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博碩士論文 etd-0207103-213232 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0207103-213232
論文名稱
Title
總體財政變數與經濟成長-台灣實證探討
Government Spending, Taxes and Economic Growth--Taiwan Study
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
51
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2003-01-06
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2003-02-07
關鍵字
Keywords
租稅收入、公共支出、Granger因果關係檢定、經濟成長
none
統計
Statistics
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The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5714 times, has been downloaded 32 times.
中文摘要
本文是以台灣1951至2001年的年資料進行總體財政變數與經濟成長實證研究,在資料的採取上以政府消費性支出、稅制結構,探討其對經濟成長的重要性。

本文主要是再探討台灣過去四十多年來,財政變數對經濟成長的影響,因此採用時間數列的方法來分析此等變數間的關係。首先,本文以經由單根檢定後的變數,進行長期共整合關係的分析,藉此以其係數來分析財政變數對經濟成長率的影響力;另外,回顧各文獻在實證過程中的不妥之處與實證結果的不一致原因,本文期能有較正確的模型設定與估計結果,以反映出台灣的財政變數對經濟成長率的真正影響效果。


Abstract
none

目次 Table of Contents
第一章 緒論………………………………………………………………1
 第一節 研究緣起…………………………………………………………1
 第二節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………2
 第三節 本文架構…………………………………………………………2

第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………………4
 第一節 公共支出與經濟成長文獻探討…………………………………4
 第二節 公共收入與經濟成長文獻探討…………………………………11

第三章 研究方法介紹……………………………………………………15
 第一節 單根檢定方法……………………………………………………15
 第二節 最適落後期數選擇法與誤差項檢定法…………………………17
 第三節 共整合檢定法……………………………………………………19
 第四節 Granger因果關係、衝擊反應分析……………………………22

第四章 實證分析…………………………………………………………26
 第一節 變數資料來源及處理……………………………………………28
 第二節 單根檢定…………………………………………………………28
 第三節 共整合檢定………………………………………………………31
 第四節 Granger因果關係、衝擊反應分析實證………………………33

第五章 結論與建議………………………………………………………43
 第一節 結論………………………………………………………………43
 第二節 未來研究方向……………………………………………………44

參考文獻……………………………………………………………………45
參考文獻 References
一、中文部分
(1) 許振明(1991)「公共支出與經濟成長」,自由中國之工業,頁5-33。
(2) 尚國瑞(1992)「政府支出行為與經濟成長之研究」,國立政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
(3) 李春常(1993)「政府支出規模與經濟成長-台灣的實證分析」,國立政治大學三民主義研究所碩士論文。
(4) 黃仁德(1993)「台灣地區公共投資的動態效果分析」,中國經濟學年會論文集,頁1-23。
(5) 吳祥華(1994)「總體經濟計量模型之設定、推論與評斷-台灣總體實證研究」,國立政治大學經濟研究所博士論文。
(6) 蔡宗豪(1996)「政府支出與經濟成長-以台灣及亞太地區為例」,財務金融研究所碩士論文。
(7) 孫克難(1997) 「台灣賦稅制度與經濟發展」,財政平衡與財政改革,頁21-106。
(8) 黃仁德、羅時萬(1998)「內生經濟成長理論的綜合評論」,國立政治大學學報78期,頁221-259.
(9) 范芝萍(1999)「政府規模、外貿、投資與經濟成長的因果關係-台灣之實證研究」政大碩士論文。

二、英文部分
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(2) Alesina, A. S. Ozler, N. Roubini, and P. Swagel(1996)“Political Instability and Economic Growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,pp.189-211.
(3) Aschauer, D.A. (1989)“Does Public Capital Crowd Out Private Capital?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(2), pp.171-188.
(4) Barro,R.J.(1979)“On the Determination of the Public Debt”,Journal of Political Economy,87(4),pp.940-947.
(5) Barro,R.J.(1990)“Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”,Journal of Political Economy,98(5),pp.103-125.
(6) Barro,R.J.(1991),“Economic growth in a cross section of countries”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,106,pp.407-44.
(7) Barro,R.J. and X. Sala-I-Martin (1992),“Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth”,Review of Economic Studies,59(4),pp.645-661.
(8) Barro,R.J. and X. Sala-I-Martin (1995) Economic Growth, New York:McGraw Hill Press.
(9) Barro,R.J.(1996),“Determinants of Economic Growth:A Cross-country Empirical Study”,NBER Working Paper, no. 5698.
(10) Becker, G. S.,K. M. Murphy, and R. Tamura (1990)“Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth”,Journal of Political Economy, 98(5),pp.S12-S37.
(11) Blomstrom,M.,R. E. Lipsey, and M. Zejan (1996) “Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics,111(1),pp.269-276.
(12) Brunetti, A. (1997) “Political Variables in Cross-country Growth Analysis”, Journal of Economic Survey, 11(2),pp. 163-190.
(13) Burgess, R. and N. Stern (1993)“Taxation and Development”, Journal of Economic Literature,31(2),pp. 762-830.
(14) Bleaney,M.,R.E.Lipsey,and M. Zejan(1996)“Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,111(1),pp.269-276.
(15) Cashin,P.(1995)“Government Spending,Taxes and Economic Growth”IMF Staff Papers,42(2),pp.237-269.
(16) Cheng,B.s.and T.W.Lai(1997)“Government Expenditures and Economic Growth in South Korea:A VAR Approach,”Journal oj Economic Development,22(1).
(17) Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979)“Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”,Journal of the American Statistical Association,77 ,pp.427-431.
(18) Domar, E.(1946) “Capital Expansion, ate of Growth, and Employment”, Econometrica,14,pp. 137-147.
(19) Easterly, W. and S. Rebelo (1993) “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3) ,pp.417-458.
(20) Engle, R. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987)“Cointegration and error Correction: represention, estimation, and testing”, Econometrica,55(2),pp. 251-276.
(21) Granger, C. W. J. (1969)“Investigation causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods”, Econometrica,37,pp. 424-438.
(22) Granger, C. W. J. (1981)“Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification”, Journal of Econometrics,16,pp.121-130.
(23) Granger, C. W. J. (1988)“Some recent generalizations of cointegration and the analysis of long run relationship, in R. Engle and C. W. J. Granger”, Long-run economic relationships, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
(24) Grier, K. B. and Tullock, G. (1989)“An empirical analysis of cross-national economics growth” , Journal of Monetary Economics, 1951-80,24(1), pp.259-276.
(25) Hesieh,E. and Lai,K.(1994)“Government spending and economic growth”, Applied Economics, 26(5),pp.535-542.
(26) Johannsen, S.(1988)“Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(6)pp.231-254.
(27) Johannsen, S. and Juselius,K.(1990)“Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money”, Oxford Bulletion of Economics and Statistics,52,pp.161-210.
(28) Johannsen, S.(1991)“Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models”, Econometrica,59(2),pp.1551-1580.
(29) Johansen, S.(1992b)“Determination of the cointegration rank in the presence of a linear trend”,Oxford Bulletion of Economics and Statistics,54(1),pp.282-297.
(30) Kormendi, R. and Meguire, P.(1985)“Macroeconomic determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence”,Journal of Monetary Economics,16(4),pp.141-163.
(31) Landau, D.(1983)“Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Cross-Country Study”,Southern Economic Journal,49(3),pp.783-792.
(32) Levine,R.and D.Renelt,(1992)“A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions”,The American Economic Review,82(4),pp.943-963.
(33) Phillips, P.C. and Perron, P.(1988)“Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression”,Biometrica,pp.335-346.
(34) Ram, R.(1986)“Government Size and Economic Growth:A New Framework and Some Evidence From Cross-Section and Time Series Data”,The American Economic Review, 76(6),pp.191-203.
(35) Toda H. Y. and T.Yamamoto(1995).Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibility Integrated Processes,Journal od Econometrics,Vol.66,225-250.
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