中國與東協在 2002 年簽署了《中國－東協全面經濟合作框架協議》(Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-Operation Between ASEAN and the People's Republic of China)，加上原有與各國家間雙邊貿易，開始了更為深入的貿易往來，並形成更為緊密的關係。東協各國從中國的高速經濟發展與此一框架協議獲取直接或間接的幫助，使得自身經濟有長足的發展。但另一方面東協內部份國家也有著南中國海(South China Sea)領土主權爭議，因此成員國間形成既是競爭又是合作的情形。這些國家在與中國進行領土上的爭執時，似乎無法擺脫貿易依賴所形成的桎梏，造成自身立場隨著貿易不斷依賴而軟化，也讓中國隨時能夠動用貿易制裁來處理領土爭議。

菲律賓即是上述國家中非常顯著的一個例子，在本文將透過相對依賴理論此一經典理論，來檢視中國與菲律賓雙邊貿易對菲律賓的影響；以及透過不同時間點菲律賓官方對於黃岩島爭議的立場差異，來證明上述關係存在與中國與菲律賓之間。在這個雙邊關係之下，也將觀察菲律賓在領土爭議上的不斷嘗試，是否能夠有所突破，或者這些舉動皆無濟於事。另一方面處於類似情境的台灣，面對有菲律賓此一參考對象，又如何才能走出不一樣的路，也值得我們細細思考。

Since 2002, the framework agreement on comprehensive economic co-operation between ASEAN and the People's Republic of China been signed. The combination of original bilateral trade agreement and framework agreement, maked trade and economic relationship of all countries have become deeper, nations of the ASEAN take benefits from China directly or indirectly, enhancing in their economic growth. However, there are South China Sea territory disputes between China and some of the ASEAN countries, the situation in these ASEAN countries and China are in the relation which is cooperative, but competitive at the same time. Because the dependence of trade, these ASEAN countries are unlikely to get rid of the influence of China in the territory disputes, and finally to change their stance from time to time. Moreover, China can use trade sanction as a tool in any time.

Philippines is distinct sample among these countries. In the thesis will try to prove this assumption by observing the variating stances of Philippines, and the theory of interdependent. Many evidence shows that Philippines try to break through the current situation on territory disputes, but there's a great possibility to be in vain. On the other hand, Taiwan (R.O.C), which is facing the same dilemma, may learn a lesson fromPhilippines, and finally overcome the unbalanced relation.

論文審定書.....................................................................................................i
謝辭..............................................................................................................ii
中文摘要.......................................................................................................iii
英文摘要.......................................................................................................iv
目錄..............................................................................................................v

第壹章 緒論...................................................................................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的..................................................................................1
第二節 文獻回顧...........................................................................................4
第三節 理論架構...........................................................................................8
第四節 研究方法與架構................................................................................18
第五節 研究範圍與限制................................................................................21
第六節 章節安排..........................................................................................23

第貳章 中菲南海領土衝突發展與聲索領土之主張..............................................25
第一節 南海問題重要性................................................................................25
第二節 中菲雙方聲索南海區域領土之主張......................................................41
第三節 中菲黃岩島主權爭議.........................................................................52

第參章 相互依賴理論下的中菲貿易關係...........................................................60
第一節 兩國雙邊貿易分析.............................................................................60
第二節 菲律賓與中國在雙邊貿易下的敏感度與脆弱度......................................81
第三節 相互依理論下的雙邊貿易與權力運用...................................................90

第肆章 相互依賴理論下的菲律賓立場分析........................................................93
第一節 2002 年至 2012 年菲律賓相關發言與外交行為......................................93
第二節 2012 年黃岩島事件後菲律賓相關發言與外交行為................................104
第三節 從相互依賴理論觀察菲律賓之立場.....................................................121

第伍章 結論...............................................................................................127

參考文獻...................................................................................................133

圖次
圖 1-1: 研究架構與流程圖..............................................................................20
圖 2-1: 南海航道主要入口示意圖....................................................................31
圖 2-2: 亞洲石油輸入航道與地區比例示意圖....................................................32
圖 2-3: 亞洲液化天然氣輸入航道與地區比例示意圖..........................................33
圖 2-4: 南海爭議發展模式..............................................................................39
圖 2-5: 南海爭議參與行為者...........................................................................40
圖 2-6: 鄭和航海圖........................................................................................44
圖 2-7: 南海諸島位置圖.................................................................................46
圖 2-8: 中國聲稱主權主要依據—南海九段線....................................................47
圖 2-9: 菲律賓聲稱主權之範圍........................................................................50
圖 2-10: 南海領土聲索模式............................................................................51
圖 3-1: 2003-2014 年菲律賓對中國進出口總額占總進出口總額之比例................65
圖 3-2: 2003-2014 年中國對菲律賓進出口總額占總進出口總額之比例................67
圖 3-3: 2003-2014 年 菲律賓出口前三大貨品...................................................71
圖 3-4: 2003-2014 年 菲律賓進口前三大貨品...................................................75
圖 3-5: 菲律賓國民水準與勞動相關指標..........................................................78
圖 3-6: 菲律賓基礎建設相關指標....................................................................79
圖 3-7: 菲律賓對於中菲貿易關係之敏感度.......................................................82
圖 3-8: 2003-2014 年菲律賓對外貿易依存度....................................................83
圖 3-9: 菲律賓對於中菲貿易關係之脆弱度.......................................................85
圖 3-10: 中國對於中菲貿易關係之敏感度........................................................86
圖 3-11: 2003-2014 年中國對外貿易依存度.....................................................88

表次
表 3-1: 2003-2014年菲律賓出口前五大國別與佔總出口比例..............................61
表 3-2: 2003-2014年菲律賓進口前五大國別與佔總出口比例..............................62
表 3-3: 2003-2014年菲律賓年出口資料...........................................................63
表 3-4: 2003-2014年菲律賓進口資料...............................................................64
表 3-5: 2003-2014年菲律賓對中國之貿易依賴度...............................................66
表 3-6: 2003-2014年中國對外進出口貿易資料..................................................68
表 3-7: 2003-2014年菲律賓主要出口產品........................................................69
表 3-8: 2003-2014年菲律賓主要進口產品........................................................72
表 3-9: 2003-2014年菲律賓對外貿易依存度.....................................................84
表 3-10: 2003-2014年中國對外貿易依存度......................................................89

中文：
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沈克勤，2009。《南海諸島主權爭議述評》。台北：台灣學生。
俞寬賜，2002。《國際法新論》。台北：啟英文化。
浦野起央，1997。《南海諸島国際紛争史―研究・資料・年表》。東京：刀水書房。傅崑成，2008。《我國南海歷史性水域法律地位之研究》。台北：行政院研考會。劉千綺，2013。《兩岸有關南海爭議島嶼主權主張之作為：以國際法中有效統治原之探討為核心》。台北：思行文化。
顧長永，2000/7。《台灣與東南亞的政治經濟關係》。台北:風雲論壇。

2.專書譯著
佛雷德里克．皮爾森／馬丁．羅徹斯特(Frederic S.Pearson/J.Martin Rochester)，胡祖慶譯，2006。《國際關係》(International Relations)。台北：五南圖書。

3.期刊論文
王冠雄，2012/5。〈近期黃岩島爭議所涉及國際法議題分析〉，《戰略安全研》， 85 期，頁 5-11。
宋燕輝，2012/6。〈有關黃岩島爭議的國際法問題〉，《海巡雙月刊》，第 58，頁
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林正義，2012/5。〈南海爭端下中國與菲律賓關係前景〉，《戰略安全研析》，第 85 期，頁 12-19。
姜皇池，2013/6/30。〈廣大興 28 號事件評議—以漁業談判為核心之觀察〉，《新世紀智庫論壇》，第 62 期，頁 2-3。
范世平，2011/9。〈中國大陸主權財富基金發展與影響的政治經濟分析〉，《中國大陸研究》，第 54 卷 第 3 期，頁 107-143。翁子偉、羅聖宗、黃瑞賢、李建鋒，2013/6。〈南海天然氣水合物分布與資源量概況〉，《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》，第 222 期，頁 56-70。
陳逸偵，2013/12。〈南非非生物資源探勘開發之潛力、實力與風險(下) 〉，《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》，第 224 期，頁 12-19。
陳逸偵，2013/9/1。〈南非非生物資源探勘開發之潛力、實力與風險(上) 〉，《鑛冶：中國鑛冶工程學會會刊》，第 223 期，頁 9-19。
陳鴻瑜，2010/10。〈南海爭端的政治與法律面分析〉，《全球政治評論》，第 32 期，頁 1-6。
陳鴻瑜，2013/10。〈中國大陸與菲律賓為南海問題角力〉，《戰略安全研析》，第
102 期，頁 4-12。
張登及，2012/5。〈中菲黃岩島爭議與中共因應的意涵分析〉，《戰略安全研析》，第 85 期，頁 20-26。
黃富文、陳逸軒，2013/10。〈冰與火的傳奇─天然氣水合物〉，《科學發展》，490 期，頁 36-41。
趙洪，2013/7。〈南海爭端下中國與菲律賓關係前景〉，《全球政治評論》，第 43 期，頁 23-40。
劉坤鯉，2012/10。〈中國的崛起與挑戰：世界體系理論視角的分析〉，《全球政治評論》，第 44 期，頁 115-136。
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146 期，頁 75-82。

4.學位論文
簡瑞隆，2006。《從現階段台日國會交流探討台灣的國會外交》。台北:國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程碩士論文。

5.網際網路
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BBC 中文網，2011/10/14。〈菲律賓不滿中越雙邊討論南海爭端〉，《國際》，
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中國商品網，2005/8/1。〈菲律賓商業環境情況〉，《中華人民共和國商務部》，
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中華人民共和國外交部，2012/4/18。〈2012 年 4 月 18 日外交部發言人劉為民舉行例行記者會〉，《發言人表態》，
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中華人民共和國外交部，2012/4/23。〈2012 年 4 月 23 日外交部發言人劉為民舉行例行記者會〉，《發言人表態》，
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中華人民共和國外交部，2012/4/29。〈外交部發言人劉為民就所謂中國漁政船嚇唬菲船隻事答記者問〉，《發言人表態》，
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中華人民共和國外交部，2012/4/30。〈外交部發言人劉為民就菲律賓總統有關表態答記者問〉，《發言人表態》，
<http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_chn/wjdt_611265/fyrbt_611275/t927973.shtml >。中華人民共和國外交部，2012/5/7。〈2012 年 4 月 30 日外交部發言人洪磊舉行例行記者會〉，《發言人表態》，
<http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_chn/wjdt_611265/fyrbt_611275/t929450.shtml>。
中華人民共和國外交部，2012/5/9。〈2012 年 4 月 30 日外交部發言人洪磊舉行例行記者會〉，《發言人表態》，
<http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_chn/wjdt_611265/fyrbt_611275/t931606.shtml >。
中華人民共和國外交部，2012/5/14。〈2012 年 5 月 14 日外交部發言人洪磊舉行例行記者會〉，《發言人表態》，
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http://policy.mofcom.gov.cn/PDFView?id=TYFL000034&libcode=gjty >。
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English
1. Books
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2. Journal Article
Chen, Shaofeng, 2014. “China’s Energy Rise and Implications to Southeast Asia,” China: An International Journal, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 46-65.
Cook, Malcolm, 2014. “Southeast Asia and the Major Powers Engagement not Entanglement,” Southeast Asian Affairs, Vol. 2014, pp. 37-52.
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Kvenvolden, Keith A., 2010/6/14. “Gas Hydrates—Geological Perspective and Global Change,” Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 31, pp. 173-187.
Ortuoste, Maria, 2013. “The Philippines in the South China Sea: Out of Time,” Southeast Asian Affairs, Vol. 2013, pp. 240-253.

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