本文探討匯率變動時，台灣出口產業的匯率轉嫁效果。資料選取以新台幣計價的出口物價指數，含總指數共八個產業，以1991年1月至2012年12月共263筆的月資料，利用門檻迴歸去檢定匯率變動率較大與匯率變動率較小時，匯率轉嫁效果是否因而有所差異。實證結果指出，台灣出口產業普遍存在匯率部分轉嫁的情形。並且顯示台灣出口產業總指數、化學業、電腦產業存在匯率轉嫁不對稱效果。即表示出口產業整體、化學業、電腦產業在匯率變動程度不同時，會有不同程度的匯率轉嫁效果。

This paper discusses the relationship between the changes in exchange rate and the effects of exchange pass-through of Taiwan’s export industry. Data are selected to NTD-dominated export price index. With general index, there are eight industrial export indexes. With monthly data from January 1991 to December 2012, there are 263 monthly data in total. Using threshold regression to test whether there are differences between the level of the changes in exchange rate and the effects of exchange pass-through. The empirical results pointed out that there is the incomplete pass- through in Taiwan’s export industry. There is an exchange rate asymmetry in the general index of Taiwan’s export industry, chemical industry and computer industry. That is to say there are different effects in exchange pass-through when the degree of the changes in exchange rate varies in export industry, chemical industry and computer industry.

目錄
論文審定書 ............................................................................................................ i
中文摘要 ............................................................................................................... ii
英文摘要 ............................................................................................................... iii
目錄 ...................................................................................................................... iv
表次 ...................................................................................................................... v
第壹章 緒論 ........................................................................................................... 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 ........................................................................................... 1
第二節 研究架構 ..................................................................................................... 3
第貳章 理論探討與文獻回顧 ..................................................................................... 4
第一節 匯率轉嫁的議題 ........................................................................................... 4
第二節 國外文獻探討 .............................................................................................. 6
第三節 國內文獻探討 .............................................................................................. 8
第叁章 實證模型與研究方法 .................................................................................... 10
第一節 變數與資料來源 .......................................................................................... 10
第二節 研究方法 .................................................................................................... 11
一、DF 單根檢定 ................................................................................................... 11
二、ADF 單根檢定 ................................................................................................. 12
三、Q 檢定(Q-test) ................................................................................................. 13
四、決定落後期數 ................................................................................................... 13
五、門檻迴歸模型 ................................................................................................... 14
第三節 實證模型與設定 ........................................................................................... 16
第肆章 實證結果與分析 ........................................................................................... 19
第一節 單根檢定 ..................................................................................................... 19
第二節 未設門檻的迴歸方程式 ................................................................................. 19
第三節 門檻迴歸模型實證 ........................................................................................ 21
第伍章 結論與建議 .................................................................................................. 28
參考文獻 ................................................................................................................ 29
一、 中文部份 ........................................................................................................ 29
二、 英文部份 ........................................................................................................ 30

一、 中文部份

吳中書(1995)，『台灣進口物價匯率轉嫁效果之探討』，開放總體經濟論文集，頁43-61。
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劉宗欣及張銘仁(2000)，『進口物價的匯率轉嫁與不對稱性：台灣的實證研究』，經濟論文，第二十八卷第四期，頁369-396。
王國樑、林淑芬(2000)，台灣中游石化業進口價格匯率轉嫁彈性之探討，經濟論文,28(1),頁97-126。
李健強（2006），〈金融發展、經濟成長與通貨膨脹的門檻效果〉，《台灣經濟預測與政策》，第36卷，第2期，77-113。
黃恩恩、藍青玉、郭炳伸(2007)，菜單成本與不對稱匯率轉嫁－以台灣進口物價為例，經濟論文,第35卷,頁439-472。
吳中書、林柏君(2010)，「通貨膨脹與匯率轉嫁－以台灣進口物價為例」，第十一屆全國實證經濟學研討會，輔仁大學經濟學系。



二、 英文部份

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