軍用發動機供應鏈主要由修理環路、採購環路與申補作業環路等三個環路所串結，國軍在效益後勤策略的指導原則下，除戮力達成機隊目標妥善率的要求外，同時追求系統全壽期成本最低，以因應台海兩岸不確定因素狀況升高，防衛性軍事投資成本快速成長的排擠。但是發動機供應鏈的策略行動與組織內部流程中，是一種動態性的複雜關係，若忽略策略行動造成的副作用及後遺症影響，形成回饋資訊的誤判情形，將造成策略規劃推動的效益不如預期。系統動力學能以動態觀點，系統性地研究管理問題；特別適於研究發動機後勤策略之非線性、多變數、多動態複雜系統。
本研究主要運用系統動力學方法，進行個案研究的資料蒐集與分析；利用供應鏈管理及全壽期成本相關理論，進行系統動力模型之建立、模擬、測試及分析，藉以(一)建立︰軍用發動機維修供應鏈系統動態模式，提供簡單、即時、有效的分析工具。(二)分析︰透過調控參數及策略目標的互動模擬與測試，找尋最適之關鍵績效指標，作為後勤策略決策參考。策略是一套關於因和果的假設，透過系統動力學的驗證及平衡計分卡的四個構面分類，把一個完整的因果關係鏈建構成組織的策略地圖。
研究結果︰(一) 研究整理軍用發動機後勤維修之基本系統動力學模型，可做為策略調整與政策規劃之參考。(二)建構合理備份件總量之調控機制，可有效改善器材的長鞭效應或長期滯庫現象；另軍用發動機維修供應鏈中，採購環路為系統的主導性環路，經濟採購量(Eco_Qty)與合理備份件總量(Spares)兩者為敏感性政策參數。(三)零件改善計畫(CIP：Component Improvement Program)、修理發展工程(RDE：Repair Development Engineering)受執行時機與所需經費影響對全壽期成本效益產生不同的結果，透過本模型可作為執行決策之參考。（四）結合平衡計分卡理論，提出軍用發動機維修策略地圖，明確界定策略相關的關鍵績效指標，發揮策略管理整合企業創造最大價值綜效。期望企業組織能有效運用系統動力學提升企業策略目標長期整體效益。最後提出本研究在管理上的意涵、研究限制與後續研究之建議。

The supply chains of military engines are linked by the repair loop, the foreign military sale loop and the procurement loop. Based on the discipline of the performance based logistics, fleet readiness and the low life cycle cost are the key performance requirement. To response the budget constraint from increasing the investment of defensive weapon systems because of the rising of the uncertain tension situation on the both sides of the Taiwan Strait, it is necessary to have good supply chain management. However most of the managers often ignore the side effects and sequelae caused by their actions to persue the success of their strategy resulting from the complicated dynamic relationship between the strategic actions and inbound logistic process of the engine supply chains. When the managers misinterpret the feedback information with the side effects and sequelae, improper strategy planning will be made and fail to make your goals as expectancy. System dynamics can be used as the solution for unlinear, multi-variables and complicated dynamic problems of engine logistic management because of its systematic, dynamic point of view characteristics.
The research approach adopts the system dynamics and tries to construct a model with the data which carry on the case study. By the expansion of the supply chain management and life cycle cost, the model was carried on the setting-up, simulation, test and analyzing of the system dynamics and will be a mechanism of decision making. Besides, through the interactive simulation of the test between performance index and system variables, the key performance indexes were found out. At the same time some strategy should be revised based on the result of simulation. Because strategy is based on the logic of cause and effect, the correct strategy map can only be built after the test with the system dynamic model.
Study the conclusion: (1) The consequence of the action plan implememtation for engine maintenance management strategy with the system dynamics test can be refered as the reference for policy planning and adjustment of the strategy. (2) Construct the mechanism of spares requirement controling to eliminate the Bullwhip effect. (3) The cost effectiveness of CIP( Component Improvement Program) and RDE( Repair Development Engineering) depends on the timing and cost of implementation. Those can be validated through the interactive simulation of the test.
(4) Built up the strategy map with the extension of balanced scorecard for military engine maintenance management. It is benefitted to utilize the business dynamics and strategy map with key performance index as the outcome for decision making to improve the operating performance of corporation. Lastly, to address the research result that in meaning on of managing, study limitation and the suggestion with follow-on research.

1、緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究的範圍與限制 3
1.4 研究流程與架構 4
2、文獻回顧與探討 7
2.1 壽命周期成本 7
2.1.1壽命週期成本發展史 7
2.1.2 壽命週期成本結構 7
2.1.3壽命週期成本分配 12
2.1.4流程效率管理 13
2.1.5壽期成本控制與管理 14
2.2 可靠度與維護度 16
2.2.1可靠度 16
2.2.2 維護度 17
2.3 供應鏈管理 17
2.3.1供應鏈管理之定義 18
2.3.2長鞭效應 18
2.4 系統動力學 19
2.4.1 系統動力學的起源 19
2.4.2 系統因果回饋結構 21
2.4.3 系統動力學的相關文獻 23
2.4.4 系統動力學的相關文獻 25
2.4.5 使用系統動力學模擬的理由 25
2.5 平衡計分卡與策略地圖 27
2.5.1平衡計分卡 27
2.5.2平衡計分卡的限制 27
2.5.3策略地圖 27
2.5.4結合系統動力學與平衡計分卡之研究 30
2.6 小結 32
3、模型建構 34
3.1 建模的步驟 34
3.2空軍發動機後勤供應鏈個案運補決策模式概述 34
3.2.1系統動力學建模原則 34
3.2.2績效衡量原則 37
3.3因果回饋分析 39
3.4 建立動態模式 41
3.4.1發動機供應鏈子系統 42
3.4.2 合理總量子系統 56
3.4.3採購成本子系統 57
3.4.4 修理成本子系統 59
3.4.5 商修成本子系統 60
3.4.6 全壽期成本子系統 62
3.5模式測試 65
3.6 小結 70
4、情境模擬與策略分析 71
4.1 情境設計 71
4.1.1發動機供應鏈情境設計 72
4.1.2傳統供補作業配置下不同需求模擬情境設計 74
4.1.3相同需求條件下之最佳化供補作業配置模擬情境設計 74
4.2 發動機供應鏈模擬分析 75
4.2.1 發動機供應鏈基本模擬 75
4.2.2發動機供應鏈長鞭效應模擬 75
4.3 傳統供補作業配置下不同需求模擬分析 78
4.3.1 傳統作業最適化模擬分析 78
4.3.2變動需求最適化模擬分析 80
4.4 相同需求條件下之最佳化供補作業配置模擬分析 86
4.5 軍用發動機後勤維修策略地圖 88
5、結論與建議 91
5.1 結論 91
5.2 研究貢獻 93
5.3 後續研究的建議 94
參考文獻 95

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