中國是否會在南海發起戰爭？為了探討這個問題，多專家學者嘗試由中國政府的立場分析，尋求和平解決中國在南海領土爭端，找出避免戰爭產生的方法。由國家利益的角度，分析及預測國家行為是可行的方法之一。中國對其核心利益的立場，攸關其如何執行其國內外政策、外交，經濟和軍事行動。本文從政治和外交政策、社會經濟因素和軍事力量等三個面相，分析中國核心利益的概念，探討有關中國捍衛台灣、西藏、新疆與南海主權的核心利益概念。本文的目在於重新檢視當前中國對核心利益的定義，並理解中國對於解決主權爭議的實際意圖。本文就政治、社會經濟與軍事等面向分析後得出的結論是，中國將南海視為重要的核心利益。 由此而論，當各國領導人和決策者在處理與中國的領土爭議時，就能夠採取更好的應對措施，透過外交手段的和平方式，解決彼此之間的衝突。

Will the People’s Republic of China end up at war over the South China Sea? Diplomats, advisors, and scholars are working tirelessly to analyze the Chinese government’s vision, perspective, and policies regarding this issue to find a peaceful solution to the territorial disputes. One way to analyze and predict what a country may do is to evaluate its national interests. The PRC’s position on its core national interests signals how it conducts its domestic and foreign policy, and its diplomatic, economic, and military actions are directly related to these interests. This thesis analyzes the concept of China’s core national interests from three perspectives: political and diplomatic policies, socio-economic factors, and military use of force. This research accomplishes this endeavor by presenting an analysis of China’s core national interests and comparing case studies of four territories: Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea. The purpose of this thesis is to refine the existing definition of a core national interest and acquire a holistic understanding of China’s intent and resolve regarding its sovereign rights in these specific regions. This study concludes that from all three perspectives, China considers all four territories, including the South China Sea, core national interests. With this in mind, world leaders and policymakers might better predict China’s ultimate goals in the region and the steps it is willing to take to achieve them. Then in turn, they might also better orchestrate the delicate diplomatic interactions necessary to maintain peace throughout this conflict resolution process.

Table of Contents
Thesis Validation Letter .................................................................................................... i
Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... ii
摘要 ................................................................................................................................. iii
Abstract ............................................................................................................................ iv
Chapter 1: Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background and Motives ............................................................................................ 1
1.2 Purpose ...................................................................................................................... 4
1.3 Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 6
1.4 Research Methodology ............................................................................................. 16
1.5 Approach and Limitations .......................................................................................... 19
1.6 Chapter Arrangement ................................................................................................ 20
Chapter 2: Core National Interests – An Examination of the Concept ............................ 21
2.1 Historical and Theoretical Context ............................................................................ 21
2.2 A Modern Analysis .................................................................................................... 27
Chapter 3: Taiwan .......................................................................................................... 39
3.1 Political and Diplomatic Policy ................................................................................. 39
3.2 Socio-economic Factors .......................................................................................... 47
3.3 Use of Force ............................................................................................................ 48
3.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 55
Chapter 4: Tibet ............................................................................................................. 59
4.1 Political and Diplomatic Policy ................................................................................. 59
4.2 Socio-economic Factors .......................................................................................... 63
4.3 Use of Force ............................................................................................................ 65
4.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 68
Chapter 5: Xinjiang ........................................................................................................ 71
5.1 Political and Diplomatic Policy ................................................................................. 71
5.2 Socio-economic Factors .......................................................................................... 74
5.3 Use of Force ............................................................................................................ 78
5.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 82
Chapter 6: South China Sea .......................................................................................... 84
6.1 Political and Diplomatic Policy ................................................................................. 84
6.2 Socio-economic Factors .......................................................................................... 93
6.3 Use of Force ............................................................................................................ 99
6.4 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 106
Chapter 7: Conclusion .................................................................................................. 108
7.1 Research Findings ................................................................................................. 108
7.2 Areas for Further Research ................................................................................... 115
References ................................................................................................................... 117

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