本論文是以有邏輯且組織的研究方法來進行研究並回答兩個研究問題。論文的第一部份旨在研究如何預測新開發市場，第二部份旨在檢視當新市場正面臨開發期，何種進入市場的模式是最適合的。預測方式是以多因素指數法為基礎，並進行調整使其更適合被用於特殊工業市場的需求。此外，為了使預測結果更為準確，與業界專家訪談的資訊亦為此預測的其中因素。此研究使用Rosenbauer International 股份有限公司的案例進行分析，該案例旨在預測消防車輛在澳洲礦業的市場潛能，以預測結果為基礎，可以藉由此市場進入模式可能性的分析及討論看出各種市場進入模式（出口、授權、合資和外國直接投資）的優點和缺點。最後，此市場預測的結果及內部和外部因素的分析，即決定最佳市場進入模式的因素，顯示的結果為，在市場開發的起始階段，出口是工業市場的最佳進入模式。

This master thesis is structured in a way that it can answer both research question in a logical organized way. The first part of this Master Thesis investigates how newly, developing markets can be estimated whereas the second part of this thesis examines what kind of entry mode is most appropriate to conquer a market opening. Thereby, the estimation method is based on the Multiple Factor Index method but adjusted to fit it to the special requirements of analyzing specialized industrial markets. Furthermore, the method is expanded and information of interviews of industry experts is incorporated in order to increase the precision of the estimation. A case study with the company Rosenbauer International AG is conducted with the purpose to estimate the market potential of fire fighting vehicles in the Australian mining industry. Based on the result of the market estimation an analysis and discussion of the market entry mode possibilities will show the disadvantages and advantages of each primarily used entry modes. (Exporting, Licensing, Joint Venture, Foreign Direct Investment) Concluding, the results of the market estimation and the analysis of the internal and external factors which decide the attractiveness of each market entry mode will show that Exporting is the best mode of entering an industrial market at the initial stage of market development.

1 Introduction 1
1.1 Problem and Motive 1
1.2 Aims and Structure 2
2 Literature Review 3
2.1 Market Analysis 3
2.2 Market Estimations Methods 5
2.3 Calculation Methods 7
2.3.1 Market Potential Estimation 7
2.3.2 Estimating Existing and Potential Customers 8
2.3.3 Industry Sales and Market Shares 8
2.4 Entry Mode Strategies 9
2.4.1 Exporting 9
2.4.2 Licensing 10
2.4.3 Joint Venture 11
2.4.4 Foreign Direct Investment - Acquiring a foreign company or Greenfield
Investment 12
3 Methodology 14
3.1 Case study approach 14
3.2 Secondary sources 14
3.3 Primary sources 16
3.4 Sampling 17
4 Case Study 18
4.1 Overview of the Australian Mining Industry 18
4.2 Companies Involved 19
4.2.1 BHP Billiton 19
4.2.2 Rio Tinto 21
4.2.3 THIESS – Contractor 23
4.3 Regulations in Australia 23
4.4 Hazelwood – open-pit coal mine fire 24
4.5 Firefighting capabilities in mining companies 25
5 Estimations 27
5.1 Basic assumptions 27
5.2 Threat potential and coal mining regions 28
5.2.1 Estimation – Region New South Wales 30
5.2.2 Estimation – Victoria 30
5.2.3 Estimation – Rest of Australia 31
5.2.4 Western Australia and South Australia 31
5.3 Mines in the Outback 32
5.4 Rural mines 33
5.4.1 Estimations rural mines 35
6 Analysis and Discussion 36
7 Conclusion 46
8 Recommendations 50
9 Bibliography 52

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