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博碩士論文 etd-0518118-141435 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-0518118-141435
論文名稱
Title
廣告對低波動策略的不對稱影響
Asymmetric Effect of Advertising on Low-volatility Strategy
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
51
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2018-06-04
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2018-06-18
關鍵字
Keywords
低波動異常現象、彩券型偏好、廣告、低波動策略、投資人情緒、放空限制
Low volatility anomaly, Low volatility strategy, Advertising, Preferences for lottery-type stocks, Investor sentiment, Short-sale constraints
統計
Statistics
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中文摘要
Baker, Bradley, and Wurgler (2011)發現高波動度的股票報酬低於低波動度的股票報酬,將風險與報酬之間的負相關稱為“低波動異常現象(low-volatility anomaly) ”,行為財務學者指出現象產生的原因之一為投資人的彩券型偏好。理性投資人透過買進低波動度股票並且賣出高波動度股票,形成低波動策略。在相關領域中尚未有文獻探討廣告與投資人情緒對低波動異常現象的影響。
本研究探討廣告對低波動策略報酬的影響,以及樂觀與悲觀對低波動策略報酬的影響。本研究結論如下:
1. 高廣告投資組合的低波動策略報酬顯著高於低廣告投資組合,表示廣告曝光度越高的股票確實捕捉到投資人的注意力,高廣告高波動度的股票比低廣告高波動度的股票更吸引彩券型偏好投資人的注意,投資人對高廣告股票需求大幅增加使得股票價格過度反應,加上市場上存在放空限制,無法即時修正價格,因而增強低波動異常現象,導致低波動策略報酬越高。
2. 高廣告投資組合的低波動策略報酬在樂觀情緒期間高於悲觀期間,樂觀的投資人情緒使得好消息快速傳遞,造成彩券型偏好投資人大量購買高波動度股票,使得股票價格過度反應,下期價格回落,低波動策略報酬越高。
3. 投資人情緒對高廣告投資組合的低波動策略報酬具有顯著的正向預測能力,投資人情緒樂觀便增加賭博的動機,積極投資彩券型股票,造成股票價格過度反應。總體而言,投資人越樂觀,低波動策略報酬就越高。
Abstract
Baker et al. (2011) show the stocks with high volatility have lower return than the stocks with low volatility, and the negative correlation between risk and return is called “low-volatility anomaly”. Behavioral finance scholars point out that one of the reasons for the low-volatility anomaly is investors prefer lottery-type stock. Rational investors form low-volatility strategies by buying lower-volatility stocks and selling higher-volatility stocks. However, there is no related literatures to discuss the relationship between advertising and low-volatility strategies.
This research indicates the influence of advertising on the low-volatility strategies, and the influence of optimism/pessimism on the low-volatility strategies. The results of this study are as follows:
1. Return on low-volatility strategies with high advertising exposure portfolios are significantly higher than return on low advertising exposure portfolios. The stocks with high advertising exposure capture the attention from individual investors. In high-volatility portfolios, compared with the stocks which are low advertising exposure, the stocks with high advertising exposure can make investors who prefer stocks with lottery-type pay more attention on it. Investor's demand for high-advertising stocks has increased greatly, making stock prices overreact. In addition, there is a short-sale constraint in the market and it is not possible to correct the price immediately. Consequently, it makes the low-volatility anomaly stronger, and the low-volatility strategy profitable.
2. Return on low-volatility strategy with high advertising exposure portfolio is higher in optimistic sentiment than in pessimism sentiment. In optimistic sentiment of high advertising portfolio, for the high-volatility portfolio, investors with high sentiment make good news transfer quickly. Investors purchase many high-volatility stocks and price of stocks with high-volatility will fall in the next period.
3. Investor sentiment has a significant positive predictive ability for low-volatility strategies profit from high advertising portfolios. The more optimistic the sentiment of investor is, the more incentive for them to gamble. Investors buy a lot of lottery-type stocks and lead to overreaction of price with lottery-type stocks. In general, investors with optimistic sentiment make more profitable in low-volatility strategy.
目次 Table of Contents
論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 v
圖次 vii
表次 viii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究架構 3
第二章 文獻回顧 4
第一節 低波動異常現象 4
第二節 投資人關注度-廣告 6
第三節 投資人情緒 8
第三章 假說建立 10
第四章 研究方法 12
第一節 投資組合的建構 12
第二節 變數說明 14
第三節 研究模型建立 15
第五章 實證結果與分析 18
第一節 樣本資料 18
第二節 廣告投資組合家數統計 19
第三節 敘述統計 21
第四節 迴歸結果分析 24
第五節 投資人情緒的迴歸結果分析 27
第六章 結論與貢獻 36
第一節 結論 36
第二節 研究貢獻 38
第三節 未來研究方向 39
參考文獻 40
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