生態旅遊成為國際間積極發展的旅遊方式與概念，而七股溼地具有的功能與價值和七股地區的養殖、鹽業、特殊海岸地形及生態資源，這些都使七股生態旅遊蓬勃發展，但同時濕地生態旅遊之管理與評估亦漸受到重視，為考量經濟、環境、生態、社會等面向，因此以整合性地思考海岸地區各層面的因素與問題，以達到海岸地區永續發展之目標。
本研究參考相關文獻以及國際間進行永續發展研究常用之DSR(Driving forces-State-Response)指標概念，建構七股地區生態旅遊永續發展之指標系統，研擬評估因子，為探討經濟、環境、生態、社會等各面向相互作用的動態性複雜的問題，故本研究選用系統動力學為工具，探討系統的結構與行為，並以回饋環路為基礎，即便缺乏數據，只要估計的參數落可信範圍內，模式仍可呈現系統趨勢，並以此模式進行管理之情境分析來評估管理之政策。
本研究因具許多不確定因子，故運用蒙地卡羅方法(Monte Carlo Method)進行多重政策分析，來探討系統行為所有的可能性，並以決策樹來協助決策者制定管理政策。

Ecotourism is a concept that is getting more and more attention worldwide. Chiku wetland has many functions and values, and its cultivation, salt industries, special coastal features and ecological resources, all significantly contribute to Chiku’s ecotourism development. It is of great importance to consider the local economy, environment, ecology, and society as interacting parts in the patchy whole that is ecotourism. In order to do so, this study used the well established DSR (Driving forces-State-Response) framework to build a sustainable ecotourism indicator system for the Chiku wetland. The System Dynamics method was chosen to understand system structure with causal-loop diagrams and system behavior in the long term with a dynamic simulation model. Lack of observational data, was compensated by sensitivity analysis, and other model verification techniques.
Finally, the Monte Carlo method was used to perform an exploratory multi-policy analysis. Its results were analyzed using decision tree analysis. It is hoped that these results can assist decision makers to plan management policies.

第一章　緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究流程 3
1.4 研究範圍 6
1.5 研究限制 8
第二章　文獻回顧 9
2.1 生態旅遊 9
2.1.1 生態旅遊發展與定義 10
2.1.2 七股及溼地生態旅遊相關研究 12
2.2 整合性海岸地區管理 14
2.2.1 整合性海岸地區管理概念 14
2.2.2 整合性海岸地區管理指標架構 16
2.3 系統動力學之應用 20
第三章　研究方法 22
3.1 整合性評估指標架構 22
3.2 系統動力學 24
3.2.1 系統動力學建模之主要元件 25
3.2.2 因果關係與因果回饋關係 27
3.2.3 系統動力學建模流程 29
3.3 蒙地卡羅法 31
3.4 決策樹 32
第四章　系統建置 36
4.1 研究範圍背景資料 36
4.2 永續生態旅遊之評估指標 39
4.3 建構量化模擬模式 41
4.3.1 模式架構 41
4.3.2 社會經濟子系統 44
4.3.3 環境狀態子系統 55
4.3.4 管理子系統 62
第五章　研究成果 66
5.1 模型驗證 66
5.2 零方案 71
5.3 多重政策與分析 75
5.4小結 86
第六章　結論與建議 88
6.1 結論 88
6.2未來研究建議 89
參考文獻 91
附錄一　量化模擬模式 STELLA 程式碼說明 97
附錄二　PEST參數校正表 108
口試委員建議與回覆表 109

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