由於可能發生的設備故障及負載變動使得電力系統形成一種隨機的特性，因此將系統的不確性因素考慮進去以增加可傳輸容量計算的精確性變得重要。本論文提出一種隨機方法"Bootstrap"提供一個準確的法則以估測使用歷史資料及未來假設條件所計算出的ATC。Bootstrap是一種以電腦為基礎的統計技術，它可將計算的精確性轉變成統計推測量。測試結果顯示當系統考慮負載及斷線故障之不確定因素時，藉由Bootstrap的技術可將ATC計算的結果變為一個可信賴的區間，使買賣ATC時更具彈性進而協助電力市場交易者在價格及風險上的評估分析。

Because of the essentially stochastic nature of power systems behavior, mainly due to random equipment outages and load variations, it is very important to consider uncertainties of power systems to promote the accuracy of Available Transfer Capability (ATC) calculations. This paper proposed a probabilistic technique "Bootstrap" to provide an accuracy criteria for ATC estimation that uses historical data and a future postulated condition. The bootstrap is a computer-based method for assigning measures of accuracy to statistical estimates. Test results showed that when the uncertainties of loads and line outages were considered, using the proposed probabilistic approach the confidence intervals could reflect the accuracy of the posted ATC values and it will be more flexible in bidding ATC to further aid transmission customers in their evaluation of transaction biddings and risk analysis.

目 錄

誌謝 ……………………………………………………………………I
論文提要 ………………………………………………………………II
目錄 ……………………………………………………………………IV
圖目錄 …………………………………………………………………VI
表目錄 …………………………………………………………………VII

第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………1
1-1 研究背景與動機…………………………………1
1-2 論文綱要…………………………………………16
第二章 可傳輸容量計算…………………………………………18
2-1 無故障情況下之可傳輸容量計算………………22
2-2 線路故障情況下之可傳輸容量…………………30
2-2-1 線路故障模擬…………………………33
2-2-2 單一線路故障可傳輸容量計算………37
第三章 隨機可傳輸容量…………………………………………45
3-1 Bootstrap方法……………………………………46
3-2 隨機可傳輸容量計算……………………………49
3-3 可傳輸容量之風險評估…………………………53
第四章 模擬測試…………………………………………………56
4-1 敏感度矩陣之準確度測試………………………58
4-2 斷線模擬測試……………………………………61
4-3 隨機可傳輸容量測試……………………………66
第五章 結論與未來研究方向……………………………………74
參考文獻………………………………………………………………76
附錄：測試系統參數值………………………………………………82

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