過往關於政府公共債務與社會支出相關性之研究觀點各異，對此，曾有學者表示，應用靜態相關性不足以解釋前揭二變數於時間域與頻率域聯動性之關係。有鑑於此，本研究採取動態波頻分析來檢視政府公共債務及社會支出間之動態相關性。
本研究以OECD會員國為研究樣本，從中選取1980年至2010年資料較完整之13個國家為研究對象。首先，透過縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型檢視變數間是否存在異質性與相關性的改變；其次，藉由小波相關分析檢測研究對象之動態相關性，以瞭解研究對象之政府公共債務與社會支出於時間域與頻率域之變化。
於縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型中，本研究發現兩變數間確實存在平滑移轉效果與異質性變化；而透過小波相關性分析，更發現兩變數間於過去30年來確實存在不穩定且動態變化的現象，且該二變數間之短期共移關係較長期共移關係緊密。

There’re different views about government debt and social spending in previous studies, and some scholars indicate that it’s not enough to apply static correlation analysis to explain the correlation between the above two variables in the aspects of time and frequency. As a result, the study applies dynamic frequency analysis to examine the dynamic correlation between government debt and social spending.
The samples are selected from OECD member countries, and the chosen countries are those with more completed data from 1980 to 2010. First, the study uses PSTR model to examine whether the heterogeneity and correlation exist between the two variables or not. Second, wavelet coherency analysis is applied to analyze the dynamic correlation of the samples to understand the changes between government debt and social spending in the aspects of time and frequency.
In the PSTR model, smooth transition and heterogeneity between government debt and social spending are found. Through wavelet coherence analysis, the study finds that instability and dynamic changes exist between government debt and social spending, and the co-movement between the two variables are more intensive in short-term period than in long-term period.

摘要.... i
Abstract ii
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究範圍與限制 2
第二章 文獻回顧 3
第一節 公共債務理論 3
第二節 公共債務與社會支出關係 4
第三節 過去文獻研究方法回顧 11
第三章 研究理論與方法 13
第一節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型 13
第二節 小波相關性分析 19
第四章 實證結果 23
第一節 縱橫平滑移轉效果說明 24
第二節 小波相關分析前測結果 32
第三節 公共債務與社會福利支出共移現象說明 37
第五章 結論與建議 43
第六章 參考文獻 45

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