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博碩士論文 etd-0515117-150755 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0515117-150755
論文名稱
Title
為減輕厄瓜多爾塑膠公司的市場風險而提出的國際對沖策略提案
Consulting Project, International Hedge Strategy for Mitigating Market Risks, Applied to an Ecuadorian Company of the Plastic Industry
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
72
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2017-06-22
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2017-07-01
關鍵字
Keywords
盈餘、選擇權行使價格、相關資產、負相關、金融衍生工具、聚丙烯、石油
Premium, Underlying asset, Exercise price, Negative Correlation, Financial Derivatives, Polypropylene, Oil
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5722 次,被下載 519
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5722 times, has been downloaded 519 times.
中文摘要
本研究包括用金融衍生工具作為塑料工業中的厄瓜多爾公司 Plasticos Industriales (從現在起將以PICA替代之) 的投資替代品的分析。此提案是根據一項最好的金融工具所提出的,這種方法將波動率視為可能影響PICA預算預測的外部因素來作為此特定的案例分析。在此研究中也解釋說明了,在芝加哥證券交易所交易的資產石油和聚丙烯之間存在直接關係,而聚丙烯是用作PICA主要原料的各種應用的熱塑性聚合物。

石油價格與購買選擇權之間存在著負相關係,這是提案成功的有力論據。隨後,截至2017年5月,對石油和聚丙烯價格的真實數據進行了模擬,目的是證明這一金融工具可以用來對沖當PICA購買聚丙烯時,波動油價產生高成本所帶來的市場風險。

最後,建議在南美洲做更深入的研究,始能進入更多的市場,例如用厄瓜多爾的鄰近國家:哥倫比亞和秘魯證券交易的金融工具,尋求建立策略聯盟,進一步加強合作,使得此策略均能應用於拉丁美洲地區。
Abstract
present study consists of the analysis of financial derivatives as an investment alternative for an Ecuadorian company within the plastic industry, Plasticos Industriales, which from now on will be considered as PICA. A proposal is presented based on the best available financial tool, this approach considers volatility as an exogenous factor that may affect the budget projections of PICA, as a particular case study. It is also explained in the development of the research that there is a direct relationship between oil, an asset traded on the Chicago Stock Exchange, and polypropylene, a thermoplastic polymer that is used for various applications which serves as the main raw material of PICA.

A negative correlation between oil prices and the option purchased is manifested, a strong argument for the success of the proposal. Subsequently, a simulation with real data on oil and polypropylene prices is carried out as of May 2017, which seeks to prove that this financial tool serves as a hedge against the risks of markets presented in volatile oil prices which consequently reflect high costs in the acquisition of polypropylene by PICA, being exposed to the market variations.

Finally, it is suggested to deepen this study in South America, entering into more accessible markets such as the negotiation of financial instruments on the Stock Exchanges of Ecuador’s neighboring countries, Colombia and Peru, seeking the creation of Strategic Alliances for further cooperation at the level of that Region, as financial hedges applied in Latin America.
目次 Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Thesis Validation Letter ……………..…………………………………………………..i
Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………….……..ii
Abstract (Chinese)……………………………………………………………………....iii
Abstract (English)……………………………………………………………….……....iv
Chapter 1: Literature Review………………………………….………………...….…..1
Section A. Title………………......................................................................... 1
Section B. Business Plan Strategy..................................................................1
Section C. Objectives.....................................................................................7
Section D. Importance of the Business Plan.....................................................8
Chapter 2: ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK .........................................................12
Section A. Family Business……..................................................................... 12
Section B. Conceptual framework.....................................................................14
Section C. Theoretical Framework ....................................................................21
Chapter 3: METHODOLOGY ............................................................................40
Section A. Business Plan Design .....................................................................40
Section B. Scope of the Business Plan .............................................................41
Chapter 4: RESULTS ANALYSIS ......................................................................45
Chapter 5: THE STRATEGY..............................................................................48
Chapter 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................55
Section A. Suggestions ....................................................................................55
Section B. Recommendations ...........................................................................57
Bibliography & References ................................................................................59
Annexes ..........................................................................................................62
參考文獻 References
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9. McNally, R. (2017). Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices. NY: Columbia University Press
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11. Energy Prospectus Group. (2017, May 12). Why The Right Price For Oil Is Between $60 And $70. Retrieved from http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-The-Right-Price-For-Oil-Is-Between-60-And-70.html
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