本論文係以Poterba(1984)模型為基礎，建立一個封閉經濟體係的房屋市場模型。並引入政府對房屋持有者課徵交易稅及租賃所得稅，納入這兩種稅制來做宣示效果的分析。探討民眾在未預料到與預料到的兩種狀況下，所得稅率比率與交易稅率比率變動對房價及房屋存量的影響，並得到以下結論：
一、 當交易稅率比率提高時。不論房量變動的正負效果相對大小為何，皆會造成長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均下跌。
二、 當所得稅率比率提高時。在所得稅率變動的正效果大於負效果，長期的房屋存量與房價皆會上升。但當所得稅率變動的負效果大於正效果，長期均衡的房屋存量與房價則皆會減少。
三、 政策的宣告會造成民眾預期的改變,促使房價在政策宣告後立即產生跳動，並且在政策宣告後及政策執行前就先對房屋存量和房價做出反應。在宣告交易稅率比率提高的時點，房價產生跳躍性下降的情況；但在宣告所得稅率比率提高的時點，房價則因所得稅率變動的正負效果大小產生跳躍性上升或下降的情況。

This thesis extends the housing market model pioneered by Pertoba (1984) from a partial equilibrium analysis to a general equilibrium analysis. The main focus of this thesis is to analyze how the anticipated and unanticipated policies of transaction taxation and income tax taxation govern the transitional dynamics of housing prices and the housing stock.

　Two main findings emerge from the analysis. First, a rise in the transaction tax rate leads to a reduction in housing prices and the housing stock regardless of whether the increased transaction tax rate is beneficial or harmful to the return on housing holdings. Second, in response to a rise in the income tax rate, the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go up if increased income tax rate has a positive effect on the return on housing holdings. By contrast, both steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go down if increased income tax rate has a negative effect on the return on housing holdings.

審定書 i
謝辭 ii
摘要 iv
Abstract v
目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章　緒論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 文獻回顧 2
第三節 本文架構 3
第二章　理論模型 4
第一節　模型架構 4
第二節　動態分析 6
第三章　政策的宣示效果 16
第一節　未預料到的恆常性提高所得稅率比率 16
第二節　預料到的恆常性提高所得稅率比率 20
第三節　未預料到的恆常性提高交易稅率比率 24
第四節　預料到的恆常性提高交易稅率比率 27
第四章　結論 37
附錄A 39
附錄B 41
附錄C 42
參考文獻 43

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