本文遵循Lewis and Markiewicz (2009)的研究，改以泰勒法則出發，探討預期方式引入模型誤設之匯率模型下，隱含之實質匯率動態是否與實際資料之動態接近。本文之比較之標準為實質匯率變動率之波動度以及實質匯率與基本面變數(通膨率、相對產出缺口)之相關性。
在台灣與美國之實證研究結果中，模型誤設存在下所隱含之實質匯率相較於理性預期和無模型誤設下之學習機制模型，其波動度以及與變數間的相關性較接近真實資料。

Based on Lewis & Markiewicz (2009), the purpose of this paper is to explore if implied real exchange rate dynamics are similar to these obtained from observed data under a model with misspecification. The benchmarks in this paper are the volatility and correlation between real exchange rates and fundamental variables. Judging from the empirical results for both Taiwan and United State, this paper find that implied real exchange rate volatility and correlation obtained from the model with misspecification are closer to these obtained from actual data than the model with rational expectations and with learning but without misspecification.

論文審定書 i
致謝 ii
中文摘要 iii
英文摘要 iv
第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究動機 1
第二節、本文架構 2
第二章、文獻回顧 3
第一節、泰勒法則之相關文獻 3
第二節、預期具學習機制之相關文獻 7
第三章、理論模型 14
第一節、理性預期下實質匯率模型 14
第二節、無模型誤設且具學習機制下之實質匯率模型 16
第三節、模型誤設與部分學習機制(誤設人口比例固定不變) 18
第四節、模型誤設與部分學習機制(預測之係數固定不變) 20
第五節、模型誤設，誤設調整及學習機制下的實質匯率模型 22
第四章、實證結果分析 25
第一節、資料來源與處理 25
第二節、各假設下的實質匯率模型實證 26
第五章結論 35
參考文獻 37

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