自工業革命開始，人類對地球的影響已經隨著時間加劇，人口每年持續增高，但換來的是，許多資源枯竭的問題逐漸浮現，由國際農糧組織2013年的報告，有將近30%的捕獲量是屬於過度捕撈，對此，我們必須思考一種有效的管理工具來解決此問題。許多文獻上支持建立海洋保護區(Marine Protected Areas;以下簡稱MPAs)在魚群產量上之效用優於傳統上的漁業管理，MPAs是一種漁業資源保護的概念，透過完善地棲息地保護，給予魚群存量穩定的回復效果，此外也能提供學術以及觀光效益。
本文模型建構將海洋劃分為兩區域，一為可捕獲區，漁民可在此區進行捕獲活動，另一區則為禁捕區(no-take zone)，保留原本棲息地原貌，利用原生環境促進魚群存量生長，透過溢出效果(spillover effect)增進可捕獲區之捕獲率。另外，本文將探討在利潤極大化以及開放式漁場模型中，針對海底環境以及捕撈方式等因素加入環境上的不確定性因子，以及將捕獲率外生化之效益。
結果表明，在利潤極大化模型底下，雖然魚群存量會隨著保護區大小增加而趨減，但是仍然處於永續經營效果，然而在漁民捕獲量之中，隨著保護區大小增加，在面對環境不確定性因素影響下，能達到穩定漁民捕獲量的效果。接著，在公開漁場模型裡頭，我們將捕獲率外生化，結果顯示，若保護區大小處於高水準中，在每種不確定性以及捕獲率情況下，魚群回復能力都優於低水準。

Negative impact caused by human has been accelerated since the Industrial Revolution., Global population growth keeps increasing annually, which then leads to depleting of natural resources.we pay a heavy price for depletion of natural resources, According to the report of Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations in 2013, about 30% of assessed fish stocks are over exploited. As a result, we have to find an effective management approach to solve the problem. Many studies suggest that establishment of marine reserves(MPAs) leads to higher fishery yields than conventional management. MPAs protects fishery resources. By protecting the habitat well, fish stock will stably rebuild and it will also enhance benefits of academic research and tourism.
This study divides sea into two areas, One allows for fishing, and the other is no-take zone which means all fishing and extraction are prohibited.one of zone for no-take which all fishing and extraction are prohibited, The latter one retains the original habitat, promotes the stock of fish stocks, and increase fishery yields through spillover effect. Besides, this study investigate the effect in profit maximization model and open access with environment uncertainty and exogenous exploitation rate as proportion of the exploitable fish.
Simulation results suggest that the fish stock will be decrease with increase of MPAs size in profit maximization model, while it is still under sustainable development. Despite uncertainty the increase of MPAs size can stabilize the fish yield. In the open access model, We assume exploitation rate as an exogenous variable, The results show that in each case of uncertainty and expoitation rate, the fish stock will rebuild better when the size of the protected area is at a high level than which is at a low level.

謝 辭 i
摘 要 ii
Abstract iii
目 錄 v
第一章、緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 1
第二章、背景與文獻回顧 4
第一節 海洋保護區之發展 4
第三節 設置海洋保護區的潛力 6
第四節 文獻探討 7
第三章、理論模型與研究方法 10
第一節 生物成長模型 10
第二節 加入環境不確定性以及保護區的動態生物模型 10
第三節 利潤極大化模型 11
第四節 捕獲率外生化的開放式漁場 13
第四章、實證模擬分析 15
第一節 模擬分析說明 15
第二節 具有不確定性以及MPAs之模擬分析 16
第三節 開放式漁場模擬分析 17
第五章、結論 21
第六章、文獻參考 23

一、中文部分

1、邵廣昭，2000，還給海洋生物一個真正安全的家，海洋保護區－許海洋生物一個安全的家，《海洋保護區之規劃與推動國際研討會手冊》，P. 5-7，中央研究院動物研究所。
2、邵廣昭，2011，台灣海洋保護區的現况與挑戰，《海洋事務與政策評論》，創刊號，P.65-90。
3、林宜萱，2014，海洋保護區的漁業管理之模擬分析，國立中山大學經濟學系碩士論文。
4、陳欣榮，1997，建立我國海洋保護區體系之初步研究，國立中山大學海洋環境工程研究所碩士論文。
5、陳又誠，2008，不確定性因素下設置海洋保護區之效益分析，國立中山大學經濟學系碩士論文。
6、陳安成，2011，整合漁業與海洋環境因子劃設海洋保護區之研究—以台灣北方三島海域為例，國立海洋大學環境生物與漁業科學系碩士論文。

二、 英文部分

1.Dudley, N., 2008. “Guidelines for applying protected area management categories,” Gland, Switzerland:IUCN.
2.Gordon, R.M., 1979. “The Optimal Management of Transboundary Renewable Resources,” The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d'Economique, Vol.12, No.3, P.355-376.
3.Grafton, R.Q., T. Kompas, and P. V. Ha, 2006.“ The economic payoffs from marine reserves: resource rents in a stochastic environment,” Economic Record, Vol.82, P.469-480.
4.Gouhier, T.C., F. Guichard, and B. A. Menge, 2013.“Designing effective reserve networks for nonequilibrium metacommunities,” Ecological Applications, 23(6), P.1488-1503.
5.Hannesson, R., 1998.“Marine Reserves: What Would They Accomplish? ,” Marine Resource Economics, Vol.13, P.159-170
6.Halpern, B.S. and R. R. Warner, 2003. “Matching marine reserve design to reserve objectives,” Philosophical Transactions Royal Society B, 270(1527), P.1871-1878.
7.Hilborn, R., K. Stokes, J. J. Maguire, T. Smith, L. W. Botsford, M. Mangel, J. Orensanz, A. Parma, J. Rice, J. Bell, K. L. Cochrane, S. Garcia, S. J. Hall, G. P. Kirkwood, K. Sainsbury, G. Stefansson and C. Walters, 2004.“When can marine reserves improve fisheries management?,” Ocean & Coastal Management, 47, P.197-205.
8.Harrison, H.B., D. H. Williamson, R. D. Evans, G. R. Almany, S. R. Thorrold, G. R. Russ, K. A. Feldheim, L. van Herwerden, S. Planes, M. Srinivasan, M. L. Berumen, and G. P. Jones, 2012.“Larval export from marine reserves and the recruitment benefit for fishand fisheries,” Current Biology, Vol. 22, P.1023-1028.
9.Jennings, S., T. Dinmore, D. Duplisea, K. Warr and J. Lancaster, 2001. “Trawling disturbances can modify benthic production process, ” Journal of Animal Ecology 70, P.459-475.
10.Lubchrnco, J.L., S. R. Plaumbi, S. D. Gaines and S. Andelman, 2003.“Plugging a hole in the ocean : the emerging science of marine reserves,” Ecological Applications, 13(1) , P. 3-7.
11.Lester, S.E., B. S. Halpern, K. Grorud-Colvert, J. Lubchenco, B. I. Ruttenberg, S. D. Gaines, S. Airame, and R. R. Warner, 2009.“Biologicaleffects within no-take marine reserves: a global synthesis,” Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol.384, P.33-46.
12.Roberts, C.M., J. A. Bohnsack, F. Gell, J. P. Hawkins and R. Goodridge, 2001.“Effects of Marine Reserves on Adjacent Fisheries,” Science, Vol.294, P.1920-1923
13.Rodwell, L.D., E. B. Barbier, C. M. Roberts and T. R. McClanahan , 2002.“A Model of Tropical Marine Reserve Fishery Linkages,” Natural Resource Modeling, Vol.15, P.453-486.
14.Roberts, C.M., J. P. Hawkins and F. R. Gell, 2005.“The role of marine reserves in achieving sustainable fisheries,” Philosophical Transactions Royal Society B, 360(1453), P.123-132.
15.Schaefer, M.B., (1957),“Some considerations of population dynamics and economics in relation to the management of the commercial marine fisheries,” Journal of the Fisheries Research Bourd of Canada, 14, P.669-81.
16.Satoshi, Y., J. Sarah, R. Q. Grafton, T. Kompas, 2015.“Are marine reserves and harvest control rules substitutes or complements for rebuilding fisheries?,” Resource and Energy Economics, Vol.40, P.1-18.
17.White, C., B. E. Kendall, S. Gaines, D. A. Siegel and C. Costello, 2008.“ Marine reserve effects on fishery profit,”Ecology Letters, 11(4), P.370-379.

三、 網路資料文獻部分

1、國際自然保護聯盟, International Union for Conservation of Nature , IUCN, https://www.iucn.org/
2、生物多樣性公約, Convention on Biological Diversity, CBD, https://www.cbd.int/
3、瀕危野生動植物國際貿易公約, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, CITES, https://www.cites.org/
4、世界永續發展高峰會議, World Summit on Sustainable Development , WSSD, http://www.un.org/events/wssd/