台灣近年來面臨資本流入的問題，資金進入會產生匯率升值，對開放經濟體的出口造成傷害。這篇論文主要是建構小型開放經濟體模型，政府執行兩種資本控制政策對經濟體的影響。政府可以透過限制資本流動或管理匯率制度進行資本控制，在資金流入台灣之後，限制資本流動讓升值壓力增加，傷害貿易型產出；管理匯率制度較無升值壓力，卻傷害總產出，兩種政策在各經濟變數上有不同影響，政府應因時制宜的管理資金來穩定經濟體。

As a small open economy with a relatively open capital account, Taiwan often faces irregular capital inflows, resulting from 1) remittance from factor income of Taiwanese residents and profits of overseas companies and 2) expansionary monetary policy of foreign countries. This paper presents a small open DSGE model, calibrated to the Taiwanese economy, to study the macroeconomic effects of capital inflows. It also examines two policies that aim to control the real appreciation from capital inflows. It finds that increasing the degree of capital mobility and a more managed exchange rate regime are both effective in reducing the magnitudes of real appreciation in response to capital inflows. Both policies, however, have negative effects on the economy in terms of lower output, investment, and consumption.

論文審定書. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
中文摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
英文摘要. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
第1 章緒論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
第2 章文獻回顧. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
第3 章模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.1 家計單位. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.2 廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2.1 非貿易型廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2.2 貿易型廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.3 政府. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.4 央行. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.5 市場結清. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
第4 章參數. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
第5 章分析. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5.1 基準模型. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
5.2 模擬資本流動開放程度的不同. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
5.3 模擬匯率制度不同. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
第6 章結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
附錄. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
A.1 最適化條件. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
A.2 穩定狀態. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
A.3 線性化. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
英文文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
中文文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

圖目錄
圖1 1990 年到2014 年國際金融業務資產負債表中的負債-對非金融機
構存款. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
圖2 外國流入資金衝擊效果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
圖3 不同資金流動程度下的衝擊效果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
圖4 不同匯率制度下的衝擊效果. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
表目錄
表1 各項參數值. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

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