自2008 年以來，台灣外來直接投資佔GDP 的比例從2008 年的1.3%下降至2015 年的0.46%。本文以小型開放的動態隨機一般均衡模型，研究台灣外來直接投資波動對總體經濟的影響。研究結果發現，當外來直接投資佔GDP 之比例從0.8%調降至0.52%時，會影響總產出下降約1%。若此衝擊為永久性，則總產出在新穩定狀態時相對於原穩定狀態時下降約0.3%。當外來直接投資對出口部門的技術產生較大的外溢效果時，對總產出、總消費、總投資以及總所得的負面總體經濟影響就會愈大。透過量化分析發現，從2008 年至2016 年外來直接投資的下降趨勢會導致總產出每年平均下降約0.08%。

Since 2008, the foreign direct investment (FDI) as a share of GDP has largely declined in Taiwan from 1.3% in 2008 to 0.46% in 2015. This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of FDI fluctuations in Taiwan, using a small-open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. It finds that when FDI as a share of GDP decline by 0.28 percentage points, the impact output falls by 1%. If such a decline become permanent, output declines by 0.3% in the new steady state relative to the steady state without such a decline. When FDI has a bigger spillover effect on technology in the exporting sector, the negative macroeconomic effects on output, consumpution, investment and income are amplified. Quantitative analysis finds that the decline of FDI from 2008 to 2016 leads to an average decrease of output by 0.08% per year.

論文審定書. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i
摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
第1 章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第2 章文獻回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
第3 章模型設立. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1 家計單位. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1.1 消費. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1.2 勞動. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1.3 投資. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2 廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.2.1 國內商品生產部門. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.2.2 出口部門. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.3 政府. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.4 市場結清. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
第4 章參數設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4.1 引用參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
4.2 台灣統計資料. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.3 自行假設. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.4 穩定均衡狀態求得. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
第5 章模擬分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5.1 模擬短暫性衝擊的效果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5.2 模擬永久性衝擊的效果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5.3 模擬外來直接投資對出口部門的技術所產生之外溢效果. . . . . . . 18
5.4 量化台灣從2008 年至2016 年外來直接投資波動對GDP 的影響. . . 19
第6 章結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
附錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
A. 最適化條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
B. 穩定均衡條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
C. 線性化方程式. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

管中閔、印永翔、姚睿、黃朝熙、徐之強、陳宜廷(2010). 臺灣動態隨機一般均衡
模型建立與政策評估. 行政院經濟建設委員會98 年度委託研究計劃, 台灣經濟計
量學會.
謝育霖(2010). 外人來台直接投資影響因素探討: 以考量產業及ECFA 因素為例. 國
立政治大學經濟學研究所碩士論文.
鄭名哲(2015). 台灣外人直接投資的決定因素1990-2014. 國立成功大學國際企業
研究所碩士論文.
李枒珍(2016). 流通資金的總體政策問題: 以台灣為例. 國立中山大學經濟學研究
所碩士論文.
翁郁寬(2016). 外人直接投資對台灣產業產出與就業的影響: GVAR 模型的運用. 國
立成功大學經濟學研究所碩士論文.
林建甫(2016). 正視台灣無法吸引FDI 的事實. 臺灣經濟研究月刊, 39(2):8–10.
Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., and Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and Economic
Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets. Journal of International Economics,
64(1):89–112.
Alvarado, R., Iñiguez, M., and Ponce, P. (2017). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic
Growth in Latin America. Economic Analysis and Policy, 56:176–187.
Anwar, S. and Nguyen, L. P. (2010). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in
Vietnam. Asia Pacific Business Review, 16(1-2):183–202.
Arısoy, I. (2012). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Total Factor Productivity
and Economic Growth in Turkey. Journal of Developing Areas, 46(1):17–29.
Azman-Saini, W., Law, S. H., and Ahmad, A. H. (2010). FDI and Economic Growth:
New Evidence on the Role of Financial Markets. Economics Letters, 107(2):211–213.
Banco Santander (2016). Santander Trade Portal Taiwan: Foreign Investment. URL
https://en.portal.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/taiwan/foreign-investment.
Berg, A., Gottschalk, J., Portillo, R., and Zanna, L.-F. (2010). The Macroeconomics of
Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios. IMF Working Paper 10/160. International
Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
Borensztein, E., Gregorio, J. D., and Lee, J.-W. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment
Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1):115–135.
Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., and Fisher, J. (2004). Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences.
Journal of Economic Theory, 115(1):89–117.
Carkovic, M. V. and Levine, R. (2002). Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate
Growth? In Moran, T. H., Graham, E. M., and Blomström, M., editors, Does Foreign
Direct Investment Promote Development?, chapter 8, pages 195–220. Center for
Global Development.
Caves, R. E. (1971). International Corporations: The Industrial Economics of Foreign
Investment. Economica, 38(149):1–27.
Forte, R. and Moura, R. (2013). The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on the Host
Country’s Economic Growth: Theory and Empirical Evidence. The Singapore Economic
Review, 58(3):1–27.
Gunby, P., Jin, Y., and Reed, W. (2017). Did FDI Really Cause Chinese Economic Growth?
A Meta-Analysis. World Development, 90(C):242–255.
Hansen, H. and Rand, J. (2006). On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in Developing
Countries. The World Economy, 29(1):21–41.
Hymer, S. H. (1960). The International Operations of National Firms: A Study of Foreign
Direct Investment. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Li, X. and Liu, X. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An Increasingly
Endogenous Relationship. World Development, 33(3):393–407.
Lipinsky, F., Ross, K., Tashu, M., Vtyurina, S., and Fenochietto, R. (2015). IMF Country
Report 15/134. International Monetary Fund.
Liu, Z. and Spiegel, M. M. (2015). Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions
in a Small Open Economy. Investigacion Economica, 63(2):298–324.
Romer, P. (1993). Idea Gaps and Object Gaps in Economic Development. Journal of
Monetary Economics, 32(3):543–573.
Romero, J. (2012). Inversión Extranjera Directa Y Crecimiento Económico En México:
1940-2011. Investigacion Economica, 71(282):109–147.
Sen, H. (1998). Different Arguments for and against the Role and Impact of Foreign Direct
Investment on the Development of Developing Countries: An Overview. Journal of
Economics and Administrative Sciences, 13(1):181–190.
Shen, W., Yang, S.-C. S., and Zanna, L.-F. (2018). Government Spending Effects in Low-
Income Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 133:201–219.
Sims, C. A. (2002). Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models. Computational Economics,
20(1-2):1–20.
Smets, F. and Wouters, R. (2005). Comparing Shocks and Frictions in US and Euro Area
Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics,
20(2):161–183.
Stockman, A. C. and Tesar, L. L. (1995). Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model
of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements. The American Economic
Review, 85(1):168–185.
Teo, W. L. (2002). Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the
Taiwanese Economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2):194–231.
UNCTAD (2017). UNCTADstat. Foreign Direct Investment: Inward and Outward Flows
and Stock.
Vernon, R. (1966). International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80(2):190–207.
World Bank (2018). Economy Rankings. URL http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings.
Zhang, K. H. (2001). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth in
China? Economics of Transition, 9(3):679–693.