Responsive image
博碩士論文 etd-0212109-100057 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0212109-100057
論文名稱
Title
台灣行動電話市場之循環變動與其決定因素
Cyclical Fluctuation and its Determinants in Taiwan Mobile Market
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
48
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2009-01-21
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2009-02-12
關鍵字
Keywords
VAR模型、Markov regime-switching模型、波動、電信業、產業循環
Markov regime-switching model, VAR model, Fluctuations, Industry cycles, Telecommunications
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5715 次,被下載 0
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5715 times, has been downloaded 0 times.
中文摘要
回顧過去,電信技術與服務皆不斷創新與發展,電信自由化也已蔚為國際趨勢,台灣電信產業躬逢其盛,已逐步開放市場,並試圖營造公平的競爭環境,同時,不論在規章制度、產業結構、技術或者市場需求等方面有著重大的變化,電信業的環境變得比過去獨占時期更加反覆無常。為延伸Noam在2006年提出不穩定性與循環變動將會是未來電信產業固有的部份,我們首先探索台灣電信業的循環的行為,由於無法直接明確定義電信產業循環波動的轉折點,我們採用二階段Markov Regime-Switching model。隨後我們進一步探討行動通訊產業循環波動背後的影響因子,在1996年電信三法通過後,行動通訊產業是第一個開放之產業,而且其普及率有迅速發展,其中的業者也飽受激烈競爭的洗禮,因此透過vector autoregressive (VAR) model,我們確認行動通訊產業其產出波動循環背後的因素可被歸納為五個方向,包括總體經濟狀態、需求、網路效果、設備進口價格以及產品價格,就單獨業者而言,自由化政策的推動和技術的發展亦有著重要作用。本文不僅止於產業變動的觀察,更將可能之波動影響因子內生化,架構一個內含11個變數VAR模型,並衡量出主要影響因子以期了解產業波動全貌。
Abstract
In retrospect, telecommunication technology and services have seen incessant renovation and development. The wave of liberalization is also the inexorable trend in the global telecommunications industry, the telecommunications industry in Taiwan can not be excluded itself from the trend. The telecommunications industry in Taiwan has been opened by degrees and sought to establish a fair competitive environment. In the meantime, there are several important changes no matter in facets of regulatory regimes, industrial structure, technology, or market demand, etc. The environment of telecommunications industry became more volatile than the monopoly one's. We extend the opinion of Noam (2006) who observed the long-term upturn and downturn in the American telecommunications industry and concluded that that volatility and cyclicality will be an inherent part of the telecommunication sector in the future. First, in our thesis we explore the cyclical behavior of Taiwan telecommunications industry. As the turning point of the telecommunications industry may be obscure, we adopt a Markov Regime-Switching model with two regimes representing contraction and expansion. This nonlinear, two states, regime-switching model shows that Taiwan telecommunications industry has suffered from the cyclic fluctuation since the liberalization had been followed out.
We focus on the mobile phone industry thereafter in this study. Since three telecommunication-related laws passed in 1996, the mobile phone industry is the first industry implemented the liberalization policy. In the process of the mobile phone industry's evolution, the carriers in this industry all experience the rapid growth in the mobile phone penetration rate and the fierce competition. Hence, to identify the main explanatory factors of the mobile phone industry fluctuation and cycles we introduce an 11-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The empirical results confirm that the mobile phone industry' output can be influenced by five factors mainly including the macroeconomic status, demand, network effect, relative equipment import price, and output price, and furthermore, the impetus of the liberalization policy and the progress of the technology also play an important role beyond the five main factors in terms of the separate carriers' analysis.
目次 Table of Contents
I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................1
II. Overview of the Telecommunications Industry .....................................................3
2.1 Monopoly Stage .........................................................................................................3
2.2 The Process of Telecommunication Liberalization in Taiwan ..........................4
III. Literature Reviews of Telecommunication Evolution ............................................6
3.1 The Transition of Regulations and Policy .............................................................6
3.2 Technological Stimulation ...............................................................................8
3.3 The Indistinct Boundary ........................................................................................9
3.4 Competition .......................................................................................................10
3.5 The Changing Demand ......................................................................................10
3.6 Merger and Acquisition ......................................................................................11
3.7 Convergence and the Internet .............................................................................12
IV. Theoretical Model .......................................................................................................13
4.1 Markov Regime-Switching Model ....................................................................13
4.1.1 Model Setup .......................................................................................................13
4.1.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Parameters ..........................................14
4.2 The Unrestricted VAR Model .............................................................................15
V. Empirical Findings .......................................................................................................17
5.1 Data Sources and Variable Definitions ...........................................................17
5.2 Estimated Parameters of the Markov Switching Model .................................19
5.2.1 Policy Implications ......................................................................................21
5.3 Analytical Framework and the Estimation of the Unrestricted VAR Model .......24
5.3.1 Policy Implications ......................................................................................24
VI. Conclusions ................................................................................................................30
Reference ........................................................................................................................30
Appendix ........................................................................................................................34
參考文獻 References
Atkin, David J., Tuen-Yu Lau, and Carolyn A. Lin (2006), “Still on Hold? A Retrospective Analysis of Competitive Implications of the Telecommunication Act of 1996, on Its 10th Year Anniversary,” Telecommunication Policy, 30, 80–95.
Barney Warf (2003), “Mergers and Acquisitions in the Telecommunications Industry,” Growth and Change, 34:3, 321-344.
Bell, D. (1980), “The Social Framework of the Information Society,” in T. Forester (Ed.), The microelectronics revolution, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 500-549.
Bolter, W. G., J.B. Duvall, F. J. Kelsey, & J.W. McConnaughey (1984), Telecommunications policy for the 1980s: The transition to competition, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Chow, G. (1960), “Tests of the Equality between Two Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions,” Econometrica, 28, 561–605.
Cleveland, H. (1985), “The Twilight of Hierarchy: Speculations on the Global Information Society,” in B. Guile (Ed.), Information technologies and social transformation, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
Fransman, Martin (1995), Japan's Computer and Telecommunications Industry, Oxford University Press.
Fransman, Martin (2001), “Analysing the Evolution of Industry: The Relevance of the Telecommunications Industry,” Econ. Innov. New Techn., 10, 109-140.
Fransman, Martin (2002), Telecommunication in the Internet Age, Oxford University Press, New York.
Gaffard, Jean-Luc, and Jackie Krafft (2000), “Telecommunication: Understanding the Dynamics of the Organization of the Industry,” < http://telecomvisions.com/articles/pdf/jackie.pdf>.
Garcia-Murillo, Martha A., and Ian MacInnes (2001), “FCC Organizational Structure and Regulatory Convergence FCC Organizational Structure and Regulatory Convergence,” Telecommunications Policy, 25, 431-452.
Gong, Jiong, and Padmanabhan Srinagesh (1996), “Network Competition and Industry Structure,” NII Initiative, Bell Communications Research Inc.
Hamilton, J.D. (1989), “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle,” Econometrica, 57, 357–384.
Hamilton, J.D. (1990), “Analysis of Time Series Subject to Changes in Regime,” Journal of Econometrics, 45, 39-70.
Horwitz, R. B. (1989), The Irony of Regulatory Reform: The Deregulation of American Telecommunications, Oxford University Press, New York.
Katz, R., Weise M., Yang, D. (2002), “The US Wireless Industry: Consolidation of Scenarios,” Report, Booz Allen Hamilton, New York.
Kam, Jacqueline (2006), “No Pain, No Gain: Rethinking the Telecoms Crash,” Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 18, 5, 497–514.
Laffont, Jean-Jacques, and Jean Tirole (2000), Competition in Telecommunications, MIT Press, Cambridge.
Lenain, P. and S. Paltridge (2003), “After the Telecommunication Bubble,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, NO. 361, OECD Publishing.
Li, Feng, and Jason Whalley (2002), “Deconstruction of the Telecommunications Industry: From Value Chains to Value Networks,” Telecommunications Policy, 26, 451–472.
Liu, Wen-Hsien (2005), “Determinants of the Semiconductor Industry Cycles,” Jorunal of Policy Modelling, 27, 853-866.
Liu, Wen-Hsien, and Yih-Luan Chyi (2006), “A Markov Regime-Switching Model for the Semiconductor Industry Cycles,” Economic Modelling, 23, 569-578.
Monlouis, J. (1998), “The Future of Telecommunications Operator Alliances,” Telecommunications Policy, 22, 635-641.
Nadiri, M. I., and B. Nandi (1997), “The Changing Structure of Cost and Demand for the U.S. Telecommunications Industry,” Information Economics and Policy, 9, 319-347.
Noam, E. (1984), “Private Sector Monopolies. The Case of Cable Television Franchises”, in: Marc Holzer, Nagel, S. (Eds.), Productivity and public policy, Sage Publications, Beverly Hills.
Noam, E. (1985), “Economies of Scale in Cable Television”, in: Noam, E. (Ed.), Video Media Competition: Regulation, Economics, and Technology, Columbia University Press, New York, 93–120.
Noam, Eli M. (2006), “Fundamental Instability: Why Telecom is Becoming a Cyclical and Oligopolistic Industry,” Information Economics and Policy, 18, 272–284.
Rogers, E. M. (1986), Communication Technology: The New Media in Society, New York: Free Press.
Sims, C. (1980), “Comparisons of Interwar and Postwar Cycles: Monetarian Reconsidered,” American Economic Review, 70, 250–257.
Warf, Barney (2003), “Mergers and Acquisitions in the Telecommunications Industry,” Growth and Change, 34, 3, 321-344.
Waverman, L. (1997), “Telecom Regulation and Capital Markets”, unpublished paper presented at the Columbia Institute for Tele-Information, Conference on Telecommunications Volatility, April.
Ypsilanti, D. ,and P. Xavier (1998), “Towards Next Generation Regulation,” Telecommunications Policy, 22, 643-659.
電子全文 Fulltext
本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。
論文使用權限 Thesis access permission:校內校外均不公開 not available
開放時間 Available:
校內 Campus:永不公開 not available
校外 Off-campus:永不公開 not available

您的 IP(校外) 位址是 44.204.125.111
論文開放下載的時間是 校外不公開

Your IP address is 44.204.125.111
This thesis will be available to you on Indicate off-campus access is not available.

紙本論文 Printed copies
紙本論文的公開資訊在102學年度以後相對較為完整。如果需要查詢101學年度以前的紙本論文公開資訊,請聯繫圖資處紙本論文服務櫃台。如有不便之處敬請見諒。
開放時間 available 已公開 available

QR Code