本文以巴拉薩—薩繆爾森效果及泰勒法則估計均衡匯率，並遵循Rodrik(2008)之迴歸模型，探討實際之實質匯率與不同均衡匯率下匯率錯置與經濟成長之影響；並引入經濟成長持續性以及政策面控制因素，探討實證結果之穩健性。實證結果發現，對於已開發國家、開發中國家及亞洲開發國家，在巴拉薩—薩繆爾森效果下，貨幣低估有利於經濟成長，而在泰勒法則下，貨幣高估則不利於經濟成長；此外經濟成長的持續性有利於經濟成長，而政策面因素如民間投資、貿易開放及政府消費，實證結果顯示民間投資及貿易開放有利於經濟成長，政府消費則不利於經濟成長，且前述匯率錯置對經濟成長的影響並不因政策面因素的考慮而有所改變。

This paper first estimates equilibrium exchange rates based on a Taylor-rule model and the PPP model augmented with the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We then apply to panel data of 105 countries to examine the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate misalignments.
Empirical results point out that currency undervaluation with the B-S effect being controlled promotes economic growth. On the other hand, currency overvaluation, based on the Taylor-rule model, hurts economic growth. Furthermore, these results are robust to the control of the persistence of economic growth and of other policy variables.

謝辭 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
圖次 vi
表次 vii
一 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究架構 2
二 文獻回顧 3
三 研究方法 14
3.1 追蹤資料分析法(Panel data analysis) 14
3.2 實證模型設定 15
3.3 Robustness: 不同實質匯率估計方法 18
3.4 Robustness: 橫斷面迴歸(Cross-Sectional Regression) 19
3.5 動態Panel data模型-應用一般動差估計法(GMM) 20
四 實證結果分析 23
4.1 資料來源與說明 23
4.2 實證結果 25
五 結論 37
參考文獻 38

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