自2007年金融危機以來，總體經濟學對零利率下限這一問題進行了深入研究。本文通過一個簡單的隨機總體模型，運用圖解分析的方法，從利率目標區的角度來討論零利率下限是否對相關經濟變量有安定的作用。在標準的IS-LM和AD-AS架構下，我們發現零利率下限將會影響民眾對於物價變動的預期。當經濟體系面臨總合供給面干擾時，零利率下限將會加大物價及利率的波動幅度但會減緩產出的波動幅度；然而，當經濟體系面臨實質貨幣需求面的干擾時，零利率下限將會加大利率的波動幅度但會減緩物價及產出的波動幅度。

Since the financial meltdown of 2007, macroeconomic theory has delved more deeply into the zero lower bound problem.Based on a simple stochastic macro model, this paper uses a graphical presentation to examines whether the zero lower bound tends to stabilize or destabilize the relevant macroeconomic variables from the viewpoint of interest rate target zones. Within the standard IS-LM and AD-AS framework, we find that the zero lower bound will affect the public's inflation expectations. We also find that, when the economy experiences an aggregate supply shock, the zero lower bound will raise the variability of both domestic prices and the interest rate but reduce the variability of domestic output. However, when the economy experiences an actual money demand shock, the zero lower bound tends to raise the variability of the interest rate but reduce the variability of both prices and output.

摘要......................................................................................................................i
Abstract................................................................................................................ii
目錄.....................................................................................................................iii
圖目錄..................................................................................................................iv
第一章 緒論........................................................................................................1
1.1 研究背景................................................................................................1
1.2 文獻回顧................................................................................................3
1.3 研究方法................................................................................................6
1.4 本文架構................................................................................................8
第二章 理論模型..................................................................................................9
第三章 總合供給面干擾.......................................................................................21
3.1 政府干預...............................................................................................21
3.2 流動性陷阱...........................................................................................26
3.3 蜜月效果...............................................................................................30
第四章 貨幣需求面干擾.......................................................................................33
4.1 政府干預...............................................................................................33
4.2 流動性陷阱...........................................................................................37
4.3 蜜月效果...............................................................................................39
第五章 結論........................................................................................................43
附錄A ................................................................................................................45
附錄B ................................................................................................................47
參考文獻 ............................................................................................................49

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