台灣的賦稅負擔率自1995年開始逐年下降，能改善此現況的方法為增加稅收，許多國家藉由課消費稅增加稅收，因此本文透過提高消費稅稅率的稅制改革，模擬台灣稅改的總體效果，並與提高資本稅率的稅改做比較。提高消費稅的改革在投資、產出與稅收方面均優於提高資本稅。但提高消費稅會使非儲蓄者的消費減少、加重非儲蓄者負擔。因此在提高消費稅的同時，提高了非儲蓄者移轉性收入，發現此舉對非儲蓄者消費的增加與政府債務的減少均產生正面的影響。

Tax burden as a percentage of GDP in Taiwan has gradually declined since 1995. To improve it is increasing tax revenue. Many countries increase tax revenue by taxing
consumption. Based on it, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of tax reform via increasing consumption tax or increasing capital tax in Taiwan. Increasing consumption tax has positive effects on investment, output and tax revenue than increasing capital tax. However, it will make a significant decrease in the amount of non-savers’ consumption. To ease non-savers’ burden under consumption tax, this paper studies the effects of increasing non-savers’ transfer and finds it has positive effects on increasing non-savers’ consumption and decreasing government’s debt.

論文審定書......................................................................................................... i
中文摘要............................................................................................................ ii
英文摘要............................................................................................................ iii
第一章 緒論........................................................................................................ 1
第二章 文獻回顧................................................................................................. 3
第三章 模型........................................................................................................ 6
3.1 家計單位中的儲蓄者. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.2 家計單位中的非儲蓄者. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.3 廠商. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.4 政府. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.5 市場結清. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
第四章 參數........................................................................................................ 9
4.1 參數設定. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
4.2 資料來源與處理. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
第五章 分析........................................................................................................ 12
5.1 消費稅與資本稅. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
5.2 財政政策改用非儲蓄者移轉性收入調整. . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
第六章 結論........................................................................................................ 16
參考文獻............................................................................................................ 25
附錄A 模型......................................................................................................... 27
A.1 模型最適化. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27
A.2 模型穩定狀態. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
A.3 模型線性化. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 30

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