本研究利用非線性的共整合方法(Xiao, 2009)探討聖嬰現象和捕獲量的關係，利用聯合國農糧組織（FAO）的資料庫從 1950-2008 年在太平洋統計之捕獲量樣本，依照其分類為六大捕獲區分別討論之。本研究的實證結果指出：聖嬰現象對於漁獲量有正向影響，但是其影響係數並非維持一致，會隨著不同的捕獲量而變化。捕獲量越高受到聖嬰現象的影響係數越小，推測主要是因為人類的「過漁」（Overfishing）行為所導致。

This study examines the non-linear cointegrated relationship between capture production and the El Nino/La Nina index using the quantile technique proposed by Xiao (2009). According to the annual sample data of 6 Major Fishing Areas in the Pacific Ocean from 1950 to 2008, our empirical findings provide strong evidence that the cointegrating coefficients follow a time-varying process. They also imply that most of these long-run relationships are influenced by potential shocks over time rather than from maintaining a constant effect consistently. Overall, the contributions of this study not only stresses the importance of the quantile property in cointegrated models, but also provides a viewpoint on the long-run approach that the overall El Nino and La Nina act as engines for capture production.

摘要 ........................................................................................................................ i
Abstract ....................................................................................................................... ii
I. Introduction ................................................................................................... 1
II. Method ........................................................................................................... 8
III. Data Description and Empirical Results ..................................................... 11
IV. Concluding Remarks ................................................................................... 18
V. Figures and Tables ....................................................................................... 20
VI. Reference ..................................................................................................... 26

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