軟性變數為主的系統動力學建模方法之研究，是相當新的研究方向，亦欠缺完整的討論，本次研究以Luna-Reys及Andersen (2003) 的研究作基礎，提出四階段軟性變數建模的實作經驗回饋，主要發現如下：

一、建模初期的概念化階段：

(一)以品質嚴謹的學術性期刊文章為建模標的能獲得較高的建構效度，而個案研究須瞭解個案之複雜系統後，再行尋找其於學術理論中的定位。

(二)在質化編碼時即融入系統思考工具與概念，使變數間關係的連結可以環的方式展現。

二、數學邏輯設定階段：本研究整理出來軟性變數的數學邏輯設定列表，可提供建模者視情況選取最佳的數學設定方式，且綜合不同方式可提高設定的信效度，如田野觀察研究法可補充並強化Ford及Sterman (1998) 提出的專家建模法。

三、軟性變數為主模型的測試強調行為重現，重在趨勢與實際世界相符而非數值的精準，且變數間的單位一致性尤為重要。

四、模型操作階段：重在評估軟性變數建模是否可帶來任何新的洞見

五、本研究中的指導建模的過程，認為可藉由不同難度之專案培養建模能力，讓建模者由簡至難的專案執行中精熟系統思考七大能力，同時強化建模能力及對世界的洞察力。

本研究從相關的文獻回顧、實作過程及指導建模中，探索以軟性變數為主的系統動力學建模的方式及原則，可作為未來執行類似研究之具體參考依據，以提高建模效度及避免錯誤。

Exploring system dynamics methodology that deals with systems filled with mainly soft variables is a newly field. It is important to completely discuss soft variables modeling methodology of system dynamics. The simulation methodology to explore topics including lots of soft variables lacks complete discussion. According the study we suggested some principles to enhance Luna-Reys and Andersen’s (2003) suggestions:

一、During initial modeling process
(一)In one side using literatures from academic journal as the modeling objectives would get the better construct consistency, in the other side case studying must completely understand the dynamic system first and position the insights in the theories.
(二)When using qualification methods to explore variables relationship, exercising system thinking concept could present structure in loop format.
二、Mathematics setup list arranged from this study could help researcher finding the best way to deal with soft variables depending on situation the researchers faced. Synthesizing different way of setting up soft variables would raise the accuracy of soft variables. For one example, observation research could enhance the weakness of expert research offered by Ford and Sterman (1998).
三、During soft variables model testing, behavior reproduction emphasized on trend match and the dimension consistency between variables mattered most.
四、If implementing the model brings in new insight, the modeling process is valuable.
五、Different projects with different difficult level could help to train the modeler and to raise their abilities of system thinking, system dynamics, and insight into the real world.

This study concerns soft variables modeling approach. The relative literatures review and application process could be used as reference for similar future research.

中文摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
目錄 III
表目錄 VII
圖目錄 VII
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與重要性 1
第二節 研究目的 4
第三節 研究架構及研究設計 6
第二章 軟性變數為主的系統動力學建模方法文獻回顧 8
第一節 探索性研究軟性變數對社會系統的影響力 9
第二節 軟性變數的重要性及定義 10
一、為什麼軟性變數 (soft variables)非常重要？ 10
二、軟性變數的定義 12
三、我們為何以系統動力學處理軟性變數 14
第三節 如何建構包含軟性變數的模式-四步驟建議 18
一、概念化階段 (Conceptualization)：以持續放大與縮小視野 (zoom in and zoom out) 的方式確認研究議題之定位 20
二、數學邏輯設定階段 (Formulation)：軟性變數的設定方式 29
三、模型測試階段：專注在行為上 (Focused on the behavior) 39
四、模型操作階段 40
五、文獻回顧摘要說明：四步驟原則進行軟性變數建模 42
第三章 研究方法 45
第一節 軟性變數建模方法：質(系統思考) 量 (系統動力學) 化方法 45
一、概念模式建構：以質化與系統思考方法建構 45
二、系統動力學模型建構與政策實驗 46
第二節 個案研究 52
第四章 軟性變數為主的系統動力學模型之實作 53
第一節 概念化階段的實作過程 53
一、研究議題定位與邊界界定-用嚴謹學術研究作品以獲得較佳內在建構效度 53
二、綜合質化、系統思考 (基模) 及流率量概念來搜尋影響變數清單並連結變數關係及找出主導環路 62
第二節 數學邏輯設定階段：軟性變數的設定 65
一、利用文獻設定軟性變數初始值及變數間的影響權數 65
二、利用文獻設計以切換開關的方式設定變數的作用與否 66
三、表/圖函數的利用-利用表、理論、變數設定及敏感性測試處理變數與變數間單位一致性問題 66
四、以質化方法來設定表函數：利用田野實驗法輔助專家建模來設定表函數 67
五、從存率量、結構的選擇分辨變數可能的屬性 69
六、由競爭優勢個案IBM說明利用綜合方法處理「軟性變數單位一致性」的過程 69
第三節 模型測試階段 74
一、專注在行為上 74
二、應用部分模型測試 78
三、單位一致性測試 78
第四節 模型操作階段：結果評估 79
一、模擬情境測試- 以各種不同的初始值進行模型的模擬 79
二、利用研究作品的描述進行模型的政策測試 79
三、提供未來研究可以延伸的方向-假設情境轉變時的模擬分析 89
第五章 軟性變數建模方法的應用-探討指導建模的有效性 92
第一節 概念化階段 94
第二節 數學邏輯設定階段 97
第三節 測試階段 103
第四節 操作階段 104
第五節 指導後發現 107
第六章 結論：研究發現與限制 111
第一節 軟性變數建模方法的研究發現 111
一、從實作經驗中深入討論Luna-Reyes及Andersen (2003) 提出的四步驟軟性變數建模過程 111
二、系統動力學模型的軟性變數多寡視研究主題與人類活動的相關程度而定 113
三、系統動力學可以強化質化研究之不足 113
第二節 研究限制 114
參考文獻 118
中文部分 118
英文部分 119
附錄 1管理領域專家對企業運作的觀點 135
一、Collins (2002) 發現的策略優先順序 135
二、Handy及Peter Drucker對創新的觀點 136
三、從第五項修練 (Senge, 1990) 中發掘的因果關係圖示及說明如下： 141
四、「覺醒的企業 (Conscious business)」(Kofman, 2006) 中發掘的因果關係 147
五、松下幸之助與稻盛和夫的觀點 152
六、建構管理專家對企業成長之概念模式 155
附錄 2 依松下幸之助經營哲學建出之模式的詳細說明 159
附錄 3：競爭優勢的系統動力學研究 165
壹．競爭優勢文獻回顧 165
一、競爭優勢 165
二、資源基礎論及動態資源分析 168
三、競爭環境分析 169
四、策略規劃過程 169
貳．系統動力學模型 172
一、策略規劃流程 172
二、資源創造流程 175
三、競爭情境 180
參．競爭優勢的研究發現 181
一、競爭優勢的震盪行為來自時間滯延的效果 181
二、新一波的競爭優勢來自累積足夠程度的策略形成 181
三、新的策略意圖水準必須高於現有核心能力水準，新一波競爭優勢才會開始建立 182
肆．管理意涵 182
伍．關於競爭優勢的研究限制 182
附錄 4：卓越企業理論-中鋼個案研究 183
壹．卓越企業的文獻回顧 183
貳．中鋼的系統動力學模型 184
一、領導團隊相關的模組 185
二、鋼鐵供需模組 188
三、錢流 194
參．從卓越的企業-中鋼個案研究中獲得的啟示 200
肆．管理意涵 203
伍．關於卓越企業的研究限制 204

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