

謝志松,“科索夫戰爭對我防護作為之啟示”(The Kosovo Conflict and Implications for Taiwan’s Defence), 國防雜誌, 第15卷第8期 (2000/02): 頁29-35 。
謝益顯主編, 中國外交史: 中華人民共和國時期1949-1979 (A Diplomatic History of China: The Period of the People’s Republic of China 1949-1979), (鄭州: 河南人民出版社, 1994) 。

顏錦標,“北約波士尼亞維和任務之心理作戰”(The Psychological Conduct of the NATO’s Peacekeeping Mission in Bosnia), 中華戰略學刊, 第89卷 (2000/12): 頁253-282 。

譚溯澄,“南斯拉夫與巴爾幹半島之安全”(Yugoslavia and Security of the Balkan Peninsula), 幼獅月刊, 第51卷第4期 (1980/04): 頁7-12 。

嚴安林和黃中平主編, 民進黨對外關係研究 (Foreign Relations of the Democratic Progressive Party), (臺北: 水牛出版社, 2006) 。

蘇武,“從南斯拉夫的分裂看馬其頓及科索沃問題”(The Yugoslavia’s Disintegration and the Questions of Macedonia and Kosovo), 外交部通訊, 第22卷第10期 (1999/08): 頁34-43 。

———,“從南斯拉夫歷史恩怨談科索沃危機” (Discussing Kosovo Crisis from the Perspective of Yugoslav Historical Resentment), 歷史月刊, 第136卷 (1999/05): 頁60-67 。

蘇嘉堔，我國對馬其頓經濟外交之研究 (Taiwan’s Economic Diplomacy towards the Republic of Macedonia),碩士論文 （淡江：淡江大學歐洲研究所，2000/06）。



NEWSPAPER ARTICLES IN WESTERN LANGUAGES


“300mln US Dollar Aid Pledge to Kosovo Sets Off Backlash in Taiwan,” Agence France Presse, (June 9, 1999).

“Aid Plan ‘Exposes Political Flaws’,” China News, (June 10, 1999).

“Armed Intervention Can Never Be Tolerated by Both Laws and Reasons,” People’s Daily, (March 25, 1999).

“Ban Ki-moon Urges Restraint by All Sides after Kosovo Declares Independence,” (February 18, 2008), UN News Centre, http://www.un.org/apps/news.

Baković, Zorana, “Peking opazuje Kosovo skozi svoje povečevalo” (Beijing Observes Kosovo through its Magnifying Glasses), Delo, no. 267, (November 20, 2007).

———, “Podpisali pet sporazumov” (Five Agreements Signed), Delo, no. 258, (November 9, 2007).

———, “Tajvan nadaljuje diplomatsko ofenzivo” (Taiwan’s Diplomatic Offensive Continues), Delo, no. 38, (February 17, 1999).

“Balkan Trade Opened,” The Free China Journal, (December 14, 1989).

Baum, Julian, “Troublesome Friend,” Far Eastern Economic Review 162, no. 43, (October 28, 1999).

Bezlova, Antoaneta, “Stand on Yugoslavia Shows Shift in Foreign Policy,” Inter Press Third World News Agency (IPS), (April 21, 1999), http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/55/156.html.

“Big Travel Fair Set for Taipei during December,” The Free China Journal, (October 9, 1989).

“Bosnia-Herzegovina Backs China’s Anti-Secession Law,” Xinhua, (March 16, 2005), in BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific – Political, (March 16, 2005).

Bradsher, Keith and Edward Wong, “Taiwan Leader Outlines His Policy Toward China,” New York Times, (June 19, 2008), http://en.chinaelections.org/newsinfo.asp?newsid=18102.
“Breakthrough in East Europe Ties Expected,” 中國時報, (March 15, 1989) in FBIS-CHI-89-056 (March 24, 1989).

Brejc, Miha in Jože Biščak, “Tajvanska naveza” (Taiwanese Ties), Finance, no. 18, (March 5, 1999).

Brstovšek, Andrej, “Nemčija na Daljnem vzhodu” (Germany in the Far East), Dnevnik, no. 101, (April 14, 1998).

“Bush, Wen Meet at White House: Text of the Chinese and American Leaders’ Comments,” WashingtonPost.com, (December 9, 2003).

“CETRA to Seek Business Opportunities in the Balkans,” Central News Agency – Taiwan, (August 9, 1999).

Chang, Maubo, “Foreign Ministry Urges Bosnia Not to Deny Visas to Taiwan Visitors,” Central News Agency – Taiwan, (September 30, 2003).

Chen, Melody, “MOFA to Discuss Name Change Plan with Envoys,” Taipei Times, (December 10, 2004), http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2004/12/10/2003214464.

Chen, Shui-bian, in “Chen Tells Voters to Bury Nation’s Dictatorial Past,” Taipei Times, (March 10, 2004), http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2004/03/10/2003101850.

Cheong, Ching, “Taiwan Helps Itself by Helping Kosovo,” Straits Times, (June 15, 1999).

“China Airlines to Land in Yugoslavia,” Central News Agency – Taiwan, (October 30, 1990).

“China Promises 5m Yuan in Military Aid to Bosnia,” FENA (BiH), (October 6, 2006) in BBC Monitoring International Reports (October 11, 2006).

“China Respects Yugoslav People’s Will to Change Regime, Says Minister,” United Press Inte