Title page for etd-0615109-150828


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URN etd-0615109-150828
Author Chin-hui Su
Author's Email Address No Public.
Statistics This thesis had been viewed 5582 times. Download 2541 times.
Department EMBA
Year 2008
Semester 2
Degree Master
Type of Document
Language zh-TW.Big5 Chinese
Title Forming of Enterprise's Crisis and Building the Crisis Forecasting Models
Date of Defense 2009-06-06
Page Count 62
Keyword
  • Crisis Early Warning Model
  • DEA-DA
  • Logistic Regression
  • Abstract Due to the global competition, the survival of enterprises must face the major test. Since the poor management of the market will increase number of companies, so the crisis early warning model of business has the necessary to establish. The cause of financial crisis is the main source of financial situation of the deteriorating. Therefore, if we could analysis the facets and weights of potential affect factors through the financial and managerial situation of business to judge the crisis cause of a corporation and establish the early warning model is worth to discuss deeply.
    The precious year of companies’ data that this study collecting are from the Taiwan Securities Exchange 2006/01/01-2008/12/31 which have been out of the open security market based on the analysis standards and omitting the less information and banking, have total 36 enterprises data for analysis. The application of total variables, this study pre-adapts the TEJ business credit risk indicators to integrate the documentation and analysis the fundamental variables.
    It can be seen that all the factors have the relationship with each other through this study. This highlights a very important message, and also to the crisis among the factors and normal company with a considerable fluctuations. The judging results of DEA-DA model show that most of the company might be affected with some important factors of interpretation in abnormal situation to let the company in crisis cluster. Through Logistic regression analysis results show that our study forecasting model has the great explanatory power to meet the behavior of interpretation with the crisis and normal companies.
    By the enterprises crisis model of this study building to assess and forecast the crisis situation have the same results with the simplified model constructing with key factors to affect the original model direction. This study shows a very important fact that the crisis forecasting models will not be simplified to change the outcome which also indicating to increase of variables won’t change the results of the assessment. In accordance with this study proposed model, if value positive that would be show more and more vulnerable to crisis. By other words, if value negative that would be more small vulnerable to crisis.
    Advisory Committee
  • Ming-rea Kao - chair
  • Pei-how Huang - co-chair
  • David Shyu - advisor
  • Files
  • etd-0615109-150828.pdf
  • indicate access worldwide
    Date of Submission 2009-06-15

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