本研究欲透過供應鏈上下游的財務關聯性來推測供應鏈金融的潛在風險，用迴歸分析與衝擊反應函數驗證上下游企業因資訊不對稱所面臨的風險，畢竟融資機構(含金融機構或核心企業)在貸放資金時，需要了解被融資方的風險所在，進而採取對應或資助措施。由於資訊不對稱一直是供應鏈金融發展的核心問題，融資方並不知道被融資方拿到資金後是否會妥善運用、融資方會面臨何種違約風險，因此用企業利潤的變動來預測風險來源是本研究的主旨。
本研究以台灣鋼鐵業為研究產業，並以中國鋼鐵公司為核心企業。欲探討上中下游受到衝擊時企業經營績效的反應遂分為三大部分，第一部分探討的是煤、鐵礦砂的衝擊對中鋼的經營績效產生什麼影響;第二部分探討的是中鋼營業收入的衝擊對主要供應商陸海的經營績效產生什麼影響;第三部分探討的是中鋼的內銷盤價對下游-春源與中鴻之經營績效的影響。
造成EVA變動的主要因素為供應商陸海之營業收入、貨幣資本以及營運資本中的應付帳款與票據，又以陸海之營業收入和應付帳款之漲跌走勢最為一致，故本研究推測這是陸海受到外在衝擊時的主要風險來源。結果證實供應鏈上下游的財務關聯性可預測供應鏈金融的風險來源，最核心的關鍵是核心企業中鋼的營運狀況，若營運狀況良好，則會使上游供應商-陸海與下游企業-春源與中鴻所面臨的的風險大幅降低，讓台灣的鋼鐵供應鏈相較其他產業更有競爭優勢，融資機構在進行放貸時更有信心，便可降低融資的資金成本與代理人問題。

This study intends to infer the potential risks of supply chain finance through the financial correlations of integrated supply chain. Using regression analysis and impulse response function to verify the risks faced by upstream and downstream companies due to information asymmetry. When financing institutions loan funds, it’s necessary to understand the risks of the financed parties and take corresponding measures. Since information asymmetry has always been a key issue in the development of supply chain finance, the financing party doesn’t know whether the financed party will use fund properly and what kind of default risks the financing party will face. Therefore, using the difference of corporate profits to predict the source of risk is the main subject of this study.
The main factors that caused the change in EVA were the operating revenues, currency capital, and accounts payables in the working capital of the supplier - Sea & Land Integrated Corporation. Therefore, this study speculates that this is the main source of risk when Sea & Land is exposed to external shocks. The results confirm that the integrated financial relationships in the supply chain can predict the source of supply chain finance risks. The most important is the operational status of the core enterprise China Steel Corporation, the risks faced by the upstream and downstream companies will be greatly reduced. In that case, Taiwan’s steel supply chain has more competitive advantages than other industries. Financing institutions are more confident in lending, which can reduce the cost of capital and the agency problem.

目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機 3
第三節 研究目的 5
第二章 文獻探討 6
第一節 供應鏈金融的崛起 6
第二節 供應鏈金融的風險 7
第三章 研究方法 8
第一節 研究期間與資料來源 8
第二節 研究方法 9
第四章 實證結果 14
第一節 EVA變數說明 14
第二節 單根檢定 15
第三節 迴歸模型與結果 18
第四節 衝擊反應函數 24
第五章 結論 46
參考文獻 48

宋華 (2016)，供應鏈金融，中國人民大學出版社。
楊奕農 (2016)，時間序列分析：經濟與財務上之應用，雙葉書廊。
賴弘程、曾增展 (2010)，次級房貸風暴對臺股指數與國際指數互動關係之影響，臺灣銀行季刊第六十一卷第四期。
黃旭淳 (2006)，「國際原油價格對總體經濟變數之影響」，國立交通大學經營管理研究所碩士論文。
Erik Hofmann, Judith Martin (2016), “Does working capital management affect cost of capital? A first empirical attempt to build up a theory for supply chain finance”, Chair of Logistics Management, University of St.Gallen, 9000, St.Gallen, Switzerland
Moritz Leon Gomm (2010), “Supply chain finance: applying finance theory to supply chain management to enhance finance in supply chains”, International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, Volume 13, 2010 - Issue 2, 133-142
Hans-Christian Pfohl • Moritz Gomm (2009), “Supply chain finance: optimizing financial flows in supply chains”, Logistics Research December 2009, Volume 1, Issue 3–4, 149–161
Marc Deloof (2003), “Does Working Capital Management Affect Profitability of Belgian Firms?”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 30(3) & (4), April/May 2003, 0306-686X
Margarita Protopappa-Sieke Ralf W. Seifert (2017), “Benefits of working capital sharing in supply chains”, Journal of the Operational Research Society May 2017, Volume 68, Issue 5, 521–532
N. Chiadamrong (2003), “INTEGRATING ABC AND EVA TO EVALUATE INVESTMENT DECISIONS”, AJSTD Vol. 20 Issue 1, 87-95
S. Alex Yang John R. Birge (2017), “Trade Credit, Risk Sharing, and Inventory Financing Portfolios”, MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Articles in Advance, 1–23
William Ho, Tian Zheng, Hakan Yildiz & Srinivas Talluri (2015), “Supply chain risk management: a literature review”, International Journal of Production Research, 53:16, 5031-5069
Xosé H. Vázquez Antonio Sartal Luis M. Lozano-Lozano (2016), “watch the working capital of tier-two suppliers: a financial perspective of supply chain collaboration in the automotive industry”, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, Vol. 21 Issue 3.
Yongqiang Chu1 Liying Wang2 (2017), “Capital Structure Along the Supply Chain: How Does Customer Leverage Affect Supplier Leverage Decisions?”, Quart. J. of Fin. 07, 1750014 [29 pages]