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博碩士論文 etd-0515118-144535 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0515118-144535
論文名稱
Title
中國核戰略的發展:中國核武結構的重大變革
The Development of China’s Nuclear Strategy: A Seismic Shift in China’s Nuclear Force Structure
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
103
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2018-06-15
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2018-06-15
關鍵字
Keywords
第二擊能力、核戰略、長程轟炸機、核威懾
nuclear deterrence, second-strike capability, nuclear strategy, long-range bomber
統計
Statistics
本論文已被瀏覽 5724 次,被下載 220
The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5724 times, has been downloaded 220 times.
中文摘要
中國人民解放軍空軍司令馬曉天上將在2015年宣布,中國將研發一款新型的長程核戰略轟炸機,藉此實現國家核武的三棲能力。本論文運用Bernard Brodie提出的核威懾理論框架,從三個面向分析中國核武軍力結構劇烈變革背後的原因:第一、中共高層領導人的意圖及願景;第二、人民解放軍核策略及準則的演進;第三、中國航空國防工業科技之能力。此外,轟炸機視野及彈性俱佳的固有優勢也使得此分析更加完善。中國發展轟炸機的主因源自於國家主席習近平「修正主義式」的外交政策為本文得出的結論。進言之,中國在核戰略及準則的發展,將聚焦於將存活率、穿透率以及戰略溝通化極大化。因此,中國對長程核戰略轟炸機自主研發能力的重視,同時擺脫對外國航空科技長期以來的依賴,顯示出,中國現在已準備好加入美、俄等具有三棲核武能力國家的行列。

關鍵字:長程轟炸機,核威懾,第二擊能力,核戰略
Abstract
In 2015, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) commander, General Ma Xiaotian, announced that China will develop a new long-range, strategic nuclear bomber and complete the nation’s nuclear triad. This research analyzes the reasons behind this seismic shift in the PRC’s nuclear force structure from three perspectives: (1) the ideas and vision of high-level CCP leadership, (2) the evolution of PLA nuclear strategy and doctrine, (3) the technological capabilities of China’s aerospace defense industry. Dr. Bernard Brodie’s concept of nuclear deterrence provides the theoretical framework for this research and the inherent bomber advantages of visibility and flexibility offer further refinement in the analysis. This study concludes that the main drivers behind China’s decision to develop a bomber are the revisionist foreign policy agenda of current Chinese President Xi Jinping, coupled with the evolution in the nation’s nuclear strategy and doctrine which now focuses on maximizing survivability, penetrability, and strategic communication. The timing of these developments coincides perfectly with the fact that China has very recently unshackled itself from the nation’s historic reliance on foreign aircraft technology, thus demonstrating that its aerospace industry is capable of indigenously developing a long-range, strategic bomber. China now sits poised to join the United States and Russia in the club of nuclear triad nations.
目次 Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Thesis Validation Letter .................................................................................................... i
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ ii
摘要 ................................................................................................................................. iii
Abstract ............................................................................................................................ iv
Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................1
1.1 Background and Motives .............................................................................................1
1.2 Purpose .......................................................................................................................5
1.3 Literature Review ........................................................................................................7
1.4 Research Methods ....................................................................................................12
1.5 Approach and Limitations ..........................................................................................13
1.6 Chapter Arrangement ................................................................................................15
Chapter 2: Nuclear Force Structures, the Nuclear Triad, and the Role of the Bomber ...16
2.1 The Structure of the United States’ Nuclear Forces ..................................................17
2.2 The Structure of Russia’s Nuclear Forces .................................................................21
2.3 The Structure of China’s Nuclear Forces ..................................................................25
2.4 The Theoretical Framework of Nuclear Deterrence and the Triad ............................30
2.5 The Role of the Intercontinental Strategic Bomber in Nuclear Deterrence ...............33
Chapter 3: The Impact of China’s Leaders on Its Nuclear Force Structure ....................38
3.1 The Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping Era ................................................................40
3.2 The Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao Era .........................................................................46
3.3 The Xi Jinping Era ....................................................................................................49
3.4 Conclusion ................................................................................................................54
Chapter 4: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Doctrine ............................56
4.1 Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Doctrine, 1950-1990 ................................................57
4.2 Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Doctrine, 1990-Present ...........................................65
Chapter 5: The Technological Capabilities of China’s Military Aerospace Industry .......71
5.1 The PLAAF’s Historical Reliance on Foreign Technology ........................................72
5.2 China’s Jet Engine Problem ......................................................................................75
5.3 The Future .................................................................................................................78
Chapter 6: Conclusion .....................................................................................................82
6.1 Research Findings .....................................................................................................82
6.2 Opportunities for Further Research ...........................................................................86
References .......................................................................................................................88
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