近年來臺灣政府積極發展觀光產業，但在 2016 下半年面臨到來臺 陸客銳減導致觀光外匯收入跟著下降的情況，本篇論文建構兩部門的 小型開放經濟體，以動態隨機一般均衡模型來模擬臺灣的觀光外匯收 入減少時對總體經濟的影響。發現當觀光外匯收入減少時會使總產出 有些許下降，且在偏向固定匯率制度下產出受到的影響較大;在勞工 替代彈性較大時產出受到的影響較小。若政府補貼觀光客，雖然有助 於提升觀光產業的產出，但其成效很小，且由於補貼需由舉債支出， 其日後的財政調整對總體經濟有負面的影響，使得一般產業和總產出 大幅下降。

In recent years, the Taiwanese government has actively promoted the tourism industry, but the decline of tourists from China, starting from the second half of 2016, led to a sharp decline in tourism receipts. This paper constructs a small open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, calibrated to Taiwanese economy, to study the macroeconomic effects of tourism receipt fluctuations. It finds that the decline of tourism receipts has negative effect on total output. A managed exchange rate regime, which does not allow the exchange rate to depreciate in response to the tourist receipts decline has bigger negative effect on total output. When the elasticity of substitution between labor of two sectors is higher, the negative macroeconomic effects can be mitigated. We also investigate the effect of the tourist subsidy policy, and find that although it helps the tourism industry, the effectiveness of the policy is small. As the subsidy is financed by government debt, fiscal adjustments in later periods can lower overall output.

口試委員會審定書..................................... i
摘要............................................. ii
Abstract........................................... iii
第1章 緒論....................................... 1
第2章 文獻回顧..................................... 3
第3章 模型設立..................................... 5
3.1 家計單位.................................. 5
3.1.1 在地居民.............................. 5
3.1.2 外國觀光客 ............................ 7
3.2 廠商..................................... 7
3.2.1 觀光旅遊業之廠商 ........................ 8
3.2.2 一般產業之廠商.......................... 9
3.3 政府..................................... 9
3.4 央行..................................... 10
3.5 市場總合與市場結清 ........................... 11
第4章 參數設定與模型解............................... 12
第5章 模擬分析..................................... 14
5.1 基準模型.................................. 14
5.2 模擬不同的勞工替代彈性之影響..................... 15
5.3 模擬央行不同的匯率制度之影響..................... 15
5.4 模擬補貼觀光客政策之效果 ....................... 16
第6章 結論....................................... 18
參考文獻.......................................... 26
附錄............................................. 28
A.1最適化條件.................................. 28
A.2穩定條件................................... 33
A.3線性化方程式 ................................ 37

Berg, A., Gottschalk, J., Portillo, R., Zanna, L.-F., July 2010. The macroeconomics of medium-term aid scaling-up scenarios. IMF Working Paper 10/160.
Brau, R., Lanza, A., Pigliaru, F., 2003. How Fast are the Tourism Countries Growing? The Cross-Country Evidence. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei No.85.
Chang, J.-J., Hung, H.-W., 2016. Trade unions, unemployment, economic growth, and income inequality. Macroeconomic Dynamics 20, 404–428.
Chang, J.-J., Lu, L.-J., Hu, S.-W., 2011. Congestion externalities of tourism, dutch disease and optimal taxation: Macroeconomic implications. Economic Record 87 (267), 90– 108.
Chao, C.-C., Hazari, B. R., Laffargue, J.-P., Sgro, P. M., Yu, E. S. H., 2006. Tourism, dutch disease and welfare in an open dynamic economy. The Japanese Economic Review 57 (4), 501–515.
Chao, C.-C., Hazari, B. R., Laffargue, J.-P., Sgro, P. M., Yu, E. S. H., 2008. Tourism, jobs, capital accumulation and the economy: A dynamic analysis. Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development: Macroeconomic Models and Empirical Methods, 105–123.
Copeland, B. R., 1991. Tourism, welfare and de-industrialization in a small open economy. Economica 58 (232), 515–529.
Davis, S., Presno, I., 2014. Capital controls as an instrument of monetary policy.
Davis, S., Presno, I., 3 2016. Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy.
Hazari, B. R., A-Ng, 1993. An analysis of tourists’ consumption of non-traded goods and services on the welfare of the domestic consumers. International Review of Economics and Finance 2 (1), 43–58.
Hazari, B. R., Nowak, J.-J., Sahli, M., Zdravevski, D., 2003. Tourism and regional immis- erization. Pacific Economic Review 8 (3), 269–278.
Hazari, B. R., Sgro, P. M., 1995. Tourism and growth in a dynamic model of trade. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development 4 (2), 243–252.
Liu, Z., Spiegel, M. M., 2015. Optimal monetary policy and capital account restrictions in a small open economy. IMF Economic Review 63 (2), 298–324.
Luzzi, G. F., Flückiger, Y., 2003. Tourism and international trade: Introdution. Pacific Economic Review 8 (3), 239–243.
Mathieson, A., Wall, G., 1982. Tourism: Economic, Physical, and Social Impacts. Long- man.
42
Nowak, J.-J., Sgro, P. M., Sahli, M., 2003. Tourism, trade and domestic welfare. Pacific Economic Review 8 (3), 245–258.
Pearce, D., 1989. Tourist Development. Longman Pub Group.
Rotemberg, J. J., 1982. Sticky prices in the united states. The Journal of Political Economy 90 (6), 1187–1211.
Sequeira, T. N., Campos, C., 2005. International Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei No.141.
Shen, W., Zanna, L.-F., Yang, S. S., 2015. Government spending effects in low-income countries. IMF working Paper 15/286, International Monetary Fund.
Sims, C. A., 2001. Solving linear rational expectations models. Journal of Computational Economics 20 (1-2), 1–20.
Teo, W. L., 2009. Estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the tai- wanese economy. Pacific Economic Review 14 (2), 194–231.
World Travel & Tourism Council, 2017. Travel and Tourism Economic Impact 2017, United Kingdom.
Yang, S. C., Traum, N., 2015. When does government debt crowd out investment? Journal of Applied Econometrics 30 (1), 24–45.
吳致寧、王學謙, 1994. 政府支出與實質景氣循環: 台灣之實証研究。. 經濟論文第 二十二卷 (第二期), 175–209.
徐子晴, 2017. 陸客去年減少 67 萬人次今年恐再減 150 萬。. 2017 年 1 月 24 日取自 聯合報系，聯合新聞網網址 https://udn.com/news/story/7314/2248933.