日常生活中，消費者經常在購買產品或服務後，將其使用經驗分享給大眾；而潛在消費者在購買前也可能參照這些評論。因此，本研究以電影產業為例，探討評論對電影消費人次之影響。

　　過去的電影實證研究認為評論有兩種效果－influence effect和prediction effect；前者指評論會影響進場人次，也因此評論對進場人次有因果關係，而後者指評論跟票房只是共變，之間並無因果關係，僅是皆受無法觀察到之電影特性所影響。本研究沿用過去實證研究對於評論效果的定義，並運用追蹤資料與固定效果模型將兩種效果分離。

　　筆者使用台北地區過去8個月所有電影院之進場人次與PTT評論之資料，並運用隨機效果模型與固定效果模型進行分析。研究結果發現，正面與負面評論皆有正向的influence effect，中立評論則擁有負向的influence effect，且在隨機效果模型中，負面評論的影響更大。此外，筆者亦發現，評論對國片與好萊塢片存在不同的影響；正面評論僅對國片具有正向的influence effect，中立評論僅對好萊塢片有負向的influence effect；最後，負面評論對國片與好萊塢片皆有influence effect，但對國片為負向影響，對好萊塢片則為正向影響。

This study empirically distinguishes the influence and prediction effects of amateur film reviews on movie theater attendance by using panel data. We combine the weekly information regarding online amateur film reviews and a dataset containing the theater attendance in Taipei; we analyze these data via both random and fixed effect models. Our results indicate that both positive and negative reviews have a positive influence effect; the one having negative effects is a neutral review. Moreover, we also find that Taiwanese audience responds differently to reviews regarding native or foreign movies. For Taiwanese films, positive (negative) reviews have a positive (negative) influence effect. However, for Hollywood films, neutral (negative) reviews have a negative (positive) influence effect.

學位論文審定書 i
博碩士論文授權書 ii
誌謝 iii
中文摘要 iv
英文摘要 v
目錄 vi
表次 vii
圖次 vii
1. 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究問題 5
2. 文獻回顧 6
2.1 口碑的定義與演變 6
2.2 電影產業 10
2.3 大眾評論與專業評論 13
2.4 評論的效果 14
2.5 正負面口碑對產品銷售量之影響 18
2.6 其他影響電影銷售量之因素 19
3. 研究方法 24
3.1 資料來源 24
3.2 分析工具 35
4. 研究結果 39
4.1 敘述統計及樣本概況 39
4.2 基本分析結果 42
4.3 進階分析結果 45
5. 結論與建議 49
5.1 研究結論 49
5.2 研究建議與未來方向 50
參考文獻 52

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3. 相關網站
文化部影視及流行音樂產局. Website:http://www.bamid.gov.tw/bin/home.php
台灣經濟研究院. 2014影視廣播產業趨勢研究調查報告─電影產業. Website: http://www.tier.org.tw/
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尼爾森(2015). 口碑，最佳的廣告形式. Website: http://www.nielsen.com/tw/zh/press-room/2015/news-taiwan-trust-in-ad-2015-ch.html
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