降低淨水場原水有機物濃度是可以減少配水管網中微生物生長繁殖的結果，因為這種「後生長」或「再生長」的現象，有機碳為微生物生長的主要元素之一，因此若能處理及預測水中有機碳濃度在低於微生物所需濃度以下，即可有效控制配水管線中微生物後生長。
類神經網路屬於人工智慧重要的一環，為現今熱門科技研究及發展迅速的應用技術。類神經網路就如同人類的大腦一般，透過樣本或資料的訓練展現出學習、回想和歸納推演的能力。
本研究以兩座高級淨水場(以A及B表示)原水中生物有利用有機碳(AOC)濃度之變化為主軸，分別利用SPSS 17.0版與類神經網路系統中AutoNet(6.03)套裝軟體作線性迴歸分析及相關性分析來探討AOC濃度隨淨水場單元順序之水質變化。結果顯示因水源的不同會導致淨水場出水AOC濃度也不同，A淨水場之處理程序對AOC總去除率需至少達50%以上才能使A淨水場出水之AOC濃度降低至50 µg Acetate-C/L，但B淨水場處理AOC總去除率只需6.7%，出水即能降低至50 µg Acetate-C/L。
研究發現，利用不同統計軟體所演算出來的預測模式是有差距的，結果顯示利用逐步迴歸法求得的預測模式在誤差值和誤差百分比上就較強迫進入法和AutoNet法來的較差，而強迫進入法和AutoNet法在誤差值和誤差百分比上是相差不多，但是在R值相關性表現上則是以強迫進入法優於AutoNet法，不過這三種方法建立預測模式之R值都屬於高相關性。

Lowering the organic concentration in raw water at water treatment plants can reduce the growth and reproduction of microorganisms in water distribution system, because in the phenomenon of “post-growth” or “re-growth,” the organic carbon is a key element in microorganism growth. Thus, if it is possible to treat and predict the low concentration of organic carbon in treatment water which is necessary for microorganisms to grow, it is possible to effectively control the post-growth of microorganisms in the water distribution pipes.
Neural networks are important in artificial intelligence; it is a kind of applied technology that has become a subject of popular research and development. Neural networks are like human brains, which exhibit the abilities to learn, recall, summarize, and deduce based on samples or data training.
This study focuses on the changes in concentration of assimilable organic carbon (AOC) in two high-grade water treatment plants (represented as A and B), using SPSS 17.0 and neural network system AutoNet (6.03) suite programs to conduct linear regression analysis and correlation analysis to explore water quality changes in AOC concentration with the sequences at water purification plants. Conclusions show that different water sources would result in various AOC concentrations in the treatment water of water treatment plants. Plant A’s treatment process needs to remove at least 50% of the total AOC to reduce the output concentration to 50 µg Acetate-C/L in water, but Plant B only needs to remove 6.7% of the total AOC to reduce the output concentration to 50 µg Acetate-C/L.
This study finds that there are distinctions in the predictive models computed by different statistical software. Results present that the predictive model derived from the stepwise regression analysis was worse than that derived from the enter method and AutoNet in terms of error values and error ratios, while the enter method and AutoNet method showed similar error values and error ratios. However, in terms of R value correlation, the enter method was better than the AutoNet method, but the R values in predictive models established by these three methods were showing all high correlation.

摘要 I
總目錄 III
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 X
第一章 緒論 1
1-1前言 1
1-2研究緣起 1
1-3研究目的 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
2-1水體中有機物種類及性質 3
2-2水體中有機物去除方法 8
2-3天然有機物對淨水工程之影響 9
2-4配水管網水質之生物穩定性問題 10
2-4-1配水管網微生物生長情形 10
2-4-2配水管網微生物後(再)生長之影響因子 12
2-4-3配水管網微生物後(再)生長之控制方法 15
2-5水中生物可分解有機質之測定方法 16
2-5-1生物可分解溶解性有機碳(BDOC) 18
2-5-2生物可利用有機碳(AOC) 18
第三章 類神經網路方法 22
3-1類神經網路發展 22
3-2類神經網路簡介 23
3-3類神經網路理論 27
3-4類神經網路優缺點 34
3-5類神經網路之相關研究 37
第四章 實驗設備與方法 38
4-1實驗流程 38
4-2研究範疇 38
4-2-1 A場 38
4-2-2 B場 41
4-2-3採樣點位置與採樣頻率 42
4-3水樣水質項目與分析方法 43
4-3-1 AOC檢測分析方法 44
4-3-2 AOC菌種鑑定及特性分析 44
4-3-3 P17和NOX生長曲線與產率求得 50
4-3-4 AOC水樣處理分析方法 53
4-4統計分析軟體SPSS 55
4-4-1軟體SPSS簡介 55
4-4-2軟體SPSS功能 56
4-4-3軟體SPSS特點 58
4-5 GMDH演算法介紹 58
4-5-1 GMDH演算方法 59
4-5-2 AutoNet6.03軟體基本參數設定及說明 61
第五章 結果與討論 63
5-1 AOC之菌種生長曲線與產率值計算 63
5-2 A場與B場之AOC隨時間之濃度變化 68
5-2-1原水AOC比較 68
5-2-2 AOC濃度隨淨水程序採樣站之變化 72
5-2-3清水AOC比較 76
5-3 AutoNet解析 79
5-3-1基本參數的設定 79
5-3-1-1基本參數的設定 79
5-3-1-2最多運算的層數測試 87
5-3-1-3運算結果方程式 88
5-3-2本次研究數據分析(自2013/03至2013/05) 92
5-3-2-1研究數據運算結果 92
5-3-2-2歷年和本次研究數據比較 92
5-4 SPSS相關性解析 95
5-4-1歷年數據分析(2011-2012) 95
5-4-2本次研究數據分析(自2013/03至2013/05) 98
5-5 SPSS逐步迴歸法解析 99
5-5-1歷年數據分析(2011-2012) 99
5-5-2本次研究數據分析(自2013/03至2013/05) 100
5-6 SPSS強迫進入法解析 102
5-6-1歷年數據分析(2011-2012) 102
5-6-2本次研究數據分析(自2013/03至2013/05) 103
5-7預測模式比較及建立 106
5-7-1歷年數據比較(2011-2012) 106
5-7-2本次研究數據比較(自2013/03至2013/05) 107
5-7-3以強迫進入法的水質項目調整及簡易預測方程式建立 109
第六章 結論與建議 111
6-1結論 111
6-2建議 112
參考文獻 113

Allen, M.J. and Geldreich, E.E. (1977)“Distribution Line Sediments and Bacterial Regrowth”Proceedings, American Water Works Association – Water Quality Technology Conference, American Water Works Association, Kansas City, Mo, USA.
Allen, M.J., Taylor, R.H. and Geldreich, E.E. (1980)“The Occurrence of Microorganism in Water Main Encrustation”Journal of American Water Works Association, 72(1):614-625.
AWWARF (1990) Assessing and Controlling Bacterial Regrowth in Distribution Systems, AWWA Research Foundation and American Water Works Association, Denver, CO.
AWWARF (1994) Survey of Bromide in Drinking Water and Impacts on DBP Formation, AWWA Research Foundation and American Water Works Association, Denver, CO.
AWWARF (1996) Measurement of Biodegradable Organic Matter with Biofilm Reactors, AWWA Research Foundation and American Water Works Association, Denver, CO.
AWWARF (1998) Microbial Impact of Biological Filtration, AWWA Research Foundation and American Water Works Association, Denver, CO.
Bae, H., Kim, Y.J., (2006)“Decision Algorithm Based on Data Mining for Coagulant Type and Dosage in Water Treatment Systems”Water Science & Technology, 53:321-329.
Barber, L.B., Leenheer, J.A., Noyes, T.I. and Stiles, E.A., (2001)“Nature and Transformation of Dissolved Organic Matter in Treatment Wetlands”Environ. Sci. Technol, 35:4805-4816.
Baribeau, H., (2005)“Impact of Biomass on the Stability of HAAs and THMs on a Simulated Distribution System”Journal of American Water Works Association, 97(2):69-81.
Bois, F.Y., (1997)“Dynamic Modeling of Bacteria in a Pilot Drinking Water Distribution System”Water Research, 31:3146-3156.
Bozeman, (1996)“The Potential for Biofilm Growth in Water Distribution Systems” Water Research, 35(17):4063-4071.
Characklis, W.G. and Marashall, K.C. (1990)“Biofilms”John Wiley and Sons, New York, 796.
Christman, R.F., Norwood, D.L., Seo, Y. and Frimmel, F.H. (1989)“Oxidative Degradation of Humic Substances from Freshwater Environment”John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
Chu, C. Lu, C. Lee, C.M. (2005)“Effects of Inorganic Nutrients on the Growth of Heterotrophic Bacteria in Distributed Drinking Water”Journal of Environmental Management, 74(3):255-263.
Cipparone, L.A., Diehl, A.C. and Speitel Jr, G.E. (1997)“Ozoantion and BDOC Removal: Effect on Water Quality”Journal of American Water Works Association, 89(2):84-97.
Collins, A.G., Nix, S.J., Tasy, T.K., Gera, A., and Hopkins, M.A., (1990)“The Potential for Experst Systems in Water Utility Operation and Management”Journal of American Water Works Association, 82(9):44-51.
Corzo, G., Solomatine, D., (2007)“Knowledge-Based Modularization and Global Optimization of Artificial Neural Network in Hydrological Forecasting”Neural Network, 20(4):528-536.
Czerniczyniec, M., Farias, S., Magallanes, J., and Cicerone, D., (2007)“Arsenic(V) Adsorption onto Biogenic Hydroxyapatite：Solution Composition Effect”Water air Soil Pollution, 180:75-82.
Dukan, S., Levi, Y., Piriou, P., Guyon, F. and Villon, P. (1996)“Dynamic Modeling of Bacterial Growth in Drinking Water Networks” Water Research, 30(9):1991-2002.
Earhardt, K.B. (1980)“Chlorine – Resistant Coliform The Mumcie, Indiana, Experience”Water Quality Technology Conference, American Water Words Association, Miami Beach, FL, USA.
Edwards, G.A. and Amirtharajah, A. (1985)“Removal Color Caused by Humic Acids”Journal of American Water Works Association, 77(3):50-57.
Faust, S.D. and Alt, O.M. (1964)“Water Pollution by Organic Pesticids” Journal of American Water Works Association, 74:103-107.
Geldreich, E.E. (1996)“Biofilms in Water Distribution Systems”Microbial Quality of Water Supply in Distribution Systems, Lewis Publisher, Boca Raton, FL,USA.
Gibbs, R.A., Scutt, J.E., and Croll, B.T., (1993)“Assimilable Organic Carbon Concentrations and Bacterial Numbers. In a water Distribution” Water Science and Technology, 27(3-4):159-166.
Huck, P.M. (1990)“Measurement of Biodegradable Organic Matter and Bacterial Growth Potential in Drinking Water”Journal of American Water Works Association, 82(7):78-86
Huck, P.M. Zhang, S. and Price, M.L (1994)“BOM Removal During Biological Treatment :A Firstorder Model”Journal of American Water Works Association, 86(6):61-71.
Janssens, J.G., Meheus, J. and Dirickx, J. (1985) “Ozone Enhanced Biologoical Activated Carbon Filtration and Its Effect on Organic Matter Removal and in Particular on AOC Reduction”Water Science and Technology, 17:1055-1068.
Kaplan, L.A. and LeChevallier, M.W., (1993)“Assimilable Organic Carbon Measurement Techniques”Research Foundation and American Water Works Association, Denver,CO.
Kemmy, F.A., Fry, J.C. and Breach, R.A. (1989)“Development and Operational Implementation of a Modified and Simplified Method for Determination of Assimilable Organic Carbon (AOC) in Drinking Water”Water Science and Technology, 21(3):155-159.
Krasner, S.W., Croue, J.P., Buffle, J. and Perdue, E.M. (1996)“Three Approaches for Characterizing NOM” Journal of American Water Works Association, 88:66-79.
Langlais, B., Reckhow, D.A. and Brink, D.B. (1991)“Ozone in Water Treatment-Application and Engineering”Lewis Publisher.
LeCevallier, M.W., (1990)“Coliform Regrowth in Drinking Water : A Review”Journal of American Water Works Association, 82:74-86.
LeChevallier, M.W. (1999)“The Case for Maintaining a Disinfectant Residual”Journal of American Water Works Association, 91(1):86-94.
LeChevallier, M.W., (1993)“Examining the Relationship Between Iron Corrosin and the Disinfection of Biofilm Bacteria”Journal of American Water Works Association, 85:111-123.
LeChevallier, M.W., Babcock, T.M. and Lee, R.G. (1987)“Examination and Characterization of Distribution System Biofilms”Apple Envir Microbiology, 53(12):2714-2724.
LeChevallier, M.W., Becker, W.C., Schorr, P. and Lee, R.G. (1992)“Evaluating the Performance of Biologically Active rapid Filters” Journal of American Water Works Association, 84(4):136-146.
LeChevallier, M.W., Schulz, W. and Lee, R.G. (1991)“Bacteria Nutrient in Drinking Water” Apple Envir Microbiology, 57(3):857-862.
LeChevallier, M.W., Welch, N.J. and Smith, D.B. (1996)“Full-Scale Studies of Factors Related to Coliform Regrowth in Drinking Water” Apple Envir Microbiology, 62(7):2201-2211.
Liao, X. Chen, C. Wang, Z. Wan, R. Chang, C.H. Zhang, X. Xie, S. (2013) “Changes of Biomass and Bacterial Communities in Biological Activated Carbon Filters for Drinking Water Treatment”Process Biochemistry, 48(2):312-316.
Lu, C. Chu, C. (2005)“Effects of Acetic Acid on the Regrowth of Heterotrophic Bacteria in Distributed Drinking Water”World Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology, 21:989-998.
Lund, V. and Ormerod, K. (1995)“The Influence of Disinfection Process on Biofilm Formation in Water Distrubution” Water Research, 29(4):1013-1021.
Mathieu, L. (1992)“Matiere Organique Niodegradable et Stabilite Biologique des eaux au cours de leur Distribution”These de Universite Nancy, France.
McFeters, G.A. (1990)“Drinking Water Microbiology”
Minsky, M., and Papert, S., (1969).Perceptrons, Cambride, MIT Press.
Momba, M.N.B., (2000)“An Overview of Biofilm Formation in Distribution Systems and Its Impact on the Deterioration of Water Quality”Water SA, 26(1):59-66.
Munir, C. (1998)“Ultrafiltration and Microfiltration Handbook”Technomic, Lancaster.
Percival, S.L. (1998)“Review of Potable Water Biofilm in Engineered Systems”Journal of British Corrosion, 33(2):130-137.
PURNA C. Nayak, Y.R. SATYAJI Rao, K.P. Sudheer. (2006)“Groundwater Forcasting in a Shallow Aquifer Using Artificial Neural Network Approach”Water Resources Management, 20:77-90.
Rizzo, L. (2011)“Bioassays as a Tool for Evaluating Advanced Oxidation Processes in Water and Wastewater Treatment”Water Research, 45(15):4311-4340.
Saint-Donat, J., Bhat, N., and McAvoy, T.J., (1991)“Neural Net Based Model Predictive Control”International Journal of control, 54(6):1453-1468.
Saleh M. Al-Alawi, Sabah A. Abdul-Wahab, Charles S. Bakheit, (2008)“Combining Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Networks for more Accurate Predictions of Ground-Level Ozone”Environmental Modelling & Software, 23(4)：396-403.
Sarbatly, R.H.J. and Krishnaiah, D. (2007)“Free Chlorine Residual Content Within the Drinking Water Distribution System”International Journal of Physical Sciences, 2(8):196-201.
Schnitzer, R.W. (1976)“The Chemistry of Humic Substances”Environmental Biogeochemistry, Ann Arbor Science, MI.
Servais, P., Billen, G., Bouillot, P., and Benezet, M. (1992)“A Pilot Study of Biological GAC Filtration in Drinking Water Treatment”Journal. Water SRTAqua., 41(3):163-168.
Sharp, W.W., Pfeffer, J. and Morgan, M., (1991)“In situ Chlorine Decay Rate Testing”Proc. AWWARF/USEPA Conf. on Water Quality Modeling in Distribution System, Cincinnati, Ohio.
Thurman, E.M. (1985)“Amount of Organic Carbon in Natural Water” Organic Geochemistry of Natural Water, Junk Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherland, 15-17.
Thurman, E.M. and Malcolm, R.L. (1981)“Preparative Isolation of Aquatic Humic Substances”Environmental and Technology, 15:463-466.
Van der kooij, D. (1982)“Development and Application of Methods for Assessing the Biostability of Drinking Water and Materials in Contact with Drinking Water”KIWA Research and Consultancy.
Van der kooij, D. (1990)“Assimilable Organic Carbon (AOC) in Drinking Water”Drinking Water Microbiology. McFeters, G.A. New York, Springer-Verlag: 57-87.
Van der kooij, D., Hijnen, W.A.M. and Kruithf, F.C. (1989)“The Effect if Ozonation, Biological Filteration and Distribution on the Concentration on Easily Assimilable Organic Carbon (AOC) in Drinking Water”Ozone Science and Engineering 11:297-311.
Van der kooij, D., Visser, A. and Hijnen, W.A.M. (1982)“Determining the Concentration of Easily Assimilable Organic Carbon in Drinking Water”Journal of American Water Works Association, 74(10):540-545.
Van der kooij, D., Vrouwenvelder, H.S. and Veenendaal, H.R. (1995)“Kinetic Aspects of Biofilm Formation on Surfaces Exposed to Drinking Water” Water Science and Technology, 32(8):61-65.
Van der Wende E., Characklis W.G. and Smith, D.B. (1989)“Biofilms and Bacterial Drinking Water Quality” Water Research, 23:1311-1322.
Volk, C., Bell, K., Ibrahim, E., Verges, D., Amy, D., Amy, G. and LeChevallier, M. (2000)“Impact of Enhanced and Optimized Coagulation on Removal of Organic Matter and Its Biodegradable Fraction in Drinking Water” Water Research, 34(12):3247-3257.
Welscher, R.A.G., Schellart, J.A. and de Visser, P.M. (1998)“Experience with Fifteen Year of Drinking Water Distribution without a Chlorine Residual”Specialized Conference on Drinking Water Distribution with or without Disinfectant Residual, 28-30.
Xie, N., and Leung, H., (2005)“Blind Equalization Using a Predictive Radial Basis Function Neural Network”IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 16(3)：709-720.
Yang, B.M. Liu, J.K. Chien, C.C. Surampalli, R.Y. Kao, C.M. (2011)“Variations in AOC and Microbial Diversity in an Advanced Water Treatment Plant”Journal of Hydrology, 409(1-2):225-235.
Zurada, J.M., (1992)“Introduction to Artificial Neural Systems”PWS, Info Access Distribution Ptr Ltd., Singapore, 195-196.
Lou, J.C. Chang, T.W. and Huang C.E. (2009)“Effective Removal of Disinfection By-Products and Assimilable Organic Carbon: An Advanced Water Treatment System”Journal of Hazardous Materials, 172(2-3):1365-1371.
吳冠德，以類神經網路預測自來水場混凝加藥量及其影響因子之研究，國立臺灣大學環境工程學研究所博士論文，(2009)。
李念勳，應用類神經網路於非點源污染預測模式及預測採樣之研究，國立成功大學環境工程學系碩士論文，(2007)。
李泰毅，金門地區配水管網水質參數與微生物再生長之研究，國立臺灣大學公共衛生學院環境衛生研究所碩士論文，(2007)。
洪坤鈺，配水管網水質模式動力參數之研究，國立中興大學環境工程學系碩士論文，(2002)。
許瓊文，應用類神經網路模擬高雄都會區臭氧濃度趨勢變化之研究，國立中山大學環境工程研究所碩士論文，(2008)。
郭修志，自來水配水系統消毒副產物生成模式之研究，國立臺灣大學環境工程學研究所碩士論文，(2006)。
廖琇怡，高雄市臭氧特性與氣象因子之相關性探討，國立中山大學環境工程研究所碩士論文，(2005)。
賴文亮，各種淨水程序對生物可分解有機質及消毒副產物之控制，國立成功大學環境工程學系博士論文，(2002)。